Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>By surprises on Monday, China cut the one-year Loan Prime Rate by 10 basis points to 3.35%,  while the five-year LPR was reduced by the same margin to 3.85%.</li>
<li>Afterwards PBOC cuts its Medium Term Facility (MLF) on Thursday to 2.30%, down 20 basis points from its previous MLF loan, its largest cut since April 2020.</li>
<li>The rate cuts this time carries more information than previous cuts as in the past, MLF changes usually precede rather than follow the LPR cuts.</li>
</ul>


By surprises on Monday, China cut the one-year Loan Prime Rate by 10 basis points to 3.35%,  while the five-year LPR was reduced by the same margin to 3.85%.
Afterwards PBOC cuts its Medium Term Facility (MLF) on Thursday to 2.30%, down 20 basis points from its previous MLF loan, its largest cut since April 2020.
The rate cuts this time carries more information than previous cuts as in the past, MLF changes usually precede rather than follow the LPR cuts.


PBOC's Surprise Rate Cuts on 22 July 2024

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Uncertainty over income and employment, adverse wealth effects from lower house prices, plus growing risk aversion, will likely mean that consumption continues to struggle.</li>
<li>We forecast slower H2 GDP growth and look for 4% in 2025.</li>
<li>Sluggish China retail sales/negative auto sales and price cuts for luxury goods suggest that China consumption is struggling.</li>
</ul>


Uncertainty over income and employment, adverse wealth effects from lower house prices, plus growing risk aversion, will likely mean that consumption continues to struggle.
We forecast slower H2 GDP growth and look for 4% in 2025.
Sluggish China retail sales/negative auto sales and price cuts for luxury goods suggest that China consumption is struggling.


China: Struggling Middle Class and Bottom 50%

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

Koninklijke Vopak NV is an independent tank terminal operator. The Company provides conditioned storage facilities for bulk liquids such as oil products, gaseous chemicals, petrochemicals, biofuels and vegetable oils.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koninklijke-vopak-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21144:1" rel="noopener">Koninklijke Vopak Nv (VPK NA)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shaftesbury-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22140:1" rel="noopener">Shaftesbury PLC (SHB LN)</a> are currently passing the entry rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund demands are $22m-$34m and 3-5 ADV. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indivior-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21996:1" rel="noopener">Indivior PLC (INDV LN)</a> is currently the only one below the exit rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund supply is $11.5m and 1.4 ADV.</li>
<li>'Most liquid stock' criterion can cause a 'switch' of share lines in the index as it happened with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chocoladefabriken-lindt-spru-d0c11ab4-21ec-491e-9b8f-44b06e078529" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24963:1" rel="noopener">Lindt (LISP SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chocoladefabriken-lindt-sprungli" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22420:1" rel="noopener">Lindt (LISN SW)</a> in September 2022. </li>
</ul>



Koninklijke Vopak Nv (VPK NA) &amp; Shaftesbury PLC (SHB LN) are currently passing the entry rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund demands are $22m-$34m and 3-5 ADV. 

Indivior PLC (INDV LN) is currently the only one below the exit rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund supply is $11.5m and 1.4 ADV.
'Most liquid stock' criterion can cause a 'switch' of share lines in the index as it happened with Lindt (LISP SW) and Lindt (LISN SW) in September 2022. 


STOXX 600: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

<ul>
<li>Sustainability and ESG investment has increasingly gained importance and has become not just a talking point</li>
<li>Surprisingly, China is one of the most serious countries that care about ESG, even beating America and Europe in certain sustainability aspects.</li>
<li>It is worthwhile to review UN's 17 sustainability goals to see what each economy can do to to raise the hope of achieving them by 2030.</li>
</ul>


Sustainability and ESG investment has increasingly gained importance and has become not just a talking point
Surprisingly, China is one of the most serious countries that care about ESG, even beating America and Europe in certain sustainability aspects.
It is worthwhile to review UN's 17 sustainability goals to see what each economy can do to to raise the hope of achieving them by 2030.


<ul>
<li>US tech stocks correct quite heavily,  with S&amp;P500 down for 2.6% and Nasdaq down for 3.7% up to Thursday this week.</li>
<li>Hang Seng follows suit, declining for 2.6% for the week. However, we believe Hong Kong stocks are doomed a short-term recovery in coming weeks.</li>
<li>After treading new high last Tuesday, gold has retreated from USD2467.8 to USD2409.4. Gold is still a long-term good investment as central banks are mounting gold position.</li>
</ul>


US tech stocks correct quite heavily,  with S&amp;P500 down for 2.6% and Nasdaq down for 3.7% up to Thursday this week.
Hang Seng follows suit, declining for 2.6% for the week. However, we believe Hong Kong stocks are doomed a short-term recovery in coming weeks.
After treading new high last Tuesday, gold has retreated from USD2467.8 to USD2409.4. Gold is still a long-term good investment as central banks are mounting gold position.


Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (26 July 2024)

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PBOC's Surprise Rate Cuts on 22 July 2024

China surprises with rate cuts: 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR each down by 10bps. PBOC follows with largest MLF cut since April 2020 by 20bps. The...

Alex Ng

China: Struggling Middle Class and Bottom 50%

Uncertainty in income and employment, along with lower house prices, risk aversion, and sluggish retail sales in China, will likely lead to...

Alex Ng

STOXX 600: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

Koninklijke Vopak & Shaftesbury PLC are currently the top 2 candidates for addition in SXXP while Indivior PLC is the main candidate for deletion.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Sustainability and ESG Investment

Sustainability and ESG investment are no longer just talk; China leads in certain aspects, highlighting the importance of UN's 17 sustainability...

Alex Ng

Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (26 July 2024)

US tech stocks and Hang Seng decline, while gold retreats from recent high, but remains a good long-term investment due to central banks purchases...

Alex Ng

PBOC's Surprise Rate Cuts on 22 July 2024

​China surprises with rate cuts: 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR each down by 10bps. PBOC follows with largest MLF cut since April 2020 by 20bps. The...

Alex Ng

China: Struggling Middle Class and Bottom 50%

​Uncertainty in income and employment, along with lower house prices, risk aversion, and sluggish retail sales in China, will likely lead to...

Alex Ng

STOXX 600: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

​Koninklijke Vopak & Shaftesbury PLC are currently the top 2 candidates for addition in SXXP while Indivior PLC is the main candidate for deletion.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Sustainability and ESG Investment

​Sustainability and ESG investment are no longer just talk; China leads in certain aspects, highlighting the importance of UN's 17 sustainability...

Alex Ng

Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (26 July 2024)

​US tech stocks and Hang Seng decline, while gold retreats from recent high, but remains a good long-term investment due to central banks purchases...

Alex Ng

China surprises with rate cuts: 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR each down by 10bps. PBOC follows with largest MLF cut since April 2020 by 20bps. The...

Uncertainty in income and employment, along with lower house prices, risk aversion, and sluggish retail sales in China, will likely lead to...

Koninklijke Vopak & Shaftesbury PLC are currently the top 2 candidates for addition in SXXP while Indivior PLC is the main candidate for deletion.

Sustainability and ESG investment are no longer just talk; China leads in certain aspects, highlighting the importance of UN's 17 sustainability...

US tech stocks and Hang Seng decline, while gold retreats from recent high, but remains a good long-term investment due to central banks purchases...