Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  </li>
<li>We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>.  </li>
<li>The stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  </li>
</ul>


Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  
We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).  
The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM</li>
<li>TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.</li>
<li>2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM
TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.
2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility


Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>The Mobile World Congress had a record attendance of 110,000 people this year, but some are questioning its relevance in the semiconductor industry</li><li>Major chip companies had reduced presence at the event, signaling a shift away from semiconductor topics towards other emerging technologies like AI and data centers</li><li>The telecom industry, which the event primarily caters to, is facing challenges with stagnant growth and operators are hesitant to upgrade to 6G, leading to a downbeat atmosphere for equipment suppliers at the event.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The Mobile World Congress had a record attendance of 110,000 people this year, but some are questioning its relevance in the semiconductor industryMajor chip companies had reduced presence at the event, signaling a shift away from semiconductor topics towards other emerging technologies like AI and data centersThe telecom industry, which the event primarily caters to, is facing challenges with stagnant growth and operators are hesitant to upgrade to 6G, leading to a downbeat atmosphere for equipment suppliers at the event.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 108: MWC Observations, MRVL and AVGO Earnings, Apple's new Devices

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC's Latest Global Expansion Plans, Visualized; Taiwan Manufacturing Will Continue to Remain One Generation Ahead of Overseas</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Invest Further in US up to 100bn; Intel Foundry Service Gets Direct Clients.</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News </li>
</ul>


TSMC's Latest Global Expansion Plans, Visualized; Taiwan Manufacturing Will Continue to Remain One Generation Ahead of Overseas
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Invest Further in US up to 100bn; Intel Foundry Service Gets Direct Clients.
Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech Soared in February on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News</li>
<li>Nanya’s Custom HBM Strategy &amp; the Positive DRAM Market Outlook</li>
<li>Memory Monitor Universe: SK Hynix &amp; Micron Still Have Strong FY2025E Expected Growth; Nanya Tech Still Negative</li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech Soared in February on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News
Nanya’s Custom HBM Strategy &amp; the Positive DRAM Market Outlook
Memory Monitor Universe: SK Hynix &amp; Micron Still Have Strong FY2025E Expected Growth; Nanya Tech Still Negative


Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

Episode 108: MWC Observations, MRVL and AVGO Earnings, Apple's new Devices

Overall, the speaker reflects on the changing landscape of Mobile World Congress, with a decreased emphasis on semiconductors and a growing focus...

The Circuit

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory

TSMC plans additional $100bn for the U.S., but Taiwan will remain one generation ahead of overseas manufacturing; Nanya targeting new custom High...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News

Nanya Tech sees growth in February from DRAM recovery and custom HBM strategy, but still lags behind SK Hynix and Micron in expected growth for 2025.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

​US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

Episode 108: MWC Observations, MRVL and AVGO Earnings, Apple's new Devices

Overall, the speaker reflects on the changing landscape of Mobile World Congress, with a decreased emphasis on semiconductors and a growing focus...

The Circuit

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory

​TSMC plans additional $100bn for the U.S., but Taiwan will remain one generation ahead of overseas manufacturing; Nanya targeting new custom High...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News

​Nanya Tech sees growth in February from DRAM recovery and custom HBM strategy, but still lags behind SK Hynix and Micron in expected growth for 2025.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

TSMC plans additional $100bn for the U.S., but Taiwan will remain one generation ahead of overseas manufacturing; Nanya targeting new custom High...

Nanya Tech sees growth in February from DRAM recovery and custom HBM strategy, but still lags behind SK Hynix and Micron in expected growth for 2025.