Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

UPL Ltd. manufactures, distributes and exports off-patent agrochemicals. The Company also manufactures phosphorus & phosphorus-based compounds and its products include herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, fumigants and rodenticides. United Phosphorus also manufactures industrial chemicals, specialty chemicals and chloralkaline products

UPL Limited's Q4/23-24 results appear to be better than in the past three quarters, with lower declines registered for revenues and EBITDA. That said, we note that this was against a low comparison base, with Q4/22-23 marking the beginning of the downturn. The company has been severely affected by post-patent competition and cheap supply from China, with these not likely to improve much in the near term. The financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, and is now not consistent with the Ba1/BB/BB+ rating. While liquidity appears to be adequate, we expect it to weaken during the year as the company takes on working-capital debt. We highlight that while leverage and the liquidity profile tend to be better at financial year-end, they typically deteriorate significantly during the year. However, the USD 500 mn right issuance should shore up the balance sheet significantly.

  UPL Limited's Q4/23-24 results appear to be better than in the past three quarters, with lower declines registered for revenues and EBITDA. That said, we note that this was against a low comparison base, with Q4/22-23 marking the beginning of the downturn. The company has been severely affected by post-patent competition and cheap supply from China, with these not likely to improve much in the near term. The financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, and is now not consistent with the Ba1/BB/BB+ rating. While liquidity appears to be adequate, we expect it to weaken during the year as the company takes on working-capital debt. We highlight that while leverage and the liquidity profile tend to be better at financial year-end, they typically deteriorate significantly during the year. However, the USD 500 mn right issuance should shore up the balance sheet significantly. 

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles. The Company designs, manufactures, and sells heavy, medium, and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

Tata Motors' Q4 and FY 2023-24 results were excellent in our view, with record high revenue and earnings. Net debt plunged by such a large amount that the Indian business has turned net cash, and the group remained on track to be overall net automotive debt free in FY 2024-25.

  Tata Motors' Q4 and FY 2023-24 results were excellent in our view, with record high revenue and earnings. Net debt plunged by such a large amount that the Indian business has turned net cash, and the group remained on track to be overall net automotive debt free in FY 2024-25. 

Tata Motors - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Greentown China Holdings Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company builds residential villas, low-rise apartment buildings, and high-rise apartment buildings for middle and high-income people.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6061'>Adaro Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8954'>Greentown China</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-22202'>Vedanta Resources</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Adaro EnergyGreentown ChinaVedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Greentown China, Vedanta Resources

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone / Credit

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone operates a shipping port on the west coast of India.  The Company's port provides services for bulk and container cargo, crude oil, and railway and other added services.

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has released FY 2023-24 numbers that were slightly above expectations. The company's strong revenue and EBITDA growth (of 28% and 24% y-o-y, respectively) exceeded management’s guidance, supported by higher than estimated growth in cargo volumes. APSEZ appears poised to achieve its target of 500 MMT cargo volumes in 2025, supported by organic growth and the contribution from its latest acquisition (Gopalpur Port). Net adjusted leverage improved to 2.9x (FY 2022-23: 4.0x). We expect leverage to be stable in FY 2024-25, in line with management's guidance. APSEZ appears to have a renewed appetite for expansion (particularly in overseas markets, amid its already strong domestic position), which may present event risks. In the meantime, the company may remain affected by negative headlines related to corporate governance issues at the broader Adani Group.

  Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has released FY 2023-24 numbers that were slightly above expectations. The company's strong revenue and EBITDA growth (of 28% and 24% y-o-y, respectively) exceeded management’s guidance, supported by higher than estimated growth in cargo volumes. APSEZ appears poised to achieve its target of 500 MMT cargo volumes in 2025, supported by organic growth and the contribution from its latest acquisition (Gopalpur Port). Net adjusted leverage improved to 2.9x (FY 2022-23: 4.0x). We expect leverage to be stable in FY 2024-25, in line with management's guidance.   APSEZ appears to have a renewed appetite for expansion (particularly in overseas markets, amid its already strong domestic position), which may present event risks. In the meantime, the company may remain affected by negative headlines related to corporate governance issues at the broader Adani Group. 

Adani Ports - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is an integrated energy company. The Company explores for and produces oil and gas both in Indonesia and internationally, operates gas-fired power plants in Panaran I, Batam Island, and develops renewable fuels such as Bio-fuel.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-29012'>Adani Green Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8258'>Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20844'>Medco Energi</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8550'>Pakuwon Jati</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Adani Green EnergyJapfa Comfeed IndonesiaMedco EnergiPakuwon Jati

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Medco Energi, Pakuwon Jati

India Bonds
Insights on India Credit

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

UPL Limited's Q4/23-24 results appear to be better than in the past three quarters, with lower declines registered for revenues and EBITDA. That...

Lucror Analytics

Tata Motors - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Tata Motors' Q4 and FY 2023-24 results were excellent in our view, with record high revenue and earnings. Net debt plunged by such a large amount...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Greentown China, Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Adani Ports - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has released FY 2023-24 numbers that were slightly above expectations. The company's strong revenue...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Medco Energi, Pakuwon Jati

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics