Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the most recent quarters HSBC saw its NIM decline from around 1.7% to 1.5%</li>
<li>As the bank de-risks its CRE lending it is left with a greater proportion of bad CRE loans</li>
<li>There can be more significant impairment charges on BoCom, the USD3bn done was small</li>
</ul>


In the most recent quarters HSBC saw its NIM decline from around 1.7% to 1.5%
As the bank de-risks its CRE lending it is left with a greater proportion of bad CRE loans
There can be more significant impairment charges on BoCom, the USD3bn done was small


HSBC - The Narrative Seems to Be Missing Many Points of the Reality

<ul>
<li>HK &amp; China CRE credit impaired loans are rising sharply and high in 3Q23. We believe there is risk that the bank has to take much higher credit costs. </li>
<li>Not only Mainland China CRE where there are risks. HSBC shows its ECL coverage ratio for HK CRE rising 45% over the past nine months, from 4Q22 to 3Q23. </li>
<li>LT credit costs shows HSBC's provisioning is like during a benign environment, at ~1/3 of its LT average. Its +34% QoQ credit costs in 4Q22 is worth keeping in mind. </li>
</ul>


HK &amp; China CRE credit impaired loans are rising sharply and high in 3Q23. We believe there is risk that the bank has to take much higher credit costs. 
Not only Mainland China CRE where there are risks. HSBC shows its ECL coverage ratio for HK CRE rising 45% over the past nine months, from 4Q22 to 3Q23. 
LT credit costs shows HSBC's provisioning is like during a benign environment, at ~1/3 of its LT average. Its +34% QoQ credit costs in 4Q22 is worth keeping in mind. 


HSBC - HK & China CRE Credit Impaired Loans Now 25.8% from 20.2% | ECL Coverage for HK CRE up 45%

<ul>
<li>In Jun 2023, CPPIB raised around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a>. Prior to that it had sold a similar amount in Mar 2022.</li>
<li>CPPIB will be released from its placement linked lockup early next month.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and past deals performance.</li>
</ul>


In Jun 2023, CPPIB raised around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN). Prior to that it had sold a similar amount in Mar 2022.
CPPIB will be released from its placement linked lockup early next month.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and past deals performance.


Kotak Mahindra Bank - US$1.2 Billion Lockup Release

<ul>
<li>DBS is now guiding for no profit growth during FY24. This may end up missing with negative growth more statistically likely, in a worsening world. </li>
<li>Credit metrics are not particularly positive in today's release with SGD215m of credit costs compared with SGD72m in the preceding quarter. </li>
<li>If rate rises are done or nearly done, than the main positive delta of DBS earnings are also done or nearly done. Management guidance suggests as much too. </li>
</ul>


DBS is now guiding for no profit growth during FY24. This may end up missing with negative growth more statistically likely, in a worsening world. 
Credit metrics are not particularly positive in today's release with SGD215m of credit costs compared with SGD72m in the preceding quarter. 
If rate rises are done or nearly done, than the main positive delta of DBS earnings are also done or nearly done. Management guidance suggests as much too. 


DBS - 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

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OCBC (OCBC SP)

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express' IPO linked lockup expired over the weeked. The stock has been correcting over the past few weeks, especially with the CCASS...

Sumeet Singh

HSBC - The Narrative Seems to Be Missing Many Points of the Reality

The HSBC narrative seems to be missing much of the reality: the sharp drop in NIM in 4Q23, the worsening proportion of bad CRE loans to total, and...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC - HK & China CRE Credit Impaired Loans Now 25.8% from 20.2% | ECL Coverage for HK CRE up 45%

NYCB, Aozora, now Pfandbriefbank in Germany, CRE risks are clear. HSBC is not only exposed in places like Hong Kong and China, but also material...

Daniel Tabbush

Kotak Mahindra Bank - US$1.2 Billion Lockup Release

In Jun 2023, CPPIB raised around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN). Prior to that it had sold a similar amount in...

Sumeet Singh

DBS - 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets

DBS is now guiding for 0% profit growth during FY24. The figures out today appear very much 'as good as they get.' Credit metrics are worsening,...

Daniel Tabbush

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