Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In past 2 quarters <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> saw its credit costs rise 150% YoY and then 250% YoY. For almost all of the preceding 8 quarters YoY growth was negative. </li>
<li>It holds 3.8% of total loans in Greater China CRE, a sector that has seen visible deterioration in some banks, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> is seeing weakness in main revenue lines, with worsening policy claims. Its profit delta this year is distorted from the base effect. </li>
</ul>


In past 2 quarters OCBC (OCBC SP) saw its credit costs rise 150% YoY and then 250% YoY. For almost all of the preceding 8 quarters YoY growth was negative. 
It holds 3.8% of total loans in Greater China CRE, a sector that has seen visible deterioration in some banks, like Standard Chartered (STAN LN) and HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN). 

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) is seeing weakness in main revenue lines, with worsening policy claims. Its profit delta this year is distorted from the base effect. 


OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>INSTITUTIONS were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to Sep 14, with S$18.4 million of net institutional inflow, while 24 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$25.9 million. led the share buyback consideration tally, buying back 1.2 million shares at an average price of S$12.58 per share, followed by which bought back 5.36 million shares at an average price of S$1.13 per share.</li><li>The five trading sessions saw 60 changes to director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for close to 30 primary-listed stocks.</li></ul>

INSTITUTIONS were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to Sep 14, with S$18.4 million of net institutional inflow, while 24 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$25.9 million. led the share buyback consideration tally, buying back 1.2 million shares at an average price of S$12.58 per share, followed by which bought back 5.36 million shares at an average price of S$1.13 per share.The five trading sessions saw 60 changes to director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for close to 30 primary-listed stocks.

GHY’s Guo Jingyu raises stake as group eyes turnaround, profitability

<ul><li>For the first three weeks of August, the STI declined 6.5% in-line with the FTSE China A50 Index losing 6.6%, before the STI retraced 2.5% of those losses to finish the month down 4.2%.</li><li>Singapore stocks booked net institutional inflows of S$408 million and net retail inflows of S$600 million over the month.</li><li>As tabled above, Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) booked S$163 million of net retail inflows in August, taking the accumulated net retail inflows for the first eight months of 2023 to S$201 million.</li></ul>

For the first three weeks of August, the STI declined 6.5% in-line with the FTSE China A50 Index losing 6.6%, before the STI retraced 2.5% of those losses to finish the month down 4.2%.Singapore stocks booked net institutional inflows of S$408 million and net retail inflows of S$600 million over the month.As tabled above, Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) booked S$163 million of net retail inflows in August, taking the accumulated net retail inflows for the first eight months of 2023 to S$201 million.

Institutions & Individual Investors Net Buyers of Singapore Stocks in August 

<ul><li>Singapore stocks have booked net institutional fund inflow for three consecutive weeks ending 25 August.</li><li>With four trading sessions for the month remaining, August is poised to be the first month local stocks have booked net inflows since Nov 2022.</li><li>Back in November 2022, UOB posted a 12.4% return and booked the highest net institutional inflow in the Singapore stock market for that month with S$306 million of net inflow.</li></ul>

Singapore stocks have booked net institutional fund inflow for three consecutive weeks ending 25 August.With four trading sessions for the month remaining, August is poised to be the first month local stocks have booked net inflows since Nov 2022.Back in November 2022, UOB posted a 12.4% return and booked the highest net institutional inflow in the Singapore stock market for that month with S$306 million of net inflow.

Singapore Stocks Poised to Book Net Institutional Inflows in August

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed profitability for the sub-sector, even though operational headwinds and policy uncertainty remain key challenges for the sector in the latter half of the year.</li><li>Suffice to say the trend in Insurers’ credit risk profiles, measured using Criat’s Credit Cycle Indices (CCCIs), has been non-homogenous across the continent with firms domiciled in economies such as South Korea and Hong Kong facing a substantially higher risk than those domiciled in Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan.</li><li>Strong net investment returns over the past year have helped boost profitability for most of the sub-sector that has increased its exposure to government securities. </li></ul>

Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed profitability for the sub-sector, even though operational headwinds and policy uncertainty remain key challenges for the sector in the latter half of the year.Suffice to say the trend in Insurers’ credit risk profiles, measured using Criat’s Credit Cycle Indices (CCCIs), has been non-homogenous across the continent with firms domiciled in economies such as South Korea and Hong Kong facing a substantially higher risk than those domiciled in Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan.Strong net investment returns over the past year have helped boost profitability for most of the sub-sector that has increased its exposure to government securities. 

Leaders and Laggards in Advanced Asia-Domiciled Insurance Sector

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

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OCBC (OCBC SP)

OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

OCBC releases results on 10 Nov. We believe the figures can underwhelm due largely to credit metrics. Insurance operations have also shown core...

Daniel Tabbush

GHY’s Guo Jingyu raises stake as group eyes turnaround, profitability

INSTITUTIONS were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to Sep 14, with S$18.4 million of net institutional...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Institutions & Individual Investors Net Buyers of Singapore Stocks in August

For the first three weeks of August, the STI declined 6.5% in-line with the FTSE China A50 Index losing 6.6%, before the STI retraced 2.5% of...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Stocks Poised to Book Net Institutional Inflows in August

Singapore stocks have booked net institutional fund inflow for three consecutive weeks ending 25 August. With four trading sessions for the month...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Leaders and Laggards in Advanced Asia-Domiciled Insurance Sector

Insurers domiciled in Advanced Asian Economies have reaped the benefits of the higher-for-longer interest rate environment that has buoyed...

Criat

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