Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 26th September, precision parts manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spindex-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17868:1" rel="noopener">Spindex Industries (SPE SP)</a> announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex's controlling shareholder, with 74.95%.</li>
<li>The Tan's offered S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed; but a decade-high price. A A$0.02/share was also bolted on (&amp; now paid). No competing Offer will emerge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Spindex_Scheme%20Document.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=868915" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Booklet is now out,</a> with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th December, and expected payment on the 11th Feb 2026. The IFA (Evolve Capital) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
</ul>


On the 26th September, precision parts manufacturer Spindex Industries (SPE SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex's controlling shareholder, with 74.95%.
The Tan's offered S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed; but a decade-high price. A A$0.02/share was also bolted on (&amp; now paid). No competing Offer will emerge.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th December, and expected payment on the 11th Feb 2026. The IFA (Evolve Capital) says "fair &amp; reasonable".


Spindex Inds (SPE SP): 18th Dec Vote On MBO

<ul>
<li>The gold rush continues with another Canadian outfit bidding to take over an Aussie-listed West African gold play. </li>
<li>Junior miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/african-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29028:1" rel="noopener">African Gold (A1G AU)</a>has entered into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43368:1" rel="noopener">Montage Gold (MAU CN)</a>. African Gold shareholders will receive 0.0628 new MAU shares for every A1G share.</li>
<li>That backs out an implied value of A$0.50/share. Independent directors, holding 11.6% of shares out, are supportive. Montage holds 17.3%. Clean deal.</li>
</ul>


The gold rush continues with another Canadian outfit bidding to take over an Aussie-listed West African gold play. 
Junior miner African Gold (A1G AU)has entered into a Scheme with Montage Gold (MAU CN). African Gold shareholders will receive 0.0628 new MAU shares for every A1G share.
That backs out an implied value of A$0.50/share. Independent directors, holding 11.6% of shares out, are supportive. Montage holds 17.3%. Clean deal.


African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)

<ul>
<li>Late Friday (28th November), general building contractor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/low-keng-huat-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1928:1" rel="noopener">Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP)</a> ("LKH") announced a voluntary conditional Offer from Dato' Marco Low Peng Kiat, LKH's controlling shareholder (54.13%).</li>
<li>Low is offering S$0.72/share, a so-so 17.1% premium to undisturbed, but a decade-high price. Plus the share price is up 104% YTD. Recent results (to 31st July) were also underwhelming.</li>
<li>The Offer has a 90% acceptance hurdle condition. Low does not intend to maintain listing. The price hasn't been declared final, possibly leading to a bump in the home stretch. </li>
</ul>


Late Friday (28th November), general building contractor Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP) ("LKH") announced a voluntary conditional Offer from Dato' Marco Low Peng Kiat, LKH's controlling shareholder (54.13%).
Low is offering S$0.72/share, a so-so 17.1% premium to undisturbed, but a decade-high price. Plus the share price is up 104% YTD. Recent results (to 31st July) were also underwhelming.
The Offer has a 90% acceptance hurdle condition. Low does not intend to maintain listing. The price hasn't been declared final, possibly leading to a bump in the home stretch. 


<ul>
<li>For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2025 Wrap: Qube, Forum Engineering, National Storage REIT, Star Micronics

<ul>
<li>This deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a> from Macquarie should really get competitive. Scarce and strategic assets  - and nothing else like it that's listed. </li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings (2389 JP)</a> goes higher, "This is Japan" risk increases; but those who didn't sign up say "wait a minute, that's real money" also goes up.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:606:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)</a> is at extreme levels vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a>; yet consensus indicates considerably higher forward EBITDA growth for Resorts stub ops vs. Macau.</li>
</ul>


This deal for Qube Holdings (QUB AU) from Macquarie should really get competitive. Scarce and strategic assets  - and nothing else like it that's listed. 
As Digital Holdings (2389 JP) goes higher, "This is Japan" risk increases; but those who didn't sign up say "wait a minute, that's real money" also goes up.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) is at extreme levels vs. Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK); yet consensus indicates considerably higher forward EBITDA growth for Resorts stub ops vs. Macau.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Qube Holdings, Digital Holdings, Wynn Resorts/Macau, SNT/SMEC

New Zealand

Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited operates fast food restaurant chains in New Zealand & Australia. The Company operates close to 300 stores which operate under the KFC, Pizza Hut and Starbucks restaurant names.

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Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ)

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