AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.</li>
<li>Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.</li>
<li>If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.</li>
</ul>


China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.
Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.
If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.


Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest impact passive sell. </li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest impact passive sell. 
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) at the close on Friday.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>After a challenging last decade, Broadcom is back on track with positive earnings results and a new customer for their custom ASIC business</li><li>CEO Hawk Tan's confident and clear communication during the earnings call led to a significant stock price increase</li><li>AMD's stock was down as investors may view Broadcom's success as a potential threat to their position as a second source alternative to Nvidia in the market</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

After a challenging last decade, Broadcom is back on track with positive earnings results and a new customer for their custom ASIC businessCEO Hawk Tan's confident and clear communication during the earnings call led to a significant stock price increaseAMD's stock was down as investors may view Broadcom's success as a potential threat to their position as a second source alternative to Nvidia in the marketThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 133: Broadcom Earnings, More on ASICS vs. GPUs, Google Selling TPUs?

Weekly podcast series by SemiWiki.com, SemiWiki.com

SemiWiki.com

Weekly podcast series by SemiWiki.com

Semiconductor Insiders: A weekly podcast series by SemiWiki.com, the open forum for semiconductor professionals.

<ul><li>AI is transforming data centers and increasing energy consumption</li><li>Next generation AI data centers rely on high performance GPUs and specialized accelerators, requiring advanced power distribution and cooling solutions to maintain reliability and sustainability</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

AI is transforming data centers and increasing energy consumptionNext generation AI data centers rely on high performance GPUs and specialized accelerators, requiring advanced power distribution and cooling solutions to maintain reliability and sustainabilityThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Podcast EP306: The Challenges of Advanced AI Data Center Design with Josue Navarro

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> has not given up on Intel Foundry Service (IFS), even though it currently lacks any sizable clients.</li>
<li>We are puzzled as to why Intel former CEO Pat Gelsinger insisted on entering the foundry market, which has so far weakened Intel’s financials without generating meaningful returns.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> CEO has publicly stated that Intel’s manufacturing technology is still not competitive.</li>
</ul>



Intel Corp (INTC US) has not given up on Intel Foundry Service (IFS), even though it currently lacks any sizable clients.
We are puzzled as to why Intel former CEO Pat Gelsinger insisted on entering the foundry market, which has so far weakened Intel’s financials without generating meaningful returns.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) CEO has publicly stated that Intel’s manufacturing technology is still not competitive.


Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Mint Finance

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

EP 133: Broadcom Earnings, More on ASICS vs. GPUs, Google Selling TPUs?

Broadcom had a strong quarter, beating revenue and EPS expectations, with CEO Hawk Tan's announcement of a new customer causing the stock to rise...

The Circuit

Podcast EP306: The Challenges of Advanced AI Data Center Design with Josue Navarro

Transitioning from Intel to a customer-facing role at Microchip, AI is driving increased energy consumption in data centers, necessitating advanced...

SemiWiki.com

Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

Intel has so far weakened its IFS financials without generating meaningful returns, while Qualcomm has publicly stated Intel’s manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

​China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Mint Finance

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

EP 133: Broadcom Earnings, More on ASICS vs. GPUs, Google Selling TPUs?

Broadcom had a strong quarter, beating revenue and EPS expectations, with CEO Hawk Tan's announcement of a new customer causing the stock to rise...

The Circuit

Podcast EP306: The Challenges of Advanced AI Data Center Design with Josue Navarro

Transitioning from Intel to a customer-facing role at Microchip, AI is driving increased energy consumption in data centers, necessitating advanced...

SemiWiki.com

Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

Intel has so far weakened its IFS financials without generating meaningful returns, while Qualcomm has publicly stated Intel’s manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...