Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Are the recent announcements blocking Chinese investment a sea change in US/China relations?</li>
<li>Are we wrong about Trump’s willingness to do a deal with China?</li>
<li>Is it wrong to maintain a bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks?</li>
</ul>


Are the recent announcements blocking Chinese investment a sea change in US/China relations?
Are we wrong about Trump’s willingness to do a deal with China?
Is it wrong to maintain a bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks?


Will Recent US Announcements Derail the HK/China Bull Market?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion</li>
<li>Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement</li>
<li>There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales</li>
</ul>


August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion
Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement
There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales


Semis Just Broke a Record.  Why Did Nobody Notice?

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

<ul>
<li>Generative AI seen through the lens of corporate earnings shows a lack of ROI or growth drivers in applications <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hewlett-packard-enterprise-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26511:1" rel="noopener">Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US)</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> </li>
<li>U.S. semi equipment restrictions to China could negatively impact Tokyo Electron, ASML results in 2025 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21097:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-device-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10301:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron Device (2760 JP)</a> </li>
<li>Flagship global Tech conference in NYC suggests interest has picked up in global software above hardware in a notable shift</li>
</ul>


Generative AI seen through the lens of corporate earnings shows a lack of ROI or growth drivers in applications Broadcom (AVGO US)Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US)  Alphabet (GOOGL US) 
U.S. semi equipment restrictions to China could negatively impact Tokyo Electron, ASML results in 2025 ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)Tokyo Electron Device (2760 JP) 
Flagship global Tech conference in NYC suggests interest has picked up in global software above hardware in a notable shift


Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);</li>
<li>The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;</li>
<li>The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in <strong>disfavor</strong> of China. </li>
</ul>


In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);
The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;
The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in disfavor of China. 


China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

Will Recent US Announcements Derail the HK/China Bull Market?

Reevaluating the bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks amid potential shifts in US/China relations and uncertainty about Trump's willingness to...

Rikki Malik

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

AI related earnings exhibit a lack of ROI or uplift. Is the AI euphoria coming to an end? More U.S. sanctions could hurt Japan & European...

Neil Campling

China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

China's semiconductor bottleneck isn't lithography tools in the near term, it is etchers. We see ST pressure, MT opportunity and LT challenge from...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Will Recent US Announcements Derail the HK/China Bull Market?

​Reevaluating the bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks amid potential shifts in US/China relations and uncertainty about Trump's willingness to...

Rikki Malik

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

​August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

AI related earnings exhibit a lack of ROI or uplift. Is the AI euphoria coming to an end? More U.S. sanctions could hurt Japan & European...

Neil Campling

China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

China's semiconductor bottleneck isn't lithography tools in the near term, it is etchers. We see ST pressure, MT opportunity and LT challenge from...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Reevaluating the bullish stance on HK-listed China stocks amid potential shifts in US/China relations and uncertainty about Trump's willingness to...

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...