Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Our proprietary index shows price momentum has continued to weaken in Q3</li>
<li>Some carriers have tightened FY25 earnings ranges, but mood mostly downbeat</li>
<li>We remain -ive on the sector; stay SHORT ZIM against LONG CM PORTS pair</li>
</ul>


Our proprietary index shows price momentum has continued to weaken in Q3
Some carriers have tightened FY25 earnings ranges, but mood mostly downbeat
We remain -ive on the sector; stay SHORT ZIM against LONG CM PORTS pair


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates, Earnings, Cash Flow All Collapsing (August 2025)

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Minister Jin, Busan’s sole ruling-party lawmaker, gives his out-of-the-blue remarks significant political weight, making the local-government HMM stake plan materially more likely than mere weekend chatter.</li>
<li>Fresh newsflow shifts the tender hedge narrative: Jin’s remark likely nudges KOBC toward skipping, while KDB is locked in.</li>
<li>KOBC’s tender decision and Jin’s remarks could flip post-tender bias, raising hedge difficulty; a cautious approach is needed, monitoring price action and exposure risk before stepping in.</li>
</ul>


Minister Jin, Busan’s sole ruling-party lawmaker, gives his out-of-the-blue remarks significant political weight, making the local-government HMM stake plan materially more likely than mere weekend chatter.
Fresh newsflow shifts the tender hedge narrative: Jin’s remark likely nudges KOBC toward skipping, while KDB is locked in.
KOBC’s tender decision and Jin’s remarks could flip post-tender bias, raising hedge difficulty; a cautious approach is needed, monitoring price action and exposure risk before stepping in.


Fresh, Highly Noteworthy Newsflow Hits the HMM Tender

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 15th. The aggregated short interest was USD10.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in SamsungF&amp;MIns, Samsung SDI, SK Hynix, LG H&amp;H, Kakao.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 15th. The aggregated short interest was USD10.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in SamsungF&amp;MIns, Samsung SDI, SK Hynix, LG H&amp;H, Kakao.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 15th): SamsungF&MIns, Samsung SDI, SK Hynix, LG H&H, Kakao

<ul>
<li>Most traders are starting in September, rolling into October. Sep/Oct spread volume has picked up unusually fast, clearly reflecting hedge demand linked to the tender</li>
<li>As September expiry approaches, basis-squeeze risk rises, likely pushing September cheap and October expensive, widening the spread — creating a clear side trade opportunity.</li>
<li>With a basis squeeze expected near September expiry, we could enter a Sep/Oct spread (short Sep, long Oct) and also watch for spot-futures decoupling to play the cash-futures spread.</li>
</ul>


Most traders are starting in September, rolling into October. Sep/Oct spread volume has picked up unusually fast, clearly reflecting hedge demand linked to the tender
As September expiry approaches, basis-squeeze risk rises, likely pushing September cheap and October expensive, widening the spread — creating a clear side trade opportunity.
With a basis squeeze expected near September expiry, we could enter a Sep/Oct spread (short Sep, long Oct) and also watch for spot-futures decoupling to play the cash-futures spread.


HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry

<ul>
<li>KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.</li>
<li>Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.</li>
<li>Spread &gt;10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.</li>
</ul>


KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.
Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.
Spread &gt;10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.


Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

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HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates, Earnings, Cash Flow All Collapsing (August 2025)

Container shipping price, earnings, and cash flow all remain weak in Q3. We expect conditions to remain challenging in the medium-term, and our...

Tracking Traffic

Fresh, Highly Noteworthy Newsflow Hits the HMM Tender

This post covers significant new newsflow impacting the HMM tender, including potential shifts in key participants’ positions and implications for...

Sanghyun Park

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 15th): SamsungF&MIns, Samsung SDI, SK Hynix, LG H&H, Kakao

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in SamsungF&MIns, Samsung SDI, SK Hynix, LG H&H, Kakao.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry

This post explores a side trade opportunity from the HMM tender event: targeting a basis squeeze near September futures expiry.

Sanghyun Park

Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

This post looks into today’s HMM tender follow-up disclosure and provides insights on structuring hedge ratio positioning.

Sanghyun Park

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