Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Rong Viet Securities

Rong Viet Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

Vietnam Dairy Products JSC / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We observe that VNM’s business performance growth has stagnated since Covid-19, with its market share declining amid a gloomy domestic dairy market.</li><li>Efforts to revamp product portfolios and increase discounts, implying the sacrifice of profit margins, have yet to brighter results</li><li>The core market (domestic dairy) has entered a saturation phase, with annual sales growth of 1-3% (volume expansion is limited due to a sharp decline in birth rates, capped milk spending, and growth mainly driven by pricing relative to a trend toward premium, health-focused consumption)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We observe that VNM’s business performance growth has stagnated since Covid-19, with its market share declining amid a gloomy domestic dairy market.Efforts to revamp product portfolios and increase discounts, implying the sacrifice of profit margins, have yet to brighter resultsThe core market (domestic dairy) has entered a saturation phase, with annual sales growth of 1-3% (volume expansion is limited due to a sharp decline in birth rates, capped milk spending, and growth mainly driven by pricing relative to a trend toward premium, health-focused consumption)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

VNM - The Big Boat Strives to Conquer Mighty Waves

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

Leading full-service brokerage firm in Vietnam. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Viet Nam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN) is the leading dairy corporation in Vietnam,boastingthe largest domestic market share in the liquid milk segment and the formula milk segment.</li><li>VNM currently operates 15 farms in the Indochina region and is a major buyer of fresh milk from farmers, with nearly 140,000 cows.</li><li>VNM also boasts a distribution system with over 200,000 points of sale throughout the country, providing it with a solid competitive advantage over peers.</li></ul><div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Viet Nam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN) is the leading dairy corporation in Vietnam,boastingthe largest domestic market share in the liquid milk segment and the formula milk segment.VNM currently operates 15 farms in the Indochina region and is a major buyer of fresh milk from farmers, with nearly 140,000 cows.VNM also boasts a distribution system with over 200,000 points of sale throughout the country, providing it with a solid competitive advantage over peers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Viet Nam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN) - Overseas Revenue Fuels Growth

<ul>
<li>On the 27th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> announced an Offer for 88.04%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a>, after MAND concurrently announced the partial sale of OCB to Alibaba.  </li>
<li>MAND will pocket US$925mn from the sale. The privatisation will set Matheson back ~US$500mn. Alibaba is ostensibly funding MAND's privatisation. And then some.  </li>
<li>Last week Matheson announced it will undertake a US$250mn buyback, which is expected to  complete in 2026.</li>
</ul>


On the 27th October, Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) announced an Offer for 88.04%-held Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), after MAND concurrently announced the partial sale of OCB to Alibaba.  
MAND will pocket US$925mn from the sale. The privatisation will set Matheson back ~US$500mn. Alibaba is ostensibly funding MAND's privatisation. And then some.  
Last week Matheson announced it will undertake a US$250mn buyback, which is expected to  complete in 2026.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.</li>
<li>The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.</li>
<li>We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.


Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows

Vietnam

Vietnam Dairy Products JSC produces dairy foods. The Company produces milk, condensed milk, milk powder, yoghurt, ice cream and cheese. Vietnam Dairy Products also produces cookies, coffee and tea and bottled water.

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Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN)

JCNC's Logic-Defying Valuation

There is no apparent justification for the current level. Expect Matheson to chip away at minorities. But a full-blown Offer appears unrealistic....

David Blennerhassett

VNM - The Big Boat Strives to Conquer Mighty Waves

We observe that VNM’s business performance growth has stagnated since Covid-19, with its market share declining amid a gloomy domestic dairy market.

Rong Viet Securities