Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Energy supply is tightening due to intensified attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a US hurricane. Fed minutes and ECB meeting accounts also confirm a tightening bias.</li>
<li>A failure by the UK Green Party leader to significantly increase support for the left in a by-election also reduces the political pressure on PM Burnham to loosen fiscal policy.</li>
<li>Next week features US inflation data that are set to show another rise with energy prices. UK GDP and the final EA inflation print are other highlights for us.</li>
</ul>


Energy supply is tightening due to intensified attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a US hurricane. Fed minutes and ECB meeting accounts also confirm a tightening bias.
A failure by the UK Green Party leader to significantly increase support for the left in a by-election also reduces the political pressure on PM Burnham to loosen fiscal policy.
Next week features US inflation data that are set to show another rise with energy prices. UK GDP and the final EA inflation print are other highlights for us.


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.</li>
<li>DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.</li>
<li>Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.</li>
</ul>


DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.
DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.
Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.


DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

<ul>
<li>The ECB meeting accounts confirm unanimous support for the unsurprising 25bp hike delivered in September, and provide no basis to treat it as the end of the cycle.</li>
<li>All members saw upside inflation risks, while one judged the adverse energy scenario likelier than the baseline, reinforcing a December hike.</li>
<li>A 2.5% rate is still seen within the range of staff neutral estimates. Resilient activity and above-target core inflation leave scope for another 25bp increase.</li>
</ul>


The ECB meeting accounts confirm unanimous support for the unsurprising 25bp hike delivered in September, and provide no basis to treat it as the end of the cycle.
All members saw upside inflation risks, while one judged the adverse energy scenario likelier than the baseline, reinforcing a December hike.
A 2.5% rate is still seen within the range of staff neutral estimates. Resilient activity and above-target core inflation leave scope for another 25bp increase.


Director, Sentiment Matters

Lars Kreckel

Director

The mood of the market, mapped and decoded

Sentiment Matters

Investor sentiment is the overall mood of investors - how bullish or bearish they are on a market or asset.

Sentiment is part of every investor’s investment process. Whether for macro investors, stock pickers, or thematic investors, it matters whether a position is consensus or contrarian.

<ul>
<li>
Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.</li>
<li>
Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.</li>
<li>
Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.</li>
</ul>



Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.

Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.

Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.


Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker - October 2026

<ul>
<li>Energy prices are squeezing higher amid low inventories and resilient demand, building more inflation than many forecast.</li>
<li>Second-Round effects are small, but UK inflation expectations are anchored above the target, and monetary conditions aren’t tight.</li>
<li>We see hikes from the BoE in Nov-26 and the ECB/Fed in Dec-26. Market pricing looks too stretched given dovish policymaker bias.</li>
</ul>


Energy prices are squeezing higher amid low inventories and resilient demand, building more inflation than many forecast.
Second-Round effects are small, but UK inflation expectations are anchored above the target, and monetary conditions aren’t tight.
We see hikes from the BoE in Nov-26 and the ECB/Fed in Dec-26. Market pricing looks too stretched given dovish policymaker bias.


Spain
Insights on Spain

HEW: Broadly Blowing Tighter

Energy supply shocks and hawkish Fed/ECB signals are tightening the global outlook, while political pressure for fiscal loosening is easing in the...

Phil Rush

DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

The sudden plunge in demand for an Nvidia-backed data center company’s initial public offering is revealing fresh cracks in the AI funding boom....

David Mudd

ECB: December Hike Reinforced

The ECB accounts to its September meeting reinforce our December hike call: 2.5% remains within the neutral range, while all members see inflation...

Heteronomics AI

Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker - October 2026

Buy-side sentiment is bullish and still rising, but not universally risk-on. Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold lead; Swiss Franc, Cash and...

Lars Kreckel

HEM: Oct-26 Views & Challenges

Low inventories and resilient demand are driving energy prices higher, stoking inflation. UK expectations sit above target and policy isn’t tight;...

Phil Rush