Research from ACF Equity Research, ACF Equity Research

ACF Equity Research

Research from ACF Equity Research

Accuracy | Clarity | Foresight

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Equity Bottom-Up

Ariana Resources is an AIM and ASX-listed mineral exploration and development company focused on precious and technology metals, primarily gold, silver, copper, and zinc. The company is involved in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resources, with interests in active mining projects and investments in exploration companies across Turkey, Zimbabwe, Cyprus, and Kosovo. Ariana Resources plc was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in London, United Kingdom.

<ul><li>Ariana Resources plc (LSE:AAU; ASX:AA2), an AIM and ASX-quoted gold miner, has re-based into a focused, single-asset gold developer: 100% owner of the 1.13Moz JORC Ore Reserve Dokwe project in Zimbabwe, following a phased reduction of its Turkish minority interests.</li><li>The May 2026 PFS values Dokwe at a post-tax NPV10 of US$740m and a 92% IRR at $4,250 toz — against an Ariana post balance sheet event (PBSE) EV of ~£15m, a gap that is central to the investment case.</li><li>The realised Turkish disposal proceeds and a Hong Kong strategic investor (Xinhai) have led to £17.3m of cash and a multi-quarter runway before any Dokwe construction-financing decision is required.</li></ul>

Ariana Resources plc (LSE:AAU; ASX:AA2), an AIM and ASX-quoted gold miner, has re-based into a focused, single-asset gold developer: 100% owner of the 1.13Moz JORC Ore Reserve Dokwe project in Zimbabwe, following a phased reduction of its Turkish minority interests.The May 2026 PFS values Dokwe at a post-tax NPV10 of US$740m and a 92% IRR at $4,250 toz — against an Ariana post balance sheet event (PBSE) EV of ~£15m, a gap that is central to the investment case.The realised Turkish disposal proceeds and a Hong Kong strategic investor (Xinhai) have led to £17.3m of cash and a multi-quarter runway before any Dokwe construction-financing decision is required.

Ariana Resources AAU.L AA2.AX Core Investment Case 14102026

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While the HSI lost 5.1% YTD, the bottom-most 5 constituents were down an average of 45.8%. As we approach the year-end, we examine whether there is room for performance revival.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-aaf6a428-6d9d-4e25-80e7-18533df0745e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> is the best bet, as the anti-monopoly penalty is now behind it. The sell-off has also moderated, suggesting the market is refocusing on the merits.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> has a significant PER compression, leaving room for a rebound. However, the risk is more in a potential earnings downgrade. </li>
</ul>


While the HSI lost 5.1% YTD, the bottom-most 5 constituents were down an average of 45.8%. As we approach the year-end, we examine whether there is room for performance revival.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) is the best bet, as the anti-monopoly penalty is now behind it. The sell-off has also moderated, suggesting the market is refocusing on the merits.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) has a significant PER compression, leaving room for a rebound. However, the risk is more in a potential earnings downgrade. 


Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

OceanaGold Philippines, Inc. is a leading producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, engaged in the exploration, development, and utilization of mineral resources. The company operates the Didipio gold and copper mine in the northern Luzon region, producing gold dore bars (containing gold and silver) and copper concentrate. It was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya, Philippines.

<ul>
<li>
Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
<li>
 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
<li>
Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
</ul>



Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Mineros S.A. provides exploration and mining services. The Company explores and develops gold projects. Mineros serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>MSA’s Q3 gold production of 62.6Koz came in +3% ahead of our forecast and is highlighted by a +14% YoY increase on operational improvements.</li>
<li>The Company has increased 2026 guidance for a second time to 235-245Koz (previously 220-240Koz).</li>
<li>9-month gold production of 181.5Koz has increased +11% YoY on growth at both Hemco and Nechí.</li>
</ul>


MSA’s Q3 gold production of 62.6Koz came in +3% ahead of our forecast and is highlighted by a +14% YoY increase on operational improvements.
The Company has increased 2026 guidance for a second time to 235-245Koz (previously 220-240Koz).
9-month gold production of 181.5Koz has increased +11% YoY on growth at both Hemco and Nechí.


MSA: 2026 Guidance Raised for Second Time This Year

APAC Capital Markets, Guzzler Chronicles

Anshul Trivedi

APAC Capital Markets

Guzzler Chronicles

Why "The Guzzler Chronicles"? This note sets out my current state of mind, and that view rests on several conditions: where yields sit, which way inflation is moving, how concentrated earnings growth is, and how stretched the charts are. Those conditions will change as the data and my analysis change, and my view will change with them. This is the first instalment of a series. Later notes will go deeper into individual topics raised here and will refer back to this one as the baseline.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold: GLD/SPY is +0.35 SD from its 5-year mean, about 31% below the February high and is almost back to mean. </li>
<li>Beta is "off the charts": SPHB/SPLV is +2.6 SD on the 5-year view, above the +2 SD band and about 3% below the 2 Oct high. </li>
<li>Central banks remain steady buyers: the World Gold Council expects about 850t in 2026, close to 2025's ~863t</li>
</ul>


Gold: GLD/SPY is +0.35 SD from its 5-year mean, about 31% below the February high and is almost back to mean. 
Beta is "off the charts": SPHB/SPLV is +2.6 SD on the 5-year view, above the +2 SD band and about 3% below the 2 Oct high. 
Central banks remain steady buyers: the World Gold Council expects about 850t in 2026, close to 2025's ~863t
