Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism demand, which could offset a weaker performance in the F&amp;B business where same-store-sales growth (SSSG) has not improved.</li><li>We expect MINT to show the most notable growth both YoY and QoQ, benefiting from the high tourism season, as tourist numbers in Europe typically peak in 3Q24E, alongside major events such as the Euro Cup and the Olympics in Paris.</li><li>CENTEL’s growth is expected to follow MINT’s trend, with potential YoY growth but a QoQ decline due to pre-operating expenses for its two new hotels in the Maldives, estimated at around Bt80mn in 3Q24E out of a total of Bt250mn. </li></ul>

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism demand, which could offset a weaker performance in the F&amp;B business where same-store-sales growth (SSSG) has not improved.We expect MINT to show the most notable growth both YoY and QoQ, benefiting from the high tourism season, as tourist numbers in Europe typically peak in 3Q24E, alongside major events such as the Euro Cup and the Olympics in Paris.CENTEL’s growth is expected to follow MINT’s trend, with potential YoY growth but a QoQ decline due to pre-operating expenses for its two new hotels in the Maldives, estimated at around Bt80mn in 3Q24E out of a total of Bt250mn. 

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>Currently, we see 4 expected ADDs/DELs but the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings starts on 1st September and only after that the rankings will become stable. </li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
Currently, we see 4 expected ADDs/DELs but the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings starts on 1st September and only after that the rankings will become stable. 


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 4 Changes Possible; Reference Period Starts on 1st Sep

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating but have revised down our 12M FV to Bt35.75 (from Bt40.50 previously) due to a downward revision of our 2024 earnings forecast and an increase in the required return to 2.6% (from 2.0% previously).</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price has become less attractive, with narrower upside of +9%.</li><li>However, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with an expected CAGR of +14%, while the tactical downside risk is very limited.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating but have revised down our 12M FV to Bt35.75 (from Bt40.50 previously) due to a downward revision of our 2024 earnings forecast and an increase in the required return to 2.6% (from 2.0% previously).The valuation metrics suggest that the share price has become less attractive, with narrower upside of +9%.However, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with an expected CAGR of +14%, while the tactical downside risk is very limited.

Central Plaza Hotel - Lowered Earnings Forecast to Reflect Higher-Than- Expected Expenses

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a>, we see four potential index changes.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.</li>
</ul>


Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of SET 50 Index, we see four potential index changes.
There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>At present, we see 3 ADDs and 3 DELs but since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
At present, we see 3 ADDs and 3 DELs but since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; INTUCH-GULF Merger Should Be Monitored

Thailand

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited owns and manages hotels and quick service restaurants. The Company operates its hotels under the banner of Centara Hotels & Resorts and franchises western and Japanese quick service restaurants.

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Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB)

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 4 Changes Possible; Reference Period Starts on 1st Sep

We currently see SAWAD, COM7, BANPU, and TCAP as expected ADDs and EA, TIDLOR, CENTEL, and BCP as expected DELs. A couple of these names have 3-4x...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Central Plaza Hotel - Lowered Earnings Forecast to Reflect Higher-Than- Expected Expenses

We maintain an Outperform rating but have revised down our 12M FV to Bt35.75 (from Bt40.50 previously) due to a downward revision of our 2024...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

There are 4 potential changes for the SET50 in Dec. There are some other stocks that could make the cut. The adds have outperformed the deletes....

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; INTUCH-GULF Merger Should Be Monitored

Although there are only three changes expected right now, there are multiple names just outside the border requiring small relative price changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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