Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.</li><li>UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.</li><li>Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.</li></ul>

The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ahold Delhaize | Carrefour firmly denies possible exit from Belgium Carrefour has firmly denied any intention to exit Belgium after media reports suggested its local operations were under review.</li>
<li>With roughly 700 stores, the company maintains one of the largest retail networks in the country.</li>
<li>However, its Belgian revenues - estimated at EUR 4.0–4.5bn - lag far behind peers that operate far fewer outlets. </li>
</ul>


Ahold Delhaize | Carrefour firmly denies possible exit from Belgium Carrefour has firmly denied any intention to exit Belgium after media reports suggested its local operations were under review.
With roughly 700 stores, the company maintains one of the largest retail networks in the country.
However, its Belgian revenues - estimated at EUR 4.0–4.5bn - lag far behind peers that operate far fewer outlets. 


<ul><li>The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.</li><li>A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.</li><li>Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.</li></ul>

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.

<ul><li>A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.</li><li>The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.</li><li>Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.</li></ul>

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.

<ul><li>Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.</li><li>Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.</li><li>Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.</li></ul>

Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.

Belgium
Insights on Belgium

HEW: Easing Before The Festive Storm

The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE...

Phil Rush

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Ahold Delhaize | Carrefour firmly denies possible exit from Belgium Carrefour has firmly denied any intention to exit Belgium after media reports...

The IDEA!

Activity Thaws Into Winter

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to...

Phil Rush

EA: False Dawn For Disinflation

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by...

Phil Rush

HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges

Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month. Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is...

Phil Rush