Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.20 per share: Resource estimates boost in Sicily – ADX has increased its aggregated prospective gas resource estimates for its Sicily Channel permit from 103–369–772 bcf to 188–484–1,265 bcf (P90–P50–P10 cases).</li><li>The new mean prospective resource of 619 bcf reflects the increased upside potential for the permit.</li><li>Individual prospect sizes range between 37–111 bcf (P50 case), with four prospects each estimated at 60–68 bcf (P50).</li></ul>

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.20 per share: Resource estimates boost in Sicily – ADX has increased its aggregated prospective gas resource estimates for its Sicily Channel permit from 103–369–772 bcf to 188–484–1,265 bcf (P90–P50–P10 cases).The new mean prospective resource of 619 bcf reflects the increased upside potential for the permit.Individual prospect sizes range between 37–111 bcf (P50 case), with four prospects each estimated at 60–68 bcf (P50).

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>In European USD AT1 space, we prefer UK and EU G-SIBs in view of their stance of equity should be written down ahead of AT1 in any resolution first.</li><li>We consider the risk of non-call and coupon skips for EU G-SIBs is low under the backdrop of the falling UST and these banks' ability and incentive to maintain access to capital markets at low funding costs.</li><li>We pick banks with good track records in coupon payments as scheduled and calling their AT1s on the first call dates. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In European USD AT1 space, we prefer UK and EU G-SIBs in view of their stance of equity should be written down ahead of AT1 in any resolution first.We consider the risk of non-call and coupon skips for EU G-SIBs is low under the backdrop of the falling UST and these banks' ability and incentive to maintain access to capital markets at low funding costs.We pick banks with good track records in coupon payments as scheduled and calling their AT1s on the first call dates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMBI Fixed Income - European AT1s: Our Picks Under Basel III Finalization

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

Telecom Argentina SA provides telecommunications services including local, long-distance and international service in Argentina.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides cellular telecommunications services and offers paging services.

<ul>
<li>We upgrade Telecom Argentina to Overweight as the TMA acquisition strengthens its market position, supports operating momentum, and benefits from reduced political risk and improving macro stability.</li>
<li>Regulatory uncertainty remains meaningful, and we think clearer visibility on the Telefónica approval process and integration timeline will be critical for value realization and credit performance.</li>
<li>• We see more value in the TEOAR 2031s given their lower duration, attractive relative spreads versus the EM B Index and peers, and supportive operating trends despite weak liquidity.</li>
</ul>


We upgrade Telecom Argentina to Overweight as the TMA acquisition strengthens its market position, supports operating momentum, and benefits from reduced political risk and improving macro stability.
Regulatory uncertainty remains meaningful, and we think clearer visibility on the Telefónica approval process and integration timeline will be critical for value realization and credit performance.
• We see more value in the TEOAR 2031s given their lower duration, attractive relative spreads versus the EM B Index and peers, and supportive operating trends despite weak liquidity.


Telecom 3Q25: Stronger Margins and a More Constructive Outlook

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

<ul>
<li>Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.</li>
<li>Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.</li>
<li>Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.</li>
</ul>


Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.
Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.
Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.


Key Insights From Vale Day 2025: Strategy Recast for a New Metals Cycle

Market Strategist, RW Advisory

Ron William

Market Strategist

RW Advisory

RW Advisory, founded by Ron William, a market strategist with 20+ years of experience, offers macro/tactical research and advisory to a wide range of financial institutions.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US equities triggered key reversal signals as market breadth deteriorated, crowded AI leaders unwound, and indexes broke trend support, elevating near-term downside risk. </li>
<li>Macro uncertainty, tighter liquidity, and shifting investor psychology are pressuring high-liquidity growth assets, while gold and quality balance-sheet exposures provide relative resilience. </li>
<li>Multiple late-cycle timing models align into early 2026, raising the probability of episodic volatility and making disciplined positioning, selective risk-taking, and tactical hedging essential.</li>
</ul>


US equities triggered key reversal signals as market breadth deteriorated, crowded AI leaders unwound, and indexes broke trend support, elevating near-term downside risk. 
Macro uncertainty, tighter liquidity, and shifting investor psychology are pressuring high-liquidity growth assets, while gold and quality balance-sheet exposures provide relative resilience. 
Multiple late-cycle timing models align into early 2026, raising the probability of episodic volatility and making disciplined positioning, selective risk-taking, and tactical hedging essential.


Late-Cycle Tension: Rising Volatility Signals a Critical Market Inflection into 2026

Latin America
Insights on Latin America (LATAM)

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 05/12/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.20 per share: Resource estimates boost in...

Auctus Advisors

CMBI Fixed Income - European AT1s: Our Picks Under Basel III Finalization

In European USD AT1 space, we prefer UK and EU G-SIBs in view of their stance of equity should be written down ahead of AT1 in any resolution first.

CMB International

Telecom 3Q25: Stronger Margins and a More Constructive Outlook

Telecom Argentina’s TMA acquisition, improving fundamentals, and compelling relative value create a timely opportunity for investors seeking yield...

Leandro Gubler

Key Insights From Vale Day 2025: Strategy Recast for a New Metals Cycle

Vale trims iron ore output, doubles down on decarbonized steel trends, and advances a Sudbury copper partnership as supply tightens.

Mint Finance

Late-Cycle Tension: Rising Volatility Signals a Critical Market Inflection into 2026

US equities weaken as AI leaders unwind; volatility rises amid late-cycle pressures. Gold holds, growth falters. Discipline, diversification, and...

Ron William