Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

<p>Mid-Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of RV vs MXAPMid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of RV vs MXAP</p><h2>Reminder Last Week:</h2><p>Rating on ASX and Nifty were unchanged (overweight). HSCEI and HSI were upgraded from “hold” to “increase exposure” and TWSE downgraded from “increase” to “hold”. Nikkei and Kospi both long-term outperformers were under the radar for any tactical opportunities.</p><h2>This week:</h2><ul><li>Maintain Overweight” on ASX, Nifty, HSI and HSCEI.</li><li>Upgrade Nikkei from “hold “to “increase exposure”.</li><li>Long term/strategic Kospi outperformance in progress, however in the shorter term, the ratio Kospi/MXAP is not at good tactical entry level (now close to first long term target). Keep this country on “hold” /under the radar, for now, awaiting new signals/opportunities to play the long-term view. Same for TWSE already downgraded last week from increase to “hold”.</li></ul>

Mid-Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of RV vs MXAPMid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of RV vs MXAPReminder Last Week:Rating on ASX and Nifty were unchanged (overweight). HSCEI and HSI were upgraded from “hold” to “increase exposure” and TWSE downgraded from “increase” to “hold”. Nikkei and Kospi both long-term outperformers were under the radar for any tactical opportunities.This week:Maintain Overweight” on ASX, Nifty, HSI and HSCEI.Upgrade Nikkei from “hold “to “increase exposure”.Long term/strategic Kospi outperformance in progress, however in the shorter term, the ratio Kospi/MXAP is not at good tactical entry level (now close to first long term target). Keep this country on “hold” /under the radar, for now, awaiting new signals/opportunities to play the long-term view. Same for TWSE already downgraded last week from increase to “hold”.

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 10 May 2017

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p><strong>Chartonics flash </strong>Tuesday 30 August 2016</p><p><strong>USD/JPY macro low and position update webcast</strong></p><div>We have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…</div>

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke below 100 with a bull pivot above USD/JPY 101 which was triggered Friday. The bigger test revolves around USD sustainability above 101 and a successful test on the lower 101 pullback zone followed by a move through the second hurdle at 102.70. MT pivot resistance lies at 104 (macro bull targets come in at 110 and 114 with ideal objective at 114/117 in…

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Did Trump do <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a></strong> a solid, convincing them to sell assets that have profited from international trade growth, just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on anything that moves?</li>
<li>An OK package for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a></strong>. Not perfect. SEI IPO's a bit dodgy. It may be designed to spur ACT into action, but isn't an awful fallback.</li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill (3978 JP)</a></strong>'s Offer bumped.  If you want to make sure this deal doesn't get done, do the things you need to do to make sure it doesn't get done.</li>
</ul>


Did Trump do CKH (1 HK) a solid, convincing them to sell assets that have profited from international trade growth, just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on anything that moves?
An OK package for Seven &amp; I (3382 JP). Not perfect. SEI IPO's a bit dodgy. It may be designed to spur ACT into action, but isn't an awful fallback.

Macromill (3978 JP)'s Offer bumped.  If you want to make sure this deal doesn't get done, do the things you need to do to make sure it doesn't get done.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Cheung Kong, Macromill, China National Building Material, Canvest

Travis Lundy

Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-seikan-group-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11858:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)</a> started down the "good governance path" a couple of years ago. The stock ran up. Then it drifted back lower.</li>
<li>They had promised a decent payout ratio, cross-holding sales, and "buybacks conducted in an agile manner."</li>
<li>On Friday 28 Feb, the company announced a large buyback and future share cancellation.</li>
</ul>



Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) started down the "good governance path" a couple of years ago. The stock ran up. Then it drifted back lower.
They had promised a decent payout ratio, cross-holding sales, and "buybacks conducted in an agile manner."
On Friday 28 Feb, the company announced a large buyback and future share cancellation.


Toyo Seikan (5901) - Big New Buyback Shows The Way To a Breakout of 20yr Range

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>’s offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> is HK$2.65 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 21 January.  </li>
<li>The Board has recommended that shareholders not accept. However, based on CCASS data, including acceptances, Shandong Xinjufeng’s shareholding was 46.41% of outstanding shares as of 17 January.</li>
<li>Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross/annualized spread is 3.1%/128%.</li>
</ul>



Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)’s offer from Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) is HK$2.65 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 21 January.  
The Board has recommended that shareholders not accept. However, based on CCASS data, including acceptances, Shandong Xinjufeng’s shareholding was 46.41% of outstanding shares as of 17 January.
Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross/annualized spread is 3.1%/128%.


GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer on the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

Japan

Toyo Seikan Group Holdings Ltd primarily manufactures, markets, and sells metal, plastic, and glass packaging products and containers.  The Company specializes in food cans, 18-liter cans, and other beverage cans.  Toyo Seikan also produces steel products such as steel sheets.

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Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 10 May 2017

Mid-Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of RV vs MXAPMid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) in terms of RV vs MXAPReminder Last...

BBSP Asia

USD/JPY Macro Low and Fresh Position Webcast

Chartonics flash Tuesday 30 August 2016USD/JPY macro low and position update webcastWe have made a USD bull case from JPY 100 or 95 if we broke...

Thomas Schroeder

Last Week in Event SPACE: Cheung Kong, Macromill, China National Building Material, Canvest

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Toyo Seikan (5901) - Big New Buyback Shows The Way To a Breakout of 20yr Range

Toyo Seikan promised ¥100bn of buybacks in the 5 years to FY2027. It has done ¥50bn in 2yrs, and is launching another ¥30bn now. The promise of the...

Travis Lundy

GA Pack (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng’s Offer on the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

Absent an unlikely competing offer, the offer is on the cusp of being declared unconditional. At the last close and 4 February payment, the gross...

Arun George

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