Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Activist investors, confusing market price with intrinsic value, have shot themselves in the foot by offering terrible advice to Keisei Railway’s management. </li>
<li>When Keisei followed advice from the activist, selling just 1% of the shares of Oriental Land, Keisei's share price collapsed, proving market price has nothing to do with intrinsic value. </li>
<li>Keisei’s revenue growth and return on investment are stronger than most of its peers, and the crash in its stock price caused by activists might create an opportunity for others.</li>
</ul>


Activist investors, confusing market price with intrinsic value, have shot themselves in the foot by offering terrible advice to Keisei Railway’s management. 
When Keisei followed advice from the activist, selling just 1% of the shares of Oriental Land, Keisei's share price collapsed, proving market price has nothing to do with intrinsic value. 
Keisei’s revenue growth and return on investment are stronger than most of its peers, and the crash in its stock price caused by activists might create an opportunity for others.


Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Rebalancing Candidates ADD: Kokusai Electric Corp (6525.T): High Liquidity Group TOP 75, BayCurrent Inc (6532.T), Shift Inc (3697.T)</li>
<li>Rebalancing Candidates DEL: Mitsubishi Logistics Corp. (9301.T), Okuma Corp. (6103.T), Tokuyama Corp (4043.T)</li>
<li>Capping Ratio: Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983.T)’s Price Adjustment Factor from 2.7 to 2.4</li>
</ul>


Rebalancing Candidates ADD: Kokusai Electric Corp (6525.T): High Liquidity Group TOP 75, BayCurrent Inc (6532.T), Shift Inc (3697.T)
Rebalancing Candidates DEL: Mitsubishi Logistics Corp. (9301.T), Okuma Corp. (6103.T), Tokuyama Corp (4043.T)
Capping Ratio: Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983.T)’s Price Adjustment Factor from 2.7 to 2.4


Nikkei 225 Stock Average Rebalancing – January 2025

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a> IPO is one of the largest IPOs of recent years, well-flagged, and it is hot hot hot!  A super stable, well-known, well-respected, service provider.</li>
<li>There are numerous attractions but I expect people have not thought too deeply about the demand and supply dynamics of different holder types. It's worth thinking about. </li>
<li>This was priced "cheap" but everyone knows that so there may be flippers. This is probably more Japan Post Bank than Japan Post Insurance.</li>
</ul>


The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO is one of the largest IPOs of recent years, well-flagged, and it is hot hot hot!  A super stable, well-known, well-respected, service provider.
There are numerous attractions but I expect people have not thought too deeply about the demand and supply dynamics of different holder types. It's worth thinking about. 
This was priced "cheap" but everyone knows that so there may be flippers. This is probably more Japan Post Bank than Japan Post Insurance.


The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket - What To Look For

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a> priced its IPO at JPY1,200 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.3 billion. The shares will start trading on 23 October.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tokyo-metro-9023-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:160168" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tokyo-metro-9023-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:160399" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tokyo-metro-9023-jp-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161071" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The peers have modestly derated since the prospectus was released on 20 September. The IPO price remains attractive, particularly relating to the implied dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) priced its IPO at JPY1,200 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.3 billion. The shares will start trading on 23 October.
We previously discussed the IPO in Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: The Bear Case and Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights.
The peers have modestly derated since the prospectus was released on 20 September. The IPO price remains attractive, particularly relating to the implied dividend yield.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a>, a mass transit operator, is seeking to raise up to US$2.3 billion. Pricing is on 15 October, and the listing is on 23 October.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tokyo-metro-9023-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:160168" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tokyo-metro-9023-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:160399" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Tokyo Metro is attractively valued at the IPO price compared to peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Metro (9023 JP), a mass transit operator, is seeking to raise up to US$2.3 billion. Pricing is on 15 October, and the listing is on 23 October.
We previously discussed the IPO in Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: The Bull Case and Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: The Bear Case.
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Tokyo Metro is attractively valued at the IPO price compared to peer multiples.


Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Japan

TOBU RAILWAY CO., LTD. mainly provides passenger rail and bus transportation services in the Kanto area.  The Company also operates a variety of real estate businesses which construct and sell apartment buildings and single houses, and lease buildings.  Tobu Railway operates an array of businesses such as distributors, amusement parks, and hotels.

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Tobu Railway (9001 JP)

Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US

Activist investors' bad advice to Keisei Railway led to a stock price collapse, highlighting the disconnect between market price and intrinsic...

Michael Allen

Nikkei 225 Stock Average Rebalancing – January 2025

As per the “Periodic Review” conducted twice a year by Nikkei Inc. (Nikkei), the constituents of Nikkei 225 will be reviewed and changed at the end...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket - What To Look For

The Tokyo Metro IPO is 23 October. There is substantial index buying demand at month end of both Oct/Nov, then a lull. Flippers will flip, the...

Travis Lundy

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The shares will start trading on 23 October. The IPO price remains attractive, particularly relating to the implied dividend yield.

Arun George

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Tokyo Metro had set its IPO price range at JPY1,100-1,200, compared to the IPO reference price of JPY1,100. The upper end of the price range...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Keisei Railway (9009) Gets Bad Advice from Activists, Which Is Good for The Rest of US

​Activist investors' bad advice to Keisei Railway led to a stock price collapse, highlighting the disconnect between market price and intrinsic...

Michael Allen

Nikkei 225 Stock Average Rebalancing – January 2025

As per the “Periodic Review” conducted twice a year by Nikkei Inc. (Nikkei), the constituents of Nikkei 225 will be reviewed and changed at the end...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket - What To Look For

The Tokyo Metro IPO is 23 October. There is substantial index buying demand at month end of both Oct/Nov, then a lull. Flippers will flip, the...

Travis Lundy

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The shares will start trading on 23 October. The IPO price remains attractive, particularly relating to the implied dividend yield.

Arun George

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Tokyo Metro had set its IPO price range at JPY1,100-1,200, compared to the IPO reference price of JPY1,100. The upper end of the price range...

Arun George

Activist investors' bad advice to Keisei Railway led to a stock price collapse, highlighting the disconnect between market price and intrinsic...