IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>BeerCo consists of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to conduct a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo through an SGX IPO. The IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, according to press reports. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47885" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look</a>, we noted that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47927" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look</a>, we opined that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we take a close look at the BeerCo's 1QFY2021 results released alongside ThaiBev's 1QFY2021 results. BeerCo’s 1QFY2021 results are mixed as the top-line decline driven by largely one-off factors was accompanied by ongoing margin progression and cash generation. We continue to believe that BeerCo is well-placed to return to growth as the year unfolds due to a gradual recovery in on-premise consumption and undemanding comparable periods. </p></div>

BeerCo consists of Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to conduct a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo through an SGX IPO. The IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, according to press reports. In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look, we noted that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look, we opined that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. In this note, we take a close look at the BeerCo's 1QFY2021 results released alongside ThaiBev's 1QFY2021 results. BeerCo’s 1QFY2021 results are mixed as the top-line decline driven by largely one-off factors was accompanied by ongoing margin progression and cash generation. We continue to believe that BeerCo is well-placed to return to growth as the year unfolds due to a gradual recovery in on-premise consumption and undemanding comparable periods. 

ThaiBev’s BeerCo Limited IPO: 1Q Results

<div><p>BeerCo consists of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to raise $2 billion and seek up to a $10 billion valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47885" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look</a>, we opined that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. Consequently, BeerCo warrants a closer look. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. </p></div></div></div>

BeerCo consists of Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev aims to raise $2 billion and seek up to a $10 billion valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports.In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look, we opined that BeerCo has attractive fundamentals as it will return to growth driven by the recovery in on-premise consumption as the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. Consequently, BeerCo warrants a closer look. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that BeerCo's rumoured valuation of $10 billion can be justified. 

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look

<p>BeerCo consists of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev announced that its has received a no-objection letter from SGX-ST to conduct a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo. The IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, according to press reports. The IPO was delayed from last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The BeerCo IPO could potentially be SGX’s biggest since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchison-port-holdings-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10512:1" rel="noopener">Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP)</a> raised $5.5 billion in 2011.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>BeerCo’s diversified portfolio of brands and products allows it to cater to different segment groups and price points, preserving its strong market share and providing earnings resiliency. Post-COVID-19, the recovery in on-premise consumption should help the eventual return to growth. In this note, we take a first look at BeerCo’s fundamentals.  </p></div>

BeerCo consists of Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s beer business and operations except for the sale of Thai beer products outside Thailand. ThaiBev announced that its has received a no-objection letter from SGX-ST to conduct a public offering of up to 20% of the total number of issued ordinary shares of BeerCo. The IPO could raise as much as $2 billion, according to press reports. The IPO was delayed from last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The BeerCo IPO could potentially be SGX’s biggest since Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP) raised $5.5 billion in 2011.BeerCo’s diversified portfolio of brands and products allows it to cater to different segment groups and price points, preserving its strong market share and providing earnings resiliency. Post-COVID-19, the recovery in on-premise consumption should help the eventual return to growth. In this note, we take a first look at BeerCo’s fundamentals.  

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The coronavirus is rampaging across Japan again, and the Japanese government is considering extending the state of emergency declared in and around the Tokyo area until the end of February. The Suga administration is also considering declaring a state of emergency in other parts of the country that are continuing to see a high number of coronavirus cases.</li>
<li>As a result, holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei stated that Florida requested the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to consider relocating the 2021 Games to Florida, although the IOC denies such claims.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>, a <a target="_blank">Gold Partner </a>in the Tokyo Olympics and the sole sponsor in the Beer &amp; Wine category at the Tokyo Olympics, is expected to lose the most compared to Japanese beer companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a> if the Olympics is held behind closed doors or relocated.</li>
</ul>


The coronavirus is rampaging across Japan again, and the Japanese government is considering extending the state of emergency declared in and around the Tokyo area until the end of February. The Suga administration is also considering declaring a state of emergency in other parts of the country that are continuing to see a high number of coronavirus cases.
As a result, holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei stated that Florida requested the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to consider relocating the 2021 Games to Florida, although the IOC denies such claims.

Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP), a Gold Partner in the Tokyo Olympics and the sole sponsor in the Beer &amp; Wine category at the Tokyo Olympics, is expected to lose the most compared to Japanese beer companies like Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) and Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP) if the Olympics is held behind closed doors or relocated.


Long Kirin/​Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>Last Friday, mid-cap specialist elevator maker (in the top ten globally) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> announced a <a href="https://www.fujitec.com/common/fjhp/doc/top_global/document/irnews/2139/20201204_Fujitec%20Co.,%20Ltd.%20Announces%20Future%20Strategic%20Direction%20Plan.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Future Strategy Direction Plan</a> which focused on "priority business areas in the medium-and-long-term, the Company's medium- and long-term strategic targets, and measures aimed at strengthening its governance structure. </p><p>This <em>sounds</em> kind of jargon-y. Some of it certainly is. But there is actually more than that under the cover, and it is designed to mollify activists who have pursued the company for years. </p><p>The stock has hardly reacted. Some details clearly kick the can but there is a timer set for summer 2022. </p><p>More below the fold. </p>

Last Friday, mid-cap specialist elevator maker (in the top ten globally) Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) announced a Future Strategy Direction Plan which focused on "priority business areas in the medium-and-long-term, the Company's medium- and long-term strategic targets, and measures aimed at strengthening its governance structure. This sounds kind of jargon-y. Some of it certainly is. But there is actually more than that under the cover, and it is designed to mollify activists who have pursued the company for years. The stock has hardly reacted. Some details clearly kick the can but there is a timer set for summer 2022. More below the fold. 

Activist Pressure FINALLY Works on Fujitec (6406)- Going Up? (Albeit Slowly)

Japan

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

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Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)

ThaiBev’s BeerCo Limited IPO: 1Q Results

BeerCo's 1QFY2021 results suggest that it is well-placed to return to growth as the year unfolds due to a gradual recovery in on-premise...

Arun George

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look

ThaiBev aims to raise $2bn and seek up to a $10bn valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that...

Arun George

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look

ThaiBev's BeerCo IPO could raise as much as $2 billion on the SGX, according to press reports. In this note, we take a first look at BeerCo’s...

Arun George

Long Kirin/Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

Holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Activist Pressure FINALLY Works on Fujitec (6406)- Going Up? (Albeit Slowly)

Fujitec activist pressure finally seems to have shown results as the company buckles, and undertakes to pursue some activist demands. A small win....

Travis Lundy

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ThaiBev’s BeerCo Limited IPO: 1Q Results

BeerCo's 1QFY2021 results suggest that it is well-placed to return to growth as the year unfolds due to a gradual recovery in on-premise...

Arun George

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Valuation First Look

ThaiBev aims to raise $2bn and seek up to a $10bn valuation for BeerCo, according to press reports. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests that...

Arun George

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: First Look

ThaiBev's BeerCo IPO could raise as much as $2 billion on the SGX, according to press reports. In this note, we take a first look at BeerCo’s...

Arun George

Long Kirin/​Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

Holding the Tokyo Olympics as planned in July 2021 with the attendance of fans is becoming increasing unlikely. Additionally, an article on Nikkei...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Activist Pressure FINALLY Works on Fujitec (6406)- Going Up? (Albeit Slowly)

Fujitec activist pressure finally seems to have shown results as the company buckles, and undertakes to pursue some activist demands. A small win....

Travis Lundy

Long Kirin/Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt