Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.</li>
<li>Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.</li>
<li>Spread &gt;10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.</li>
</ul>


KOBC’s core mission hinges on HMM; without it, no real mandate. Structural incentive to hold remains, so its active tender participation is still questionable.
Still, max proration risk seems base case, with weak Q2, soft Q3 freight outlook, and post-tender skew pointing bearish for HMM.
Spread &gt;10% makes this too good to pass, but should also watch policy risk — better to lock futures hedge early as flows show players scrambling for cover.


Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a> as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)</a> is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.</li>
</ul>



Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

<ul>
<li>Watch next Monday’s premium and the share slice we can grab—these will drive hedge sizing with futures or other plays.</li>
<li>Premium sits in the late 10% range, above expectations; HMM’s float is tight, with 80%+ effectively locked by KDB, KOBC, NPS, and passive holders.</li>
<li>The tender pool is capped at ~15% of shares; with KDB taking 3–3.5%, about 4.5–5% remains available for the market.</li>
</ul>


Watch next Monday’s premium and the share slice we can grab—these will drive hedge sizing with futures or other plays.
Premium sits in the late 10% range, above expectations; HMM’s float is tight, with 80%+ effectively locked by KDB, KOBC, NPS, and passive holders.
The tender pool is capped at ~15% of shares; with KDB taking 3–3.5%, about 4.5–5% remains available for the market.


HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 8th. The aggregated short interest was USD10.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Silicon2, NAVER, LG Chem, KakaoBank, POSCO FUTURE M.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 8th. The aggregated short interest was USD10.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Silicon2, NAVER, LG Chem, KakaoBank, POSCO FUTURE M.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 8th): Silicon2, NAVER, LG Chem, KakaoBank, POSCO FUTURE M

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated short interest was USD9.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG H&amp;H, Hanwha Vision.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated short interest was USD9.7bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG H&amp;H, Hanwha Vision.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG H&H

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

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HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)

Today’s HMM Tender Follow-Up Disclosure and Hedge Ratio Setup

This post looks into today’s HMM tender follow-up disclosure and provides insights on structuring hedge ratio positioning.

Sanghyun Park

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

HMM KRW 2T Tender: Full Pro-Rata Risk Assessment

This post details HMM’s KRW 2 trillion tender buyback, just disclosed, and provides a full assessment of the pro-rata risk.

Sanghyun Park

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 8th): Silicon2, NAVER, LG Chem, KakaoBank, POSCO FUTURE M

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Silicon2, NAVER, LG Chem, KakaoBank, POSCO FUTURE M.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG H&H

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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