AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

<ul>
<li>SOXX rose 1.3% as AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom rallied on China access and upgrades, while Micron and ASML lagged on memory and High-NA concerns.</li>
<li>ASML warned on 2026 as TSMC and Samsung delay High-NA EUV; newer designs instead boost demand for etch players over lithography.</li>
<li>$136M ETF outflows and a 25% drop in options activity show gains remain narrow, with investors waiting on tariffs and real tech catalysts.</li>
</ul>


SOXX rose 1.3% as AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom rallied on China access and upgrades, while Micron and ASML lagged on memory and High-NA concerns.
ASML warned on 2026 as TSMC and Samsung delay High-NA EUV; newer designs instead boost demand for etch players over lithography.
$136M ETF outflows and a 25% drop in options activity show gains remain narrow, with investors waiting on tariffs and real tech catalysts.


[Wafer Watch] Top Chipmakers Drive the Index, Broader Market Stalls

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul>
<li>Marvell's technical presentations were longer than expected but well-received, showcasing their differentiation from Broadcom</li>
<li>Marvell has a deep pool of technical talent and a framework for explaining their innovations effectively</li>
<li>Challenges with the custom business model being lumpy and heavily cyclical, with uncertainties in revenue pipelines and scaling projects with hyperscalers</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Marvell's technical presentations were longer than expected but well-received, showcasing their differentiation from Broadcom
Marvell has a deep pool of technical talent and a framework for explaining their innovations effectively
Challenges with the custom business model being lumpy and heavily cyclical, with uncertainties in revenue pipelines and scaling projects with hyperscalers

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 123: Marvell ASIC TAM, ASIC Challenges Remain, More Semi 2.0

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Qualcomm acquired Alphawave, a UK firm that specializes in chip design IP, especially silicon photonics and chiplets. </li>
<li>AMD acquired 3 firms. Untether AI, an AI edge / inference chip designer. Brium, an AI software and compiler firm. Enosemi, a silicon photonics and co-packaged optics firm. </li>
<li>4 acquisitions in 2 weeks. AMD and Qualcomm are putting their money where their mouth is: the future is AI. This also illustrates how far ahead Nvidia is.</li>
</ul>


Qualcomm acquired Alphawave, a UK firm that specializes in chip design IP, especially silicon photonics and chiplets. 
AMD acquired 3 firms. Untether AI, an AI edge / inference chip designer. Brium, an AI software and compiler firm. Enosemi, a silicon photonics and co-packaged optics firm. 
4 acquisitions in 2 weeks. AMD and Qualcomm are putting their money where their mouth is: the future is AI. This also illustrates how far ahead Nvidia is.


<ul>
<li>2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.</li>
<li>Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.</li>
<li>Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.</li>
</ul>


2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.
Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.
Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.


AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

[Wafer Watch] Top Chipmakers Drive the Index, Broader Market Stalls

AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom lead the gains, but falling flows, cautious options bets, and structural shifts in chipmaking leave the rally on...

Mint Finance

EP 123: Marvell ASIC TAM, ASIC Challenges Remain, More Semi 2.0

Marvell's detailed presentations showcased their technical advancements, revenue growth predictions, and challenges in the custom business with...

The Circuit

Semiconductor Shopping Season Is Now

AMD and Qualcomm make strategic acquisitions in chip design and AI technology, highlighting their focus on the future of AI and competition with...

Nicolas Baratte

AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Nicolas Baratte

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Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

[Wafer Watch] Top Chipmakers Drive the Index, Broader Market Stalls

AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom lead the gains, but falling flows, cautious options bets, and structural shifts in chipmaking leave the rally on...

Mint Finance

EP 123: Marvell ASIC TAM, ASIC Challenges Remain, More Semi 2.0

Marvell's detailed presentations showcased their technical advancements, revenue growth predictions, and challenges in the custom business with...

The Circuit

Semiconductor Shopping Season Is Now

​AMD and Qualcomm make strategic acquisitions in chip design and AI technology, highlighting their focus on the future of AI and competition with...

Nicolas Baratte

AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

​AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Nicolas Baratte

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

AMD and Qualcomm make strategic acquisitions in chip design and AI technology, highlighting their focus on the future of AI and competition with...

AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...