Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>A record June (NT$442.68bn, +67.9% YoY) puts fully-reported 2Q26 revenue at NT$1,270.4bn, about US$40.1bn, at the upper end of the US$39.0-40.2bn guide. Revenue is settled pre-print.</li>
<li>The question is now the full-year guide. First-half revenvue is up 35.6% YoY, past the "above 30%" bar; the street implies +37%, so a guide raise is partially baked in.</li>
<li>Also watch whether management repeats the 2-3pp N2 margin dilution and how it frames FY27 capex. At 24.4x forward, TSMC remains relatively inexpensive.</li>
</ul>


A record June (NT$442.68bn, +67.9% YoY) puts fully-reported 2Q26 revenue at NT$1,270.4bn, about US$40.1bn, at the upper end of the US$39.0-40.2bn guide. Revenue is settled pre-print.
The question is now the full-year guide. First-half revenvue is up 35.6% YoY, past the "above 30%" bar; the street implies +37%, so a guide raise is partially baked in.
Also watch whether management repeats the 2-3pp N2 margin dilution and how it frames FY27 capex. At 24.4x forward, TSMC remains relatively inexpensive.


TSMC 2Q26 Preview: A Record June Lands 2Q Revenue at the Upper End of the Guide

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Anecdotally, fund flows from foreign institutions are important drivers for Asian equity markets. But considering annual FII flows into Asian markets, and their performance tells a different story.</li>
<li>Taiwan and Korea's performances are the most uncorrelated with foreign flows. India's is the most correlated, despite the sharp spike in India's domestic flows. Thailand and Philippines are reasonably correlated.</li>
<li>Considering fundamentals (earnings growth forecasts and direction of estimates) and the extent of overbuying/overselling in a market, we think Korea, Taiwan should see buying. India, Indonesia, Philippines could be sold.</li>
</ul>


Anecdotally, fund flows from foreign institutions are important drivers for Asian equity markets. But considering annual FII flows into Asian markets, and their performance tells a different story.
Taiwan and Korea's performances are the most uncorrelated with foreign flows. India's is the most correlated, despite the sharp spike in India's domestic flows. Thailand and Philippines are reasonably correlated.
Considering fundamentals (earnings growth forecasts and direction of estimates) and the extent of overbuying/overselling in a market, we think Korea, Taiwan should see buying. India, Indonesia, Philippines could be sold.


Asian Equities: How Critical Are FII Flows for Asia, and in Which Markets Are They Likely to Revive?

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)</a> reported record June revenues, pushing second quarter sales to NT$1.27 trillion, beating consensus estimates with a robust 36% annual increase driven by AI demand.</li>
<li>External geopolitical factors are applying downward pressure, following the fresh United States and Iran escalation, creating broader market jitters despite the company's strong performance. </li>
<li>Taiwanese regulators officially approved a 20B dollar investment into the company's Arizona subsidiary today, indicating manufacturing expansion. <strong>This insight will discuss the stock possible short-term direction, support and profit targets.</strong>
</li>
</ul>



TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) reported record June revenues, pushing second quarter sales to NT$1.27 trillion, beating consensus estimates with a robust 36% annual increase driven by AI demand.
External geopolitical factors are applying downward pressure, following the fresh United States and Iran escalation, creating broader market jitters despite the company's strong performance. 
Taiwanese regulators officially approved a 20B dollar investment into the company's Arizona subsidiary today, indicating manufacturing expansion. This insight will discuss the stock possible short-term direction, support and profit targets.



TSMC (2330TT) Tactical Outlook Ahead of July 16th Q2 Results

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is about to give investors one of the clearest tests yet of the AI spending cycle.</li><li>The first signal arrives with its postponed June sales release on Monday, July 13.</li><li>The company will then report second-quarter results on Thursday, July 16, at 2:00 a.m. ET.</li></ul>

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is about to give investors one of the clearest tests yet of the AI spending cycle.The first signal arrives with its postponed June sales release on Monday, July 13.The company will then report second-quarter results on Thursday, July 16, at 2:00 a.m. ET.

TSMC’s Two Numbers Could Decide Whether The AI Rally Has Gone Too Far!

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>June revenue NT$442.68bn (+67.9% YoY, +6.2% MoM). Implied Q2 2026 revenue ~US$39.63bn (+36% YoY), landing at the midpoint of TSMC's own guidance, ahead of 16 July earnings.</li>
<li>This matches our Q2-26E model (~US$39.6bn) and confirms Pillar III demand compounding. A sector-wide chip selloff on the same day is unrelated — a rotation dip, not a TSMC-specific signal.</li>
<li>We remain Bullish with FV of NT$3,230 / US$510 (+18%) reiterated, anchored on 22x FY26E EV/EBITDA and structural AI-monopoly economics; gross margin confirmation on 16 July is the re-rating trigger.</li>
</ul>


June revenue NT$442.68bn (+67.9% YoY, +6.2% MoM). Implied Q2 2026 revenue ~US$39.63bn (+36% YoY), landing at the midpoint of TSMC's own guidance, ahead of 16 July earnings.
This matches our Q2-26E model (~US$39.6bn) and confirms Pillar III demand compounding. A sector-wide chip selloff on the same day is unrelated — a rotation dip, not a TSMC-specific signal.
We remain Bullish with FV of NT$3,230 / US$510 (+18%) reiterated, anchored on 22x FY26E EV/EBITDA and structural AI-monopoly economics; gross margin confirmation on 16 July is the re-rating trigger.


TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC 2Q26 Preview: A Record June Lands 2Q Revenue at the Upper End of the Guide

TSMC reports record June revenue, nearing upper end of guidance, with focus now on potential full-year guidance raise and margin impact.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: How Critical Are FII Flows for Asia, and in Which Markets Are They Likely to Revive?

Foreign fund flows are not the main drivers of several Asian markets. TW & KR show the least correlation & India the most. KR & TW could see near...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TSMC (2330TT) Tactical Outlook Ahead of July 16th Q2 Results

TSMC (2330 TT) revenue beat overshadowed by $20B Arizona commitment and N2 ramp margin pressure, but our model says the stock could rally for 2-3...

Nico Rosti

TSMC’s Two Numbers Could Decide Whether The AI Rally Has Gone Too Far!

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is about to give investors one of the clearest tests yet of the AI spending cycle. The first signal...

Baptista Research

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

June revenue lands at guidance midpoint, confirming base case. Sector sells off regardless. Fair Value NT$3,230/US$510 (+18%) reiterated — Bullish...

Mo Aziz

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TSMC 2Q26 Preview: A Record June Lands 2Q Revenue at the Upper End of the Guide

​TSMC reports record June revenue, nearing upper end of guidance, with focus now on potential full-year guidance raise and margin impact.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: How Critical Are FII Flows for Asia, and in Which Markets Are They Likely to Revive?

​Foreign fund flows are not the main drivers of several Asian markets. TW & KR show the least correlation & India the most. KR & TW could see near...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TSMC (2330TT) Tactical Outlook Ahead of July 16th Q2 Results

​TSMC (2330 TT) revenue beat overshadowed by $20B Arizona commitment and N2 ramp margin pressure, but our model says the stock could rally for 2-3...

Nico Rosti

TSMC’s Two Numbers Could Decide Whether The AI Rally Has Gone Too Far!

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is about to give investors one of the clearest tests yet of the AI spending cycle. The first signal...

Baptista Research

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

June revenue lands at guidance midpoint, confirming base case. Sector sells off regardless. Fair Value NT$3,230/US$510 (+18%) reiterated — Bullish...

Mo Aziz

TSMC reports record June revenue, nearing upper end of guidance, with focus now on potential full-year guidance raise and margin impact.

Foreign fund flows are not the main drivers of several Asian markets. TW & KR show the least correlation & India the most. KR & TW could see near...

TSMC (2330 TT) revenue beat overshadowed by $20B Arizona commitment and N2 ramp margin pressure, but our model says the stock could rally for 2-3...