Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's Ministry of Tourism &amp; Culture reported mediocre holiday travel &amp; spending activity</li>
<li>Separately, Xinhua also reported underwhelming numbers from Dragon Boat Festival period</li>
<li>Weak travel numbers may indicate Chinese consumers remain uneasy about near-term outlook</li>
</ul>


China's Ministry of Tourism &amp; Culture reported mediocre holiday travel &amp; spending activity
Separately, Xinhua also reported underwhelming numbers from Dragon Boat Festival period
Weak travel numbers may indicate Chinese consumers remain uneasy about near-term outlook


Weak Spending over China's Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Period Suggests Tourists Remain Frugal

<ul>
<li>As in Q424, a sharp increase in OpEx led to margin compression at Trip.com in Q125</li>
<li>Trip.com's revenue growth in Q125 slowed vs Q424, but platform probably gained share</li>
<li>Within China's tourism segment, we still think the airlines can outperform Trip.com</li>
</ul>


As in Q424, a sharp increase in OpEx led to margin compression at Trip.com in Q125
Trip.com's revenue growth in Q125 slowed vs Q424, but platform probably gained share
Within China's tourism segment, we still think the airlines can outperform Trip.com


Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in China in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24.</li>
<li>Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew by 23%.</li>
<li>We believe operating margin will be stable, as the growth of sales and market expense has been slowing down.</li>
</ul>


Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in China in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24.
Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew by 23%.
We believe operating margin will be stable, as the growth of sales and market expense has been slowing down.


Trip.com (TCOM): 1Q25, Hotel Booking Revenue Up by 23%

<ul>
<li>China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region</li>
<li>In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)</li>
<li>As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth</li>
</ul>


China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region
In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)
As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth


China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> approved AGM agenda items late last week to enable the two Capitalisation Issues and Naspers' Share Consolidation to move forward.</li>
<li>What Will Happen: Prosus will issue new N shares to its shareholders and Naspers will reject them. Naspers will issue new shares to its shareholders, and Prosus will reject them.</li>
<li>Naspers will own ~42.9% of Prosus, Prosus will own 0.02% of Naspers. Sales of Tencent shares will continue. Share Buybacks too. But the ouroboros will have spit out its tail. </li>
</ul>


Shareholders of Prosus NV (PRX NA) and Naspers (NPN SJ) approved AGM agenda items late last week to enable the two Capitalisation Issues and Naspers' Share Consolidation to move forward.
What Will Happen: Prosus will issue new N shares to its shareholders and Naspers will reject them. Naspers will issue new shares to its shareholders, and Prosus will reject them.
Naspers will own ~42.9% of Prosus, Prosus will own 0.02% of Naspers. Sales of Tencent shares will continue. Share Buybacks too. But the ouroboros will have spit out its tail. 


Prosus/Naspers - The ουροβóρος Is Dead! Long Live The Ouroboros!

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Weak Spending over China's Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Period Suggests Tourists Remain Frugal

Headline travel activity numbers from China's recent Dragon Boat Festival suggest modest demand growth and a Chinese consumer keeping a tight grip...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

China's leading travel platform Trip.com reported an unimpressive set of results earlier this week, as a sharp rise in OpEx led to margin compression.

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM): 1Q25, Hotel Booking Revenue Up by 23%

Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24. Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew...

Ming Lu

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

Prosus/Naspers - The ουροβóρος Is Dead! Long Live The Ouroboros!

The Prosus/Naspers Ouroboros is Dead. Long live the Prosus/Naspers Ouroboros. Prosus is an Accretion Engine. Know it. Use it.

Travis Lundy

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