Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors</li>
<li>After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.</li>
<li>We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors
After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.
We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.


Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>What inning is AI in?</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-rise-and" target="_blank" rel="noopener">history is a guide</a>, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing.</li>
<li>Here’s my humble attempt at estimating AI penetration and my thoughts on the run-rate business of AI models and industry structure.</li>
</ul>


What inning is AI in?
If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing.
Here’s my humble attempt at estimating AI penetration and my thoughts on the run-rate business of AI models and industry structure.


AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.</li><li>BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.</li><li>BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.</li></ul>

First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Multiple industry checks now indicate that Apple is preparing to source its entry-level M-series processors from Intel’s 18A node with EMIB-T packaging as early as 2027.</li>
<li>The revenue impact will be modest, but the signalling value is enormous: Apple does not hand out advanced-node access unless the foundry roadmap is de-risked.</li>
<li>This development aligns directly with the structural shifts we’ve been highlighting; Intel’s packaging-first wedge, foundry credibility, and TSMC’s overcapacity creating space for second-sourcing.</li>
</ul>


Multiple industry checks now indicate that Apple is preparing to source its entry-level M-series processors from Intel’s 18A node with EMIB-T packaging as early as 2027.
The revenue impact will be modest, but the signalling value is enormous: Apple does not hand out advanced-node access unless the foundry roadmap is de-risked.
This development aligns directly with the structural shifts we’ve been highlighting; Intel’s packaging-first wedge, foundry credibility, and TSMC’s overcapacity creating space for second-sourcing.


Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with high AIexposures, with key suppliers posting stellar revenue growth and material margin expansion.</li><li>We expect this outperformance to persist through 2026 and beyond, underpinned by an unabated AI infrastructure investment cycle and a sustained mix shift to higher-value solutions.</li><li>We reiterate the sector as one of our top picks. Reiterate our BUY rating on Innolight (300308 CH, BUY, TP: RMB591.00), the 2024 global optical transceiver market leader, positioned to benefit from surging overseas AI capex and 1.6T demand.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with high AIexposures, with key suppliers posting stellar revenue growth and material margin expansion.We expect this outperformance to persist through 2026 and beyond, underpinned by an unabated AI infrastructure investment cycle and a sustained mix shift to higher-value solutions.We reiterate the sector as one of our top picks. Reiterate our BUY rating on Innolight (300308 CH, BUY, TP: RMB591.00), the 2024 global optical transceiver market leader, positioned to benefit from surging overseas AI capex and 1.6T demand.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Optical transceivers – sustained AI-driven outperformance ahead

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

What inning is AI in? If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing...

Fabricated Knowledge

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

A news filled week in semiconductors. Let's discuss. First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export...

Fabricated Knowledge

Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Mint Finance

Semiconductors - Optical transceivers – sustained AI-driven outperformance ahead

2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with high AIexposures, with key suppliers posting stellar revenue growth and...

CMB International

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Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

What inning is AI in? If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing...

Fabricated Knowledge

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

A news filled week in semiconductors. Let's discuss. First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export...

Fabricated Knowledge

Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

​Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Mint Finance

Semiconductors - Optical transceivers – sustained AI-driven outperformance ahead

2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with high AIexposures, with key suppliers posting stellar revenue growth and...

CMB International

Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...