Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs</li>
<li>This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services</li>
<li>We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  </li>
</ul>


This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs
This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services
We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  


DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Marvell had a pretty solid result and guided to sequentially better revenue.</li><li>The market didn’t like this, but I thought, looking through the result, I liked this result quite a bit. Shares did not.</li><li>Marvell Technology reports Q1 EPS $0.24 ex-items vs FactSet $0.24.</li></ul>

Marvell had a pretty solid result and guided to sequentially better revenue.The market didn’t like this, but I thought, looking through the result, I liked this result quite a bit. Shares did not.Marvell Technology reports Q1 EPS $0.24 ex-items vs FactSet $0.24.

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

<ul><li>Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings.</li><li>Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia.</li><li>I think it’s pretty straightforward that Nvidia has revenue beats for the foreseeable future.</li></ul>

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings.Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia.I think it’s pretty straightforward that Nvidia has revenue beats for the foreseeable future.

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul><li>The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li><li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li><li>The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the open of 3rd December 2025 and announced after the close of 5th December 2025.</li></ul>

The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the open of 3rd December 2025 and announced after the close of 5th December 2025.

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Last Minute Surprise in The Leading Names

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

Nicolas Baratte

Marvell Earnings

Results look fine, the market is not digging it. I think a closer look makes sense. The market didn’t like this, but I thought, looking through the...

Fabricated Knowledge

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings. Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia. I...

Fabricated Knowledge

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Last Minute Surprise in The Leading Names

SP500 rankings will be decided at today's open and announced on 5 December after the close. We see $100bn to trade across the SP500 complex. Kalshi...

Anjana Amarasuriya

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DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

​Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

Nicolas Baratte

Marvell Earnings

Results look fine, the market is not digging it. I think a closer look makes sense. The market didn’t like this, but I thought, looking through the...

Fabricated Knowledge

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings. Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia. I...

Fabricated Knowledge

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: Last Minute Surprise in The Leading Names

SP500 rankings will be decided at today's open and announced on 5 December after the close. We see $100bn to trade across the SP500 complex. Kalshi...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...