Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The formal delisting of China Evergrande will have an impact on its stakeholders, including the equity investors, creditors as well as Chinese homebuyers</li>
<li>There is a shift of government attitude from “intervention” to “stabilization”.  It is challenging for other developers who are facing liquidity crisis, e.g. China South City also suspend trading</li>
<li>For trade ideas, we recommend investors stick with SOE (e.g. COLI) with no bankrupty risk to bet on Chinese property recovery and short private stressed developers (e.g. Country Garden)</li>
</ul>


The formal delisting of China Evergrande will have an impact on its stakeholders, including the equity investors, creditors as well as Chinese homebuyers
There is a shift of government attitude from “intervention” to “stabilization”.  It is challenging for other developers who are facing liquidity crisis, e.g. China South City also suspend trading
For trade ideas, we recommend investors stick with SOE (e.g. COLI) with no bankrupty risk to bet on Chinese property recovery and short private stressed developers (e.g. Country Garden)


China Property: The Implication of Evergrande's De-Listing

<ul>
<li>2025 YTD, HK/China RE companies rebounded from recent lows (10% - 30%), and we think this will continue and turn into a sector re-rating</li>
<li>A combination of reduced global geopolitical tensions, expected monetary easing from US, China’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, HK’s robust capital inflow and lower interbank rate will support re-rating</li>
<li>Despite recent rebound, valuation remains attractive.  We recommend LONG COLI 688 HK and SHKP 16 HK.  For higher risk tolerance and higher beta, we recommend NWD 17 HK</li>
</ul>


2025 YTD, HK/China RE companies rebounded from recent lows (10% - 30%), and we think this will continue and turn into a sector re-rating
A combination of reduced global geopolitical tensions, expected monetary easing from US, China’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, HK’s robust capital inflow and lower interbank rate will support re-rating
Despite recent rebound, valuation remains attractive.  We recommend LONG COLI 688 HK and SHKP 16 HK.  For higher risk tolerance and higher beta, we recommend NWD 17 HK


HK/China Real Estate Bottoming Out, Upcoming Re-Rating with Multiple Catalysts

<ul>
<li>We initiated research on the China property management sector.  The PMC sector is characterized by its asset light nature, stable recurring revenue as well as net cash balance sheet</li>
<li>The relationship between PMCs and parent developer is multi-faceted.  Although PMCs are fundamentally safer, we think investors need to restore their confidence in developers first for re-rating to occur</li>
<li>For investors with higher risk tolerance, we think LONG CR MixC and LONG COPL (both backed by SOE developers) offer a favourable risk-reward profile</li>
</ul>


We initiated research on the China property management sector.  The PMC sector is characterized by its asset light nature, stable recurring revenue as well as net cash balance sheet
The relationship between PMCs and parent developer is multi-faceted.  Although PMCs are fundamentally safer, we think investors need to restore their confidence in developers first for re-rating to occur
For investors with higher risk tolerance, we think LONG CR MixC and LONG COPL (both backed by SOE developers) offer a favourable risk-reward profile


China Property Management Sector: Navigating Turbulence for Investment Opportunities

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-in-hindsight-on-2024-and-draw-the-line-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Draw the Line' survey</a>, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025</li>
<li>Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024</li>
<li>Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)</li>
</ul>


This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual 'Draw the Line' survey, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025
Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024
Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)


China Property: 2025 "Draw The Line" Forecasts for New Home Sales - Results