Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Huawei introduced the “Tau Scaling Law” under which chip designers optimise for the time taken for elements of a chip to communicate, rather than for the space between transistors. </li>
<li>Huawei’s next-generation Kirin SoC, due autumn 2026, will be the first commercial chip to fully adopt the resulting architecture, which Huawei is calling “LogicFolding.”</li>
<li>Huawei chips designed under this framework will deliver transistor density equivalent to a 1.4nm process by 2031, three years after TSMC’s publicly stated 2028 timeline for its A14 (1.4nm) node.</li>
</ul>


Huawei introduced the “Tau Scaling Law” under which chip designers optimise for the time taken for elements of a chip to communicate, rather than for the space between transistors. 
Huawei’s next-generation Kirin SoC, due autumn 2026, will be the first commercial chip to fully adopt the resulting architecture, which Huawei is calling “LogicFolding.”
Huawei chips designed under this framework will deliver transistor density equivalent to a 1.4nm process by 2031, three years after TSMC’s publicly stated 2028 timeline for its A14 (1.4nm) node.


Huawei’s “Tau Scaling Law” and “LogicFolding”. Desperation, A Genuine Breakthrough Or Both?

<ul>
<li>On 19 May 2026, China’s Hubei securities regulator accepted CITIC Securities’ tutoring filing for Yangtze Memory Technologies Holding Co., Ltd. (YMTC), the country’s only end-to-end 3D NAND manufacturer.</li>
<li>Reports suggest YMTC Q1 2026 revenue of  ¥20 billion, doubling YoY, driven by AI data center NAND demand.</li>
<li>Once Phase III ramps, Guosheng estimates YMTC’s global NAND share exceeds 15%. After that, two more fabs are reportedly planned that would <em><strong>double</strong></em> total YMTC capacity at full production. Yikes! </li>
</ul>


On 19 May 2026, China’s Hubei securities regulator accepted CITIC Securities’ tutoring filing for Yangtze Memory Technologies Holding Co., Ltd. (YMTC), the country’s only end-to-end 3D NAND manufacturer.
Reports suggest YMTC Q1 2026 revenue of  ¥20 billion, doubling YoY, driven by AI data center NAND demand.
Once Phase III ramps, Guosheng estimates YMTC’s global NAND share exceeds 15%. After that, two more fabs are reportedly planned that would double total YMTC capacity at full production. Yikes! 


YMTC’s Submits "Tutoring" Filing In Preparation For Another STAR IPO

<ul>
<li>On May 20, 2026, SpaceX filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC. Ticker: SPCX. Listing venue: Nasdaq plus the brand-new Nasdaq Texas, headquartered at 1 Rocket Road, Starbase, Texas</li>
<li>Two share classes. Class A = 1 vote. Class B = 10 votes. Class B shareholders separately elect a majority of the board as a class. Elon taking no chances.</li>
<li>SpaceX key plans include a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants and launching orbital data centers capable of delivering 100 terawatts of compute per year.</li>
</ul>


On May 20, 2026, SpaceX filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC. Ticker: SPCX. Listing venue: Nasdaq plus the brand-new Nasdaq Texas, headquartered at 1 Rocket Road, Starbase, Texas
Two share classes. Class A = 1 vote. Class B = 10 votes. Class B shareholders separately elect a majority of the board as a class. Elon taking no chances.
SpaceX key plans include a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants and launching orbital data centers capable of delivering 100 terawatts of compute per year.


SpaceX Just Filed Their S-1 & It's A Doozy

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Hormuz closure has lasted long enough that a significant share of the economic damage is already locked in, regardless of when a diplomatic resolution enables a reopening. </li>
<li>Structural obstacles, namely Washington’s credibility deficit after dismantling the JCPOA and sunk-cost logic, inhibit previous and current efforts to reach a negotiated settlement. </li>
<li>The crisis is transmitting across multiple channels simultaneously—energy supply scarring, agricultural input shortages, disruptions in global trade, and tighter financial conditions.</li>
</ul>


The Hormuz closure has lasted long enough that a significant share of the economic damage is already locked in, regardless of when a diplomatic resolution enables a reopening. 
Structural obstacles, namely Washington’s credibility deficit after dismantling the JCPOA and sunk-cost logic, inhibit previous and current efforts to reach a negotiated settlement. 
The crisis is transmitting across multiple channels simultaneously—energy supply scarring, agricultural input shortages, disruptions in global trade, and tighter financial conditions.


Global Economics: Bill From Hormuz Crisis Is Already Due and May Grow Larger

Peru
Insights on Peru

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Huawei’s “Tau Scaling Law” and “LogicFolding”. Desperation, A Genuine Breakthrough Or Both?

Huawei chips designed under this framework will deliver transistor density equivalent to a 1.4nm process by 2031, three years after TSMC’s publicly...

William Keating

YMTC’s Submits "Tutoring" Filing In Preparation For Another STAR IPO

Once Phase III ramps, Guosheng estimates YMTC’s global NAND share exceeds 15%. After that, two more fabs are reportedly planned that would double...

William Keating

SpaceX Just Filed Their S-1 & It's A Doozy

SpaceX key plans include a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants and launching orbital data centers capable of...

William Keating

Global Economics: Bill From Hormuz Crisis Is Already Due and May Grow Larger

The prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait has meant that a significant share of the economic damage has already been baked in, even as prospects...

Manu Bhaskaran

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Huawei’s “Tau Scaling Law” and “LogicFolding”. Desperation, A Genuine Breakthrough Or Both?

Huawei chips designed under this framework will deliver transistor density equivalent to a 1.4nm process by 2031, three years after TSMC’s publicly...

William Keating

YMTC’s Submits "Tutoring" Filing In Preparation For Another STAR IPO

Once Phase III ramps, Guosheng estimates YMTC’s global NAND share exceeds 15%. After that, two more fabs are reportedly planned that would double...

William Keating

SpaceX Just Filed Their S-1 & It's A Doozy

SpaceX key plans include a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants and launching orbital data centers capable of...

William Keating

Global Economics: Bill From Hormuz Crisis Is Already Due and May Grow Larger

​The prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait has meant that a significant share of the economic damage has already been baked in, even as prospects...

Manu Bhaskaran

The prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait has meant that a significant share of the economic damage has already been baked in, even as prospects...