Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

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Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul><li>Fund Managers Are Long Commodities Again Be careful if you’re heavily long commodities at the moment.</li><li>The Bank of America survey usually always works as a great contra sentiment indicator.</li><li>If fund managers are heavily long commodities - prices tend to top out.</li></ul>

Fund Managers Are Long Commodities Again Be careful if you’re heavily long commodities at the moment.The Bank of America survey usually always works as a great contra sentiment indicator.If fund managers are heavily long commodities - prices tend to top out.

ICE US - Cocoa Futures
The Cocoa contract is the world benchmark for the global cocoa market. The contract prices the physical delivery of exchange-grade product from a variety of African, Asian and Central and South American origins to any of five US delivery ports (Port of New York District, Delaware River Port District, Port of Hampton Roads, Port of Albany, or Port of Baltimore). Calls for delivery of any kind of cocoa bean as   long as it meets FDA standards for importation.   
Standards: Established by Exch. licensed graders  in accordance with specified tolerances for defects, bean count, bean size and other standards.

<ul><li>Last week’s inflation data surprised market participants on the upside. CPI YoY: 3,2% vs. 3,1% estimate. Core CPI m/m: 0,4% vs 0,3% estimated</li><li>Even larger was the upside surprise in the PPI data. Friends of the 70s double-dip inflation scenario will probably love this chart.</li><li>Take a closer look at the 70s and how inflation recovered before it take of in the late 70s for another rip higher.</li></ul>

Last week’s inflation data surprised market participants on the upside. CPI YoY: 3,2% vs. 3,1% estimate. Core CPI m/m: 0,4% vs 0,3% estimatedEven larger was the upside surprise in the PPI data. Friends of the 70s double-dip inflation scenario will probably love this chart.Take a closer look at the 70s and how inflation recovered before it take of in the late 70s for another rip higher.

Inflation Surprises as Commodities Rip Higher

<ul><li>Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a Bloomberg article.</li><li>Andurand said his firm expects cocoa-beans production globally to be down at least 18% on an annual basis, compared to most analysts’ expectations of 10-11%.</li><li>“This means that we will finish the year with the lowest stocks-to-grinding ratio ever, and potentially run out of inventories late in the year,” he added.</li></ul>

Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a Bloomberg article.Andurand said his firm expects cocoa-beans production globally to be down at least 18% on an annual basis, compared to most analysts’ expectations of 10-11%.“This means that we will finish the year with the lowest stocks-to-grinding ratio ever, and potentially run out of inventories late in the year,” he added.

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul><li>Goldman also highlights that cyclical risks from the business cycle are fading.</li><li>An upswing in the global industrial cycle typically leads to broad metals upside over the next 12 months the investment bank added.</li><li>According to data from PIERS, a trade flow analytics tool within S&amp;P Global, Baltimore port held just 4% share of the total trade volumes on the East Coast compared with other major regional ports like New York, with a nearly 38% share according to S&amp;P Global.</li></ul>

Goldman also highlights that cyclical risks from the business cycle are fading.An upswing in the global industrial cycle typically leads to broad metals upside over the next 12 months the investment bank added.According to data from PIERS, a trade flow analytics tool within S&amp;P Global, Baltimore port held just 4% share of the total trade volumes on the East Coast compared with other major regional ports like New York, with a nearly 38% share according to S&amp;P Global.

What the Baltimore Bride Collapse Means for Commodities

<ul><li>Fund Manager Positioning In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.</li><li>Investors have been underweight commodities now for the past 4 months (longest underweight streak since Aug'19) Compared to the past 20-year z-score, fund managers remain heavily underweight in commodities and even more in energy.</li><li>In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.</li></ul>

Fund Manager Positioning In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.Investors have been underweight commodities now for the past 4 months (longest underweight streak since Aug'19) Compared to the past 20-year z-score, fund managers remain heavily underweight in commodities and even more in energy.In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.

Fund Managers Commodity Positioning // Cocoa’s Historic Run Continues…

The Commodity Report
Data-Driven Commodity Research

Fund Managers Are Long Commodities Again

Fund Managers Are Long Commodities Again Be careful if you’re heavily long commodities at the moment. The Bank of America survey usually always...

The Commodity Report

Inflation Surprises as Commodities Rip Higher

Last week’s inflation data surprised market participants on the upside. CPI YoY: 3,2% vs. 3,1% estimate. Core CPI m/m: 0,4% vs 0,3% estimated

The Commodity Report

The Cocoa Saga Continues - Be Careful

Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a...

The Commodity Report

What the Baltimore Bride Collapse Means for Commodities

According to data from PIERS, a trade flow analytics tool within S&P Global, Baltimore port held just 4% share of the total trade volumes on the...

The Commodity Report

Fund Managers Commodity Positioning // Cocoa’s Historic Run Continues…

Fund Manager Positioning In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a...

The Commodity Report