Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.</li>
<li>DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.</li>
<li>Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.</li>
</ul>


DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.
DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.
Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.


DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Malaysia's PE and P/BV are at significant discounts to their long-term means. Thailand is at a small discount. Indonesia and Philippines are at very large discounts to their long-term averages.</li>
<li>Singapore's PE and P/BV are at large premiums to long-term averages. Despite the improvement in governance and high dividend yield, they don't seem justified by forward EPS growth and ROE.</li>
<li>In the near term, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia could rerate. However, "higher for longer" US yields could prevent significant rerating of the first two. Thai valuations could stay flat for now.</li>
</ul>


Malaysia's PE and P/BV are at significant discounts to their long-term means. Thailand is at a small discount. Indonesia and Philippines are at very large discounts to their long-term averages.
Singapore's PE and P/BV are at large premiums to long-term averages. Despite the improvement in governance and high dividend yield, they don't seem justified by forward EPS growth and ROE.
In the near term, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia could rerate. However, "higher for longer" US yields could prevent significant rerating of the first two. Thai valuations could stay flat for now.


Asian Equities: Valuations in ASEAN Markets Are More Divergent than Rest of Asia

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Singapore's Dubai cracking margin turned negative on 9 September (–US$2.93) while the USGC LLS margin sits at US$53.18, the top of its five-year range.</li>
<li>Cause: Dubai crude now trades above Dated Brent. Asia carries the Hormuz scarcity in its feedstock; the Atlantic basin carries it only in its products.</li>
<li>Next: Asian run cuts, cheap Asian diesel dragged west, freight stays bid. The gap closes from the Singapore side, but only after the cuts, and only until the Strait reopens.</li>
</ul>


Singapore's Dubai cracking margin turned negative on 9 September (–US$2.93) while the USGC LLS margin sits at US$53.18, the top of its five-year range.
Cause: Dubai crude now trades above Dated Brent. Asia carries the Hormuz scarcity in its feedstock; the Atlantic basin carries it only in its products.
Next: Asian run cuts, cheap Asian diesel dragged west, freight stays bid. The gap closes from the Singapore side, but only after the cuts, and only until the Strait reopens.


Asia Pays the Hormuz Premium, America Banks the Crack

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added into portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 333% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 83%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 333% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 83%


<ul>
<li>The US unveiled new policies to impose secondary sanctions on countries that have trade or other relationships with Iran.  These policies assert US control over any nation's financial sovereignty.</li>
<li>
Iran's most consequential trading partner is China, and the US has not sanctioned any major Chinese company or bank because of the risk of "blowing up the global economy."</li>
<li>As in the military conflict, the US is overplaying its hand and risks substantial global economic consequences by pursuing short-term, impulsive policies rather than proper negotiations to achieve long-term objectives.</li>
</ul>


The US unveiled new policies to impose secondary sanctions on countries that have trade or other relationships with Iran.  These policies assert US control over any nation's financial sovereignty.

Iran's most consequential trading partner is China, and the US has not sanctioned any major Chinese company or bank because of the risk of "blowing up the global economy."
As in the military conflict, the US is overplaying its hand and risks substantial global economic consequences by pursuing short-term, impulsive policies rather than proper negotiations to achieve long-term objectives.


Trump's Iran D-Day: Why "Operation Economic Outcast Is D.O.A."

Laos
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