Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> ’s share price has been up more than 40% YTD driven by better-than-expected earnings and an announcement to buy back ¥600bn worth shares.</li>
<li>The company’s 1Q earnings beat consensus and showed some recovery across all business segments, however, the labour markets are heading towards a decline.</li>
<li>It seems that the company has run out of investment options, and we would not rush to make an entry as worst is not over yet for the company.</li>
</ul>



Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) ’s share price has been up more than 40% YTD driven by better-than-expected earnings and an announcement to buy back ¥600bn worth shares.
The company’s 1Q earnings beat consensus and showed some recovery across all business segments, however, the labour markets are heading towards a decline.
It seems that the company has run out of investment options, and we would not rush to make an entry as worst is not over yet for the company.


Recruit: Labour Markets Continue to Trend Down, but Recruit’s Efforts Pay Off in 1Q

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.</li>
<li>This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell. </li>
<li>I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.</li>
</ul>



Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.
This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell. 
I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.


JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 - 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a> raised US$300m in its Japan IPO. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.</li>
<li>Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Timee Inc (215A JP) raised US$300m in its Japan IPO. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.
Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Timee IPO Trading - Garnered a Strong Demand, Should Pop

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP).</a>
</li>
<li>In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).

In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.
In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.


ASICS Placement Updates - Share Pop Done, Now Needs to Correct

Japan

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

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Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)

Recruit: Labour Markets Continue to Trend Down, but Recruit’s Efforts Pay Off in 1Q

Recruit's share price is up more than 40% YTD driven by better than expected earnings and share buyback. Labour markets globally are heading...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 - 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

The JPX Nikkei 400 annual index rebal is upon us. Janaghan's predictions were good at the higher conviction levels. This is OK size (nearly ¥1trln...

Travis Lundy

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Timee IPO Trading - Garnered a Strong Demand, Should Pop

Timee Inc (215A JP) raised US$300m in its Japan IPO. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.

Clarence Chu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Recruit: Labour Markets Continue to Trend Down, but Recruit’s Efforts Pay Off in 1Q

​Recruit's share price is up more than 40% YTD driven by better than expected earnings and share buyback. Labour markets globally are heading...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 - 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

The JPX Nikkei 400 annual index rebal is upon us. Janaghan's predictions were good at the higher conviction levels. This is OK size (nearly ¥1trln...

Travis Lundy

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Timee IPO Trading - Garnered a Strong Demand, Should Pop

Timee Inc (215A JP) raised US$300m in its Japan IPO. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown by existing shareholders.

Clarence Chu

ASICS Placement Updates - Share Pop Done, Now Needs to Correct

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP). We have looked at the deal dyanmics in our...

Sumeet Singh

Recruit's share price is up more than 40% YTD driven by better than expected earnings and share buyback. Labour markets globally are heading...