Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.</li>
<li>The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? </li>
<li>And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE's similar critical assets? </li>
</ul>


There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? 
And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE's similar critical assets? 


Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC's Takeover

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.</li>
<li>The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. </li>
<li>The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Olam Group (OLG SP) has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.
The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. 
The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.


Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

<ul>
<li>Back on the 3 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> and Malteries Soufflet entered into a binding agreement of A$5.00/share, by way of a Scheme. </li>
<li>The Scheme Booklet has now been lodged with ASIC. UMG shareholders vote on the transaction on the 12 October, with implementation on the 15 November.</li>
<li>The Offer remains subject to FIRB and other regulatory approvals. Malteries Soufflet and UMG are the second and fourth-largest maltsters in the world.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 3 July, United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) and Malteries Soufflet entered into a binding agreement of A$5.00/share, by way of a Scheme. 
The Scheme Booklet has now been lodged with ASIC. UMG shareholders vote on the transaction on the 12 October, with implementation on the 15 November.
The Offer remains subject to FIRB and other regulatory approvals. Malteries Soufflet and UMG are the second and fourth-largest maltsters in the world.


United Malt: Shareholder Vote On 12th Oct

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/malteries-soufflet-signs-binding-deal-to-buy-united-malt-at-5-a-share-20230702-p5dl6n" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> has received a binding offer from Malteries Soufflet at A$5.00 per share, a 13.6% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The high spread reflected the risk of a no-deal or price cut due to the weak 1HFY23 results and lack of updates since the end of the 10-week due diligence.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on shareholders and FIRB approval. Shareholders will be supportive and breathe a sigh of relief at receiving a binding offer with unchanged terms. </li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) has received a binding offer from Malteries Soufflet at A$5.00 per share, a 13.6% premium to the last close price.
The high spread reflected the risk of a no-deal or price cut due to the weak 1HFY23 results and lack of updates since the end of the 10-week due diligence.
The offer is conditional on shareholders and FIRB approval. Shareholders will be supportive and breathe a sigh of relief at receiving a binding offer with unchanged terms. 


United Malt (UMG AU): Malteries Soufflet’s Binding Offer

<ul>
<li>There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle (ALB US)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> tilt; Malteries Soufflet's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt (UMG AU)</a> Offer; Bain Capital's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia (EHE AU)</a> Offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Albemarle (ALB US)'s Liontown Resources (LTR AU) tilt; Malteries Soufflet's United Malt (UMG AU) Offer; Bain Capital's Estia (EHE AU) Offer. 
Key updates took place for Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), andGolden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

Australia

GrainCorp Limited operates as a food ingredients and agribusiness company. The Company processes and distributes wheat, barley, and canola, as well as offers a range of malt products and service to brewers and distillers. GrainCorp also supplies and refines edible oils. GrainCorp serves customers worldwide.*Dummy ticker for index membership mapping

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Graincorp Ltd A (GNC AU)

Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC's Takeover

If Shell couldn't be trusted with Woodside's assets to put Oz first, what has changed such that ADNOC is trusted? What do UAE bring to the table?...

David Blennerhassett

Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.

Arun George

United Malt: Shareholder Vote On 12th Oct

This is a full price - valuation-wise and optically. Key substantial shareholders have been selling. FIRB may take a closer look. But it's not...

David Blennerhassett

United Malt (UMG AU): Malteries Soufflet’s Binding Offer

AFR reports that Malteries Soufflet has lobbed a binding offer at A$5.00. Shareholders will be supportive and sigh relief at receiving a binding...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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