Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Analysts are bullish on FEHT due to strong second half fiscal year 2024 hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) and merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) prospects. </li><li>DBS is cautious about the long-term market gains from China's AI breakthrough, expressing skepticism about its potential impact on boosting the market. </li><li>CGSI has upgraded ISDN to 'add' and raised their target price to 35 cents, citing an industrial automation-led recovery as the reason for the upgrade.</li></ul>

Analysts are bullish on FEHT due to strong second half fiscal year 2024 hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) and merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) prospects. DBS is cautious about the long-term market gains from China's AI breakthrough, expressing skepticism about its potential impact on boosting the market. CGSI has upgraded ISDN to 'add' and raised their target price to 35 cents, citing an industrial automation-led recovery as the reason for the upgrade.

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Feb-2025): FEHT favored for strong RevPAR and M&A in 2HFY2024.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> are massive laggards YTD.</li>
<li>As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. </li>
</ul>


Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.

Li Auto (2015 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) are massive laggards YTD.
As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. 


HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

<ul>
<li>The winners in the tension are the defense companies including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avic-shenyang-aircraft-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12150:1" rel="noopener">Avic Shenyang Aircraft (600760 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cssc-offshore-marine-engg-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5089:1" rel="noopener">Cssc Offshore &amp; Marine Engg (317 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Pelosi's Taiwan visit may ignite another round of nationalistic consumption. This will benefit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports (2020 HK)</a> but is negative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International (6110 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (981 HK)</a> is a long-term beneficiary. There may be adverse spillover effects on Taiwanese companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tingyi-cayman-islands-holding-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14016:1" rel="noopener">Tingyi (322 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uni-president-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14927:1" rel="noopener">Uni President China (220 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The winners in the tension are the defense companies including Avic Shenyang Aircraft (600760 CH), AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK) and Cssc Offshore &amp; Marine Engg (317 HK). 
Pelosi's Taiwan visit may ignite another round of nationalistic consumption. This will benefit Li Ning (2331 HK) and Anta Sports (2020 HK) but is negative to Topsports International (6110 HK). 

SMIC (981 HK) is a long-term beneficiary. There may be adverse spillover effects on Taiwanese companies like Tingyi (322 HK), Want Want (151 HK) and Uni President China (220 HK). 


China-US Tension Escalation: Winners and Losers on Pelosi's Taiwan Visit

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muyuan-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3705:1" rel="noopener">Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK)</a> (MF), a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing. Its cornerstone investors will soon be released from their lockup.</li>
<li>MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK) (MF), a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing. Its cornerstone investors will soon be released from their lockup.
MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Muyuan Food A/H Lockup Expiry - US$580m Cornerstone Unlock

China

Tingyi is a major Chinese packaged food and beverage company that manufactures and sells instant noodles, ready-to-drink teas, juices, bottled water, and other instant food products under its Master Kong brand. It also engages in property investment and logistics. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Tingyi (322 HK)

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Feb-2025): FEHT favored for strong RevPAR and M&A in 2HFY2024.

FEHT is favored by analysts for strong hotel RevPAR, DBS is skeptical of China's AI breakthrough, and CGSI upgrades ISDN on industrial automation...

Singapore Market Roundup

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China-US Tension Escalation: Winners and Losers on Pelosi's Taiwan Visit

Chinese defense companies are the major winners in the escalation of the China-US tension following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. We think Topsports,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Aequitas: Muyuan Food A/H Lockup Expiry - US$580m Cornerstone Unlock

Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK) (MF), a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing. Its cornerstone investors will...

Sumeet Singh

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