Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison (1 HK)</a> initiates a second arbitration against the Republic of Panama after Panama's highest court annulled CKH's port contracts earlier this year. </li>
<li>After falling post-1H26 results,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a> is inexpensive to its parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-united-network-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12620:1" rel="noopener">China United Network A (600050 CH)</a> - its hybrid domestic A-share twin </li>
<li>The "upside-down world" continues as Trump embraces North Korea, and amps up hostility towards it southern neighbour, possibly disrupting Hanwha's acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a>'s US ops. </li>
</ul>



CK Hutchison (1 HK) initiates a second arbitration against the Republic of Panama after Panama's highest court annulled CKH's port contracts earlier this year. 
After falling post-1H26 results,  China Unicom (762 HK) is inexpensive to its parent China United Network A (600050 CH) - its hybrid domestic A-share twin 
The "upside-down world" continues as Trump embraces North Korea, and amps up hostility towards it southern neighbour, possibly disrupting Hanwha's acquisition of Austal Ltd (ASB AU)'s US ops. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, China Unicom, Austal, Steadfast

<ul>
<li>After falling 12% post-1H26 results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a> is inexpensive to its parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-united-network-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12620:1" rel="noopener">China United Network A (600050 CH)</a> - its hybrid domestic A-share twin - and to peers</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Unicom, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


After falling 12% post-1H26 results, China Unicom (762 HK) is inexpensive to its parent China United Network A (600050 CH) - its hybrid domestic A-share twin - and to peers
Preceding my comments on Unicom, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 100 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on POLY DEVELOPMENTS, CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL, Longi Green, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, SATELLITE CHEMICAL, HENGLI PETROCHEMICAL, CHONGQING ZHIFEI BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, YUNNAN ALUMINIUM.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 100 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on POLY DEVELOPMENTS, CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL, Longi Green, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, SATELLITE CHEMICAL, HENGLI PETROCHEMICAL, CHONGQING ZHIFEI BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, YUNNAN ALUMINIUM.


CSI 100 Index Earning Revision (Jun): POLY DEVELOPMENTS, CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL

Travis Lundy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In 1998, before the US and China entered into Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China in 2000, the US Congress enacted a law requiring the Clinton Administration to publish a list of Chinese companies in the US which did business with the People's Liberation Army (Public Law 105-261, Section 1237), and a "Communist Chinese military company" was defined in that law as any company named in to Defense Intelligence Agency documents from 1990 and 1995 and "any other entity owned or controlled by the PLA and engaged in providing commercial services, manufacturing, or exporting."That law basically lay dormant until last year when the Pentagon launched a review of such companies following the Trump White House's labelling of China (and Russia) a "revisionist" power in its first National Security Strategy <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905-2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> in 2017. The goal was to investigate and warn about supply-chain vulnerabilities. The Department of Defense published a list in June 2020 of 20 companies which were "Qualified Entities". It updated the list in late August 2020. The former Secretary of Defense was ousted several days ago and the new Secretary of Defense is now responsible for the list. There is, as of last night, an Executive Order by the White House blocking US 'persons' investment in any of the names mentioned - a list now 31 names long.More below on the impact.

In 1998, before the US and China entered into Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China in 2000, the US Congress enacted a law requiring the Clinton Administration to publish a list of Chinese companies in the US which did business with the People's Liberation Army (Public Law 105-261, Section 1237), and a "Communist Chinese military company" was defined in that law as any company named in to Defense Intelligence Agency documents from 1990 and 1995 and "any other entity owned or controlled by the PLA and engaged in providing commercial services, manufacturing, or exporting."That law basically lay dormant until last year when the Pentagon launched a review of such companies following the Trump White House's labelling of China (and Russia) a "revisionist" power in its first National Security Strategy report in 2017. The goal was to investigate and warn about supply-chain vulnerabilities. The Department of Defense published a list in June 2020 of 20 companies which were "Qualified Entities". It updated the list in late August 2020. The former Secretary of Defense was ousted several days ago and the new Secretary of Defense is now responsible for the list. There is, as of last night, an Executive Order by the White House blocking US 'persons' investment in any of the names mentioned - a list now 31 names long.More below on the impact.

Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies

China

China United Network Communications Limited provides a variety of telecommunication services, including GSM and CDMA wireless telecommunication services, international and domestic long distance communication services, data communication and Internet services, as well as paging services.

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China United Network A (600050 CH)

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, China Unicom, Austal, Steadfast

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Unicom's "Hs" Are Cheap

After falling 12% post-1H26 results, China Unicom (762 HK) is inexpensive to its parent China United Network A (600050 CH) - its hybrid domestic A...

David Blennerhassett

CSI 100 Index Earning Revision (Jun): POLY DEVELOPMENTS, CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL

We analyzed CSI 100's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in POLY DEVELOPMENTS (600048 CH), CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL (600028...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies

The White House announced an Executive Order prohibiting "US persons" from "providing capital" to a list of "China Military Cos" which has been...

Travis Lundy

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