Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD’s resurgence against a dominant Intel saw the company grow annual revenues &gt;4x between 2017 and 2022</li>
<li>FY 2023 revenue is likely to be down roughly $1 billion or ~4% YoY.</li>
<li>We expect a combination of renewed Data Center market share growth plus a grand entrance into the AI acceleration segment will restart the party all over again in 2024. </li>
</ul>


AMD’s resurgence against a dominant Intel saw the company grow annual revenues &gt;4x between 2017 and 2022
FY 2023 revenue is likely to be down roughly $1 billion or ~4% YoY.
We expect a combination of renewed Data Center market share growth plus a grand entrance into the AI acceleration segment will restart the party all over again in 2024. 


AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?

<p>With critically acclaimed launches of next-generation consumer and server processors, growing GPU sales to the data center, steadily increasing market share, impressive supercomputing design wins, a strategically significant GPU partnership with Samsung, even tacit acknowledgement of competitive progress by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices</a> has arguably just experienced the most exciting three months in the company's 50-year history. Yet, this same period saw the company's stock fall by almost 18% on the back of a weaker than expected full year outlook coupled with broader market uncertainties related to trade wars and an increasingly gloomy global economic growth outlook. Despite this setback, we remain convinced in our view that the best is yet to come for AMD. Here's why. </p>

With critically acclaimed launches of next-generation consumer and server processors, growing GPU sales to the data center, steadily increasing market share, impressive supercomputing design wins, a strategically significant GPU partnership with Samsung, even tacit acknowledgement of competitive progress by Intel,  Advanced Micro Devices has arguably just experienced the most exciting three months in the company's 50-year history. Yet, this same period saw the company's stock fall by almost 18% on the back of a weaker than expected full year outlook coupled with broader market uncertainties related to trade wars and an increasingly gloomy global economic growth outlook. Despite this setback, we remain convinced in our view that the best is yet to come for AMD. Here's why. 

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Advanced Micro Devices managed to surpass analysts' revenue and earnings expectations, achieving notable milestones in AI hardware and software development and reinforcing their momentum in AI solutions.</li><li>With over 50 notebook designs powered by Ryzen AI in the market, collaboration with Microsoft on the next Windows generation, and strong growth in PC and Data Center segments, the quarter yielded a 4% YoY and 8% sequential revenue increase to $5.8 billion.</li><li>In the Data Center segment, AMD secured commitments from large hyperscale customers for Instinct MI300 accelerators, leading to flat YoY but a 21% sequential revenue increase to $1.6 billion.</li></ul>

Advanced Micro Devices managed to surpass analysts' revenue and earnings expectations, achieving notable milestones in AI hardware and software development and reinforcing their momentum in AI solutions.With over 50 notebook designs powered by Ryzen AI in the market, collaboration with Microsoft on the next Windows generation, and strong growth in PC and Data Center segments, the quarter yielded a 4% YoY and 8% sequential revenue increase to $5.8 billion.In the Data Center segment, AMD secured commitments from large hyperscale customers for Instinct MI300 accelerators, leading to flat YoY but a 21% sequential revenue increase to $1.6 billion.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): The Nod.ai Acquisition A Possible Game Changer? - Major Drivers

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.</li>
<li>We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.</li>
<li>1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.
We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.
1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?


Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?

Despite FY23 revenues on track to decline ~4% YoY, we expect a combination of renewed DC market share growth + a grand entrance to the AI...

William Keating

AMD.The Best Is Yet To Come!

We've been writing about AMD's resurgence for > 5 years. This article from mid 2019 chronicles a critical time in AMD's comeback. Despite having...

William Keating

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): The Nod.ai Acquisition A Possible Game Changer? - Major Drivers

Advanced Micro Devices managed to surpass analysts' revenue and earnings expectations, achieving notable milestones in AI hardware and software...

Baptista Research

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point? We see this lead time cut news short term positive but long term negative to AI GPU supply chain...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)