Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Steadfast Group Ltd is a provider of services to broker businesses across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The Company has equity interests in insurance broker businesses, underwriting agencies and other complementary businesses.

<ul>
<li>First, EQT, then CVC joined, in a A$45/share NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">AUB (AUB AU)</a>, an insurance "matchmaker": <a href="https://skr.ma/J2CwJ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU)</a>. Talks <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20251201/pdf/06sr2bsh6yv802.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ceased</a> this week. </li>
<li>Reportedly, AUB’s larger insurance rival, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>, is now attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.</li>
<li>Steadfast is down ~25% from its recent high following a workplace complaint towards CEO/MD/founder Robert Kelly - now concluded on "a confidential basis", with Kelly resuming his roles. </li>
</ul>


First, EQT, then CVC joined, in a A$45/share NBIO for AUB (AUB AU), an insurance "matchmaker": CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU). Talks ceased this week. 
Reportedly, AUB’s larger insurance rival, Steadfast (SDF AU), is now attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.
Steadfast is down ~25% from its recent high following a workplace complaint towards CEO/MD/founder Robert Kelly - now concluded on "a confidential basis", with Kelly resuming his roles. 


Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint

Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited, through joint ventures, designs, manufactures, and markets diesel engines, light trucks, automobiles, castings, and related spare parts.

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.</li>
<li>In its October <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof</a>, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.</li>
<li>Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

Travis Lundy

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank / Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.</li>
<li>I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, "neither here nor there."</li>
<li>But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2021</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2022-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2022</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2023-high-conviction-sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-still-reading-between-the-lines" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023</a> and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, "neither here nor there."
But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.


[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Index Rebalance

Pan African Resources PLC engages in the exploration and mining of gold and platinum-group element (PGE) properties in South Africa. The company operates through five segments: Barberton Mines, Evander Mines, Phoenix Platinum, Corporate and Growth Projects, and Funding Company. Its PGE properties comprise platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium deposits. The company?s assets include Barberton Mines comprising three gold mines and the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Plant, as well as Evander Mines consisting of a gold mine and the Evander Tailings Treatment Plant in Mpumalanga; and Phoenix Platinum, a Chrome Tailing Retreatment Plant located in Rustenburg, South Africa. It also provides funding services. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.

<ul><li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li><li>The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the close of 2nd December 2025 and announced after the close of 3rd December 2025.</li><li>Based on the current numbers, we see one change for the F100 index and four changes for the F250 index in December 2025.</li></ul>

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the close of 2nd December 2025 and announced after the close of 3rd December 2025.Based on the current numbers, we see one change for the F100 index and four changes for the F250 index in December 2025.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: One F100 ADD, Four F250 ADDs Likely; One Day to Base Date

Spindex Industries Limited manufactures, imports, exports, and deals mechanical, electrical, and electronic parts.  The Company also manufactures and trades precision machine parts, plastic molds and injections, and other related plastic and engineering materials.

<ul>
<li>On the 26th September, precision parts manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spindex-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17868:1" rel="noopener">Spindex Industries (SPE SP)</a> announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex's controlling shareholder, with 74.95%.</li>
<li>The Tan's offered S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed; but a decade-high price. A A$0.02/share was also bolted on (&amp; now paid). No competing Offer will emerge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Spindex_Scheme%20Document.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=868915" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Booklet is now out,</a> with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th December, and expected payment on the 11th Feb 2026. The IFA (Evolve Capital) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
</ul>


On the 26th September, precision parts manufacturer Spindex Industries (SPE SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex's controlling shareholder, with 74.95%.
The Tan's offered S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed; but a decade-high price. A A$0.02/share was also bolted on (&amp; now paid). No competing Offer will emerge.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th December, and expected payment on the 11th Feb 2026. The IFA (Evolve Capital) says "fair &amp; reasonable".


Spindex Inds (SPE SP): 18th Dec Vote On MBO

Quiddity Advisors
Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

The SBI Shinsei Bank IPO at north of book comes only 2 years post-squeezeout at half of book. It was a big trade for SBI but they need to sell...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: One F100 ADD, Four F250 ADDs Likely; One Day to Base Date

We achieved 100% hit rate for the F100/250 Dec25 index review. The results were confirmed publicly after market close yesterday. I have summarized...

Afridi Reyal

Spindex Inds (SPE SP): 18th Dec Vote On MBO

Clean deal. Trading at 1.4%/7.7% gross/annualised. If small, illiquid arbs are your thing, and not in, it may be worth a punt. Otherwise look...

David Blennerhassett

Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint

There is, as yet, no Offer. Steadfast's share price has failed to recover from the internal complaint. EQTCVC walking from AUB does no favours....

David Blennerhassett

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

The SBI Shinsei Bank IPO at north of book comes only 2 years post-squeezeout at half of book. It was a big trade for SBI but they need to sell...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: One F100 ADD, Four F250 ADDs Likely; One Day to Base Date

We achieved 100% hit rate for the F100/250 Dec25 index review. The results were confirmed publicly after market close yesterday. I have summarized...

Afridi Reyal

Spindex Inds (SPE SP): 18th Dec Vote On MBO

Clean deal. Trading at 1.4%/7.7% gross/annualised. If small, illiquid arbs are your thing, and not in, it may be worth a punt. Otherwise look...

David Blennerhassett