HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's toll road sector has gone up by 47.4% since 2022, but it remains an excellent yield play with an average yield of 7.2% and 7.8% in FY24 and FY25.</li>
<li>1Q24 profit is solid, with 3-year forecast earnings CAGR at a healthy 6.5%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-expressway-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5236:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Expressway H (995 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-express-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9956:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK)</a> have the most consistent DPS trend.</li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-express-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9956:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK)</a> for its track record and growth prospects. As a relative underperformer in the sector, it is poised to catch up.</li>
</ul>


China's toll road sector has gone up by 47.4% since 2022, but it remains an excellent yield play with an average yield of 7.2% and 7.8% in FY24 and FY25.
1Q24 profit is solid, with 3-year forecast earnings CAGR at a healthy 6.5%. Anhui Expressway H (995 HK) and Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK) have the most consistent DPS trend.
We like Jiangsu Expressway (H) (177 HK) for its track record and growth prospects. As a relative underperformer in the sector, it is poised to catch up.


China Toll Road Sector: Higher for Longer......Yields

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>By way of its 54.79% ownership in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities (601878 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK)</a> is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  </li>
<li>The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE's market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE's 1H24 profit.</li>
<li>ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.</li>
</ul>


By way of its 54.79% ownership in Zheshang Securities (601878 CH), Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  
The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE's market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE's 1H24 profit.
ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.


Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 200 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 92.3% as of Oct 9th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, industrials, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 200 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 92.3% as of Oct 9th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, industrials, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 196 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.8% as of Sep 4th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, consumer staples, consumer discretionary and offset by energy, financials, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China South Air, Remegen, China Telecom, Muyuan Foods, Conch Cement, Minsheng Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 196 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.8% as of Sep 4th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, consumer staples, consumer discretionary and offset by energy, financials, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China South Air, Remegen, China Telecom, Muyuan Foods, Conch Cement, Minsheng Bank.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 4th): China South Air, Remegen, China Telecom, Muyuan Foods, Conch Cement

Podcast by Magellan Asset Management, Magellan Asset Management

MAGELLAN - IN THE KNOW

Podcast by Magellan Asset Management

Magellan Asset Management

‘In The Know’ is a new monthly investment podcast brought to you by Magellan Asset Management, one of Australia’s leading global equities investors. We seek to bring you timely, unique and thought-provoking insights to help you make sense of today’s investment landscape. From deep dives into the latest macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, to our analysis on sectors and stocks on global markets. Join Magellan, as they connect with a myriad of experts in their field, including CEOs of stocks we hold, global leaders and consultants in finance, investing, risk and politics, and key members of our investment team and business. ‘In The Know’ - a monthly podcast from Magellan is worth investing your time in! Magellan - Experts in global investing.

<ul>
<li>Gerald Stack, Ben McVicar, and Ofa Karlina discuss investing in infrastructure and the opportunities it offers</li>
<li>Infrastructure assets provide essential services like energy, water, and transport, leading to reliable and predictable long-term demand</li>
<li>Short-term problems or opportunities in infrastructure companies can impact share prices, creating investment opportunities for savvy investors</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>


Gerald Stack, Ben McVicar, and Ofa Karlina discuss investing in infrastructure and the opportunities it offers
Infrastructure assets provide essential services like energy, water, and transport, leading to reliable and predictable long-term demand
Short-term problems or opportunities in infrastructure companies can impact share prices, creating investment opportunities for savvy investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Lessons Learnt from Investing in Essential Services

China

Sichuan Expressway Company Limited is primarily engaged in the investment, construction, operation, and management of highway infrastructure projects in the People's Republic of China, particularly in Sichuan Province. The company also diversifies into related businesses such as new energy technologies, transportation services, and logistics. It was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Chengdu, People's Republic of China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Sichuan Expressway (107 HK)

China Toll Road Sector: Higher for Longer......Yields

China's toll road sector has performed solidly since 2022, but is still offering attractive yields and healthy profit. Jiangsu Expressway stands...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 4th): China South Air, Remegen, China Telecom, Muyuan Foods, Conch Cement

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China South Air, Remegen, China Telecom, Muyuan Foods, Conch...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Lessons Learnt from Investing in Essential Services

The podcast explores the benefits of investing in infrastructure assets for reliable long-term cash flows and opportunities for growth.

MAGELLAN - IN THE KNOW

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Toll Road Sector: Higher for Longer......Yields

​China's toll road sector has performed solidly since 2022, but is still offering attractive yields and healthy profit. Jiangsu Expressway stands...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

​Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 9th): Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Innocare, Ganfenglithium, China East Air, Yofc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 4th): China South Air, Remegen, China Telecom, Muyuan Foods, Conch Cement

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China South Air, Remegen, China Telecom, Muyuan Foods, Conch...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Lessons Learnt from Investing in Essential Services

The podcast explores the benefits of investing in infrastructure assets for reliable long-term cash flows and opportunities for growth.

MAGELLAN - IN THE KNOW

China's toll road sector has performed solidly since 2022, but is still offering attractive yields and healthy profit. Jiangsu Expressway stands...

Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...