Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Debt Capital Markets

Fidelity Funds - Asian High Yield Fund / Debt Capital Markets

Fidelity Funds - Asian High Yield Fund IS AN OPEN END FUND INCORPORATED IN LUXEMBOURG

Fidelity Funds - Asian High Yield Fund (FFASIAU LX)

<ul>
<li>The Fed hiked 25 bps to 3.75-4.00% on 16-Sep as WTI returned near USD100/bbl; we expect Asian USD bond yields to stay elevated and spreads to widen into year-end. </li>
<li>We keep Asian USD bonds at Neutral at best and advise investors to favor floating rate bonds, Bond Laddering, duration below five years, and swap hedges on fixed rate positions. </li>
<li>We remain positive on Asian credit fundamentals and list 10 fixed rate picks yielding 7.4-10.8%, led by Avation at +233 bps over B-rated peers; we exclude China property.</li>
</ul>


The Fed hiked 25 bps to 3.75-4.00% on 16-Sep as WTI returned near USD100/bbl; we expect Asian USD bond yields to stay elevated and spreads to widen into year-end. 
We keep Asian USD bonds at Neutral at best and advise investors to favor floating rate bonds, Bond Laddering, duration below five years, and swap hedges on fixed rate positions. 
We remain positive on Asian credit fundamentals and list 10 fixed rate picks yielding 7.4-10.8%, led by Avation at +233 bps over B-rated peers; we exclude China property.


Asia High Yield Bond Index / Debt Capital Markets

iShares Barclays USD Asia High Yield Bond Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Singapore. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays Capital USD Asia High Yield Bond Index.

<ul>
<li>What has changed since our July ABM is that the ceasefire we carefully described did not hold, and oil has round-tripped roughly halfway back toward war-peak levels.</li>
<li>Fixed rate bonds that rely on discretionary spending should underperform floating rate bonds while the beneficiaries of the trade have shifted from energy exposure toward carry and short-duration positioning.</li>
<li>We remain positive on Asian credit fundamentals and, for those who must invest in fixed rate bonds, we list 9 bonds which we like at the time of this report</li>
</ul>


What has changed since our July ABM is that the ceasefire we carefully described did not hold, and oil has round-tripped roughly halfway back toward war-peak levels.
Fixed rate bonds that rely on discretionary spending should underperform floating rate bonds while the beneficiaries of the trade have shifted from energy exposure toward carry and short-duration positioning.
We remain positive on Asian credit fundamentals and, for those who must invest in fixed rate bonds, we list 9 bonds which we like at the time of this report


<ul>
<li>What has changed since our ABM in May is the vulnerable ceasefire, which President Trump called it over, and the partial unwind of the oil-driven war premium.  </li>
<li>The oil shock has partially unwound and growth data has held up but inflation and rates remain elevated for a different reason; a hawkish new Fed Chairman.</li>
<li>We maintain our bearish stance on fixed rate bonds on elevated and volatile oil prices which should result in elevated rates. We remain positive in Asian credit fundamentals</li>
</ul>


What has changed since our ABM in May is the vulnerable ceasefire, which President Trump called it over, and the partial unwind of the oil-driven war premium.  
The oil shock has partially unwound and growth data has held up but inflation and rates remain elevated for a different reason; a hawkish new Fed Chairman.
We maintain our bearish stance on fixed rate bonds on elevated and volatile oil prices which should result in elevated rates. We remain positive in Asian credit fundamentals


<ul>
<li>A spike in oil prices usually leads to a spike in credit spread of risky assets.</li>
<li>We expect rising oil prices to boost inflation worldwide. G-3 rates have been low and we expect rates to start increasing towards the second half of 2026.</li>
<li>Countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia should benefit from an oil spike while India, the Philippines, and Thailand could suffer from margin compression.</li>
</ul>


A spike in oil prices usually leads to a spike in credit spread of risky assets.
We expect rising oil prices to boost inflation worldwide. G-3 rates have been low and we expect rates to start increasing towards the second half of 2026.
Countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia should benefit from an oil spike while India, the Philippines, and Thailand could suffer from margin compression.


THAI CDS USD SR 5Y D14 / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Here we go full circle to write a policy framework paper to suggest solutions on how to develop the country’s corporate bond market from an international investor’s perspective.</li>
<li>The corporate bond market is not constrained by capital, but by trust, information, and participation.</li>
<li>A lack of bond knowledge among Thai retail investors stems from a lack of research which stems from a lack of participation from domestic buyside firms which fund research coverage.</li>
</ul>


Here we go full circle to write a policy framework paper to suggest solutions on how to develop the country’s corporate bond market from an international investor’s perspective.
The corporate bond market is not constrained by capital, but by trust, information, and participation.
A lack of bond knowledge among Thai retail investors stems from a lack of research which stems from a lack of participation from domestic buyside firms which fund research coverage.


Asian Bond Monitor: Thai Corporate Bond Blunders

* Fixed income research professional with 20+ years of experience covering financial institutions, corporates, and sovereigns with a global client network.
* Supervisory experience since 2002
* FINRA's supervisory analyst from 2006-2008
* Responsible officer and an SFC-licensed analyst since 2011
* Regular speaker at fixed income events in Asia
* Ranked Asian 4th Best Fixed Income Analyst (FinanceAsia, Nov’08)
* Ranked Asian 2nd Best Corporate Credit Analyst (FMAP, June’07)

Warut Promboon
Independent Asian Credit Research
• Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Stay A-Float

The Fed hikes into an oil shock near USD100/bbl. We expect Asian USD bond yields to keep rising. Stay Neutral, favor floaters and ladder short...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: No Final Whistle

This report is not easy-to-digest.While we do not recommend investment in fixed rate Asian USD bonds in general, those who must stay invested...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: No Oil Unwind (Yet)

Ceasefire vulnerability and oil price unwind post-ABM in May, with inflation and rates still elevated due to hawkish Fed Chairman. Bearish on...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Oil Shock 2.0

Rising oil prices will impact credit spreads of risky assets and inflation worldwide, with G-3 rates likely to increase in the second half of...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Thai Corporate Bond Blunders

Policy paper outlines solutions to develop corporate bond market, highlighting trust, information, and participation barriers. It is all about a...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Stay A-Float

The Fed hikes into an oil shock near USD100/bbl. We expect Asian USD bond yields to keep rising. Stay Neutral, favor floaters and ladder short...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: No Final Whistle

This report is not easy-to-digest.While we do not recommend investment in fixed rate Asian USD bonds in general, those who must stay invested...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: No Oil Unwind (Yet)

​Ceasefire vulnerability and oil price unwind post-ABM in May, with inflation and rates still elevated due to hawkish Fed Chairman. Bearish on...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Oil Shock 2.0

​Rising oil prices will impact credit spreads of risky assets and inflation worldwide, with G-3 rates likely to increase in the second half of...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Thai Corporate Bond Blunders

​Policy paper outlines solutions to develop corporate bond market, highlighting trust, information, and participation barriers. It is all about a...

Bondcritic

Ceasefire vulnerability and oil price unwind post-ABM in May, with inflation and rates still elevated due to hawkish Fed Chairman. Bearish on...

Rising oil prices will impact credit spreads of risky assets and inflation worldwide, with G-3 rates likely to increase in the second half of...

Policy paper outlines solutions to develop corporate bond market, highlighting trust, information, and participation barriers. It is all about a...