Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. </li>
<li>The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.</li>
<li>Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. 
The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.
Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.


14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>TOP STORIES China Signals Continued Stimulus With Elevated Deficits in 2026 China will maintain elevated budget deficits and government debt levels in 2026 as part of a broader strategy to sustain stimulus and keep public spending on an upward trajectory, Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said Tuesday.</li><li>China Launches $72 Billion Loan Guarantee Plan to Boost Private Sector Lending China on Tuesday unveiled a 500 billion yuan ($72 billion) state-backed loan guarantee program aimed at boosting private investment and easing credit access for small and midsize enterprises, marking a major shift in how lending risks are distributed between banks and the government.</li><li>FINANCE &amp; ECONOMY Shanghai Futures Exchange Tightens Rules Amid Precious Metals Surge The Shanghai Futures Exchange will raise margin requirements and widen daily price limits for gold, silver, copper and aluminum futures contracts starting this week, in an effort to rein in risk amid a sharp rally in precious metals.</li></ul>

TOP STORIES China Signals Continued Stimulus With Elevated Deficits in 2026 China will maintain elevated budget deficits and government debt levels in 2026 as part of a broader strategy to sustain stimulus and keep public spending on an upward trajectory, Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said Tuesday.China Launches $72 Billion Loan Guarantee Plan to Boost Private Sector Lending China on Tuesday unveiled a 500 billion yuan ($72 billion) state-backed loan guarantee program aimed at boosting private investment and easing credit access for small and midsize enterprises, marking a major shift in how lending risks are distributed between banks and the government.FINANCE &amp; ECONOMY Shanghai Futures Exchange Tightens Rules Amid Precious Metals Surge The Shanghai Futures Exchange will raise margin requirements and widen daily price limits for gold, silver, copper and aluminum futures contracts starting this week, in an effort to rein in risk amid a sharp rally in precious metals.

CX Daily: China Signals Continued Stimulus With Elevated Deficits in 2026 

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>China: Growth Slows, Stimulus Likely Ahead: Q3 GDP rose 4.8% YoY, below earlier quarters and forecasts (previously expected 5.5% FY growth, now trimmed to 5.1%).</li><li>Japan: Policy Stagnation and Structural Decline: New LDP leader and PM, Mrs. Takaichi, signals more of the same “Abenomics” playbook — fiscal stimulus and ultra-low rates.</li><li>Regional and Market Sentiment: The Bangkok roundtable consensus was broadly cautious — China’s sub-5% growth outlook and Southeast Asia’s softening momentum weighed on sentiment.</li></ul>

China: Growth Slows, Stimulus Likely Ahead: Q3 GDP rose 4.8% YoY, below earlier quarters and forecasts (previously expected 5.5% FY growth, now trimmed to 5.1%).Japan: Policy Stagnation and Structural Decline: New LDP leader and PM, Mrs. Takaichi, signals more of the same “Abenomics” playbook — fiscal stimulus and ultra-low rates.Regional and Market Sentiment: The Bangkok roundtable consensus was broadly cautious — China’s sub-5% growth outlook and Southeast Asia’s softening momentum weighed on sentiment.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 24 Oct 2025

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to trade sideways down today, with the support at 1,250/1,236 and the resistance at 1,268/1,280.</li><li>External factors are viewed as neutral, with renewed US–China tensions offset by the Fed’s signal to inject liquidity.</li><li>Domestically, the outlook is slightly positive ahead of today’s Economic Cabinet meeting, which may unveil a four-month economic stimulus plan.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways down today, with the support at 1,250/1,236 and the resistance at 1,268/1,280.External factors are viewed as neutral, with renewed US–China tensions offset by the Fed’s signal to inject liquidity.Domestically, the outlook is slightly positive ahead of today’s Economic Cabinet meeting, which may unveil a four-month economic stimulus plan.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 15, 2025

<ul><li>We expect the SET Index to trade sideways up today, with the resistance at 1,313/1,333 and the support at 1,300/1,285.</li><li>Although the MPC’s decision to hold rates against market expectations may pressure financial stocks, it should support banks and stocks benefiting from government stimulus measures.</li><li>The MPC voted 5–2 to maintain the policy rate at 1.5%, with two members supporting a cut to 1.25%.</li></ul>

We expect the SET Index to trade sideways up today, with the resistance at 1,313/1,333 and the support at 1,300/1,285.Although the MPC’s decision to hold rates against market expectations may pressure financial stocks, it should support banks and stocks benefiting from government stimulus measures.The MPC voted 5–2 to maintain the policy rate at 1.5%, with two members supporting a cut to 1.25%.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 9, 2025