HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a>, while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. </li>
<li>Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> are the two potential best bets.</li>
</ul>


With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.

Sands China (1928 HK), while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. 
Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, New World Development (17 HK) and Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) are the two potential best bets.


HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Apple reported FY4Q24 (CY3Q23) revenue of US$94.9bn (+6% YoY) and EPS of US$0.97 (-34% YoY, +12% YoY excl. one-off charge), both above market consensus, thanks to better smartphone sales and continued margin expansion.</li><li>We are also encouraged by GPM of 46.2%, close to high-end of guidance range.</li><li>For FY1Q25E, mgmt. guided revenue growth at a lower pace (low-to-mid-singledigits YoY), while service revenue will grow at double digits at a similar rate in 1- 4QFY24 (+11-14% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apple reported FY4Q24 (CY3Q23) revenue of US$94.9bn (+6% YoY) and EPS of US$0.97 (-34% YoY, +12% YoY excl. one-off charge), both above market consensus, thanks to better smartphone sales and continued margin expansion.We are also encouraged by GPM of 46.2%, close to high-end of guidance range.For FY1Q25E, mgmt. guided revenue growth at a lower pace (low-to-mid-singledigits YoY), while service revenue will grow at double digits at a similar rate in 1- 4QFY24 (+11-14% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Apple FY4Q24 Beat on Better Margin and China Sales

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) </a>will suffer from a higher USD rate as Trump's massive deportation plan raises inflation.  High-cash companies will better position, however.</li>
<li>The surge in tariffs on US imports of goods from China will further accelerate supply chain diversification, boosting intra-Asia trade and driving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC (883 HK)</a> may gain from a slowdown in the green transition in the US as oil prices are supported. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meitu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23573:1" rel="noopener">Meitu Inc (1357 HK)</a>, given its crypto investments, will benefit. </li>
</ul>



China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) will suffer from a higher USD rate as Trump's massive deportation plan raises inflation.  High-cash companies will better position, however.
The surge in tariffs on US imports of goods from China will further accelerate supply chain diversification, boosting intra-Asia trade and driving SITC International (1308 HK). 

CNOOC (883 HK) may gain from a slowdown in the green transition in the US as oil prices are supported. Meitu Inc (1357 HK), given its crypto investments, will benefit. 


China & HK Strategy: Some Stocks for Trump Trade

<ul><li>Largan (3008 TT, NR) announced 3Q results with revenue/GPM improved 73% and 1.8ppts QoQ thanks to the smartphone cycle, customers’ new model launches, shipment ramp-up, better product mix/ASP/UTR.</li><li>For 4Q24E/2025, mgmt. guided flattish Oct. shipments but Nov. shipments will decline MoM due to customers’ order cuts.</li><li>On the positive side, mgmt. maintained a positive view on stable ASP thanks to customer agreements, and pre-build orders for 1Q25E are well on track. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Largan (3008 TT, NR) announced 3Q results with revenue/GPM improved 73% and 1.8ppts QoQ thanks to the smartphone cycle, customers’ new model launches, shipment ramp-up, better product mix/ASP/UTR.For 4Q24E/2025, mgmt. guided flattish Oct. shipments but Nov. shipments will decline MoM due to customers’ order cuts.On the positive side, mgmt. maintained a positive view on stable ASP thanks to customer agreements, and pre-build orders for 1Q25E are well on track. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Implications of Largan 3Q24 Results

China

Sunny Optical Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. is a leading global manufacturer of integrated optical components and products. The company designs, researches, develops, manufactures, and sells optical and optical-related products, including lenses for handsets, vehicles, and security, as well as camera modules, vehicle modules, microscopes, and intelligent inspection equipment. It is headquartered in Yuyao, Zhejiang, China, and was founded in 1984.

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Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK)

HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

With the Fed hinting at a slower rate cut path, the beneficiaries mentioned in this Insight will turn to suffer more. The names with the highest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Technology - Apple FY4Q24 Beat on Better Margin and China Sales

Apple reported FY4Q24 (CY3Q23) revenue of US$94.9bn (+6% YoY) and EPS of US$0.97 (-34% YoY, +12% YoY excl. one-off charge), both above market...

CMB International

China & HK Strategy: Some Stocks for Trump Trade

A higher USD rate due to Trump's deportation plan will impact CSA. Tariff surge on US imports from China will boost SITC. CNOOC may benefit from...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technology - Implications of Largan 3Q24 Results

On the positive side, mgmt. maintained a positive view on stable ASP thanks to customer agreements, and pre-build orders for 1Q25E are well on track.

CMB International

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52-week Range

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HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

With the Fed hinting at a slower rate cut path, the beneficiaries mentioned in this Insight will turn to suffer more. The names with the highest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Technology - Apple FY4Q24 Beat on Better Margin and China Sales

Apple reported FY4Q24 (CY3Q23) revenue of US$94.9bn (+6% YoY) and EPS of US$0.97 (-34% YoY, +12% YoY excl. one-off charge), both above market...

CMB International

China & HK Strategy: Some Stocks for Trump Trade

​A higher USD rate due to Trump's deportation plan will impact CSA. Tariff surge on US imports from China will boost SITC. CNOOC may benefit from...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technology - Implications of Largan 3Q24 Results

On the positive side, mgmt. maintained a positive view on stable ASP thanks to customer agreements, and pre-build orders for 1Q25E are well on track.

CMB International

A higher USD rate due to Trump's deportation plan will impact CSA. Tariff surge on US imports from China will boost SITC. CNOOC may benefit from...