Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).</li>
<li>We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).
We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.


Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities advanced in a holiday-shortened week, buoyed by global risk-on sentiment and a weaker yen</li>
<li>Strangely, Services PMI rose to 52.4 in April, showing continued expansion with stronger new orders despite falling business confidence and other lead indicators</li>
<li>NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)  stock surged +41% this week following the announcement that parent company NTT will launch a tender offer to acquire all remaining shares</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities advanced in a holiday-shortened week, buoyed by global risk-on sentiment and a weaker yen
Strangely, Services PMI rose to 52.4 in April, showing continued expansion with stronger new orders despite falling business confidence and other lead indicators
NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)  stock surged +41% this week following the announcement that parent company NTT will launch a tender offer to acquire all remaining shares


<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a> has increased its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> offer to JPY9,850, a 4.2% premium to the previous JPY9,451 offer and a 2.6% premium to Bain’s JPY9,600 offer.</li>
<li>A bump from KKR was expected and necessary, as the shares have consistently traded above its previous offer. Bain is scheduled to launch its competing offer this week. </li>
<li>Expect a final round of bids, as KKR's offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR's offer, which remains below the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
</ul>



KKR &amp; Co (KKR US) has increased its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) offer to JPY9,850, a 4.2% premium to the previous JPY9,451 offer and a 2.6% premium to Bain’s JPY9,600 offer.
A bump from KKR was expected and necessary, as the shares have consistently traded above its previous offer. Bain is scheduled to launch its competing offer this week. 
Expect a final round of bids, as KKR's offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR's offer, which remains below the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range. 


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850

<ul>
<li><span>KKR has <a href="https://media.kkr.com/news-details?news_id=149f73ae-32ba-49df-869e-7eaa102b72a0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extended</a> the close date of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> second tender offer period from 9 to 24 January. All other terms remain unchanged. </span></li>
<li>KKR unconvincingly tries to criticize the Bain offer and unsurprisingly believes there will not be a tender offer by Bain that investors can tender into. </li>
<li>Despite KKR’s gamesmanship, it has not declared its offer final. A bump remains necessary as Bain remains resolute in launching its offer. The final winning offer could be around JPY10,000. </li>
</ul>


KKR has extended the close date of the Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) second tender offer period from 9 to 24 January. All other terms remain unchanged. 
KKR unconvincingly tries to criticize the Bain offer and unsurprisingly believes there will not be a tender offer by Bain that investors can tender into. 
Despite KKR’s gamesmanship, it has not declared its offer final. A bump remains necessary as Bain remains resolute in launching its offer. The final winning offer could be around JPY10,000. 


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Extends Again, Delaying the Inevitable Bump

Japan

SCSK Corporation provides a variety of IT services including system solutions, software development, and data center and communication network management. The Company sells packaged software and network equipment and develops software for distribution, manufacturing, and financial systems among others.  SCSK handles infrastructure software as well.

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Scsk Corp (9719 JP)

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | Tariff Relief

Japanese equities rose due to global risk-on sentiment and a weaker yen, Services PMI increased despite falling business confidence, and NTT Data...

Mark Chadwick

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850

The bump was required. Expect a final round of bids, as KKR's offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR's offer, which remains below the high...

Arun George

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Extends Again, Delaying the Inevitable Bump

Despite KKR’s gamesmanship, it has not declared its offer final. A bump remains necessary as Bain remains resolute in launching its offer. The...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | Tariff Relief

​Japanese equities rose due to global risk-on sentiment and a weaker yen, Services PMI increased despite falling business confidence, and NTT Data...

Mark Chadwick

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Nearing the Endgame as KKR Bumps to JPY9,850

The bump was required. Expect a final round of bids, as KKR's offer is not final. The shares closed above KKR's offer, which remains below the high...

Arun George

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Extends Again, Delaying the Inevitable Bump

Despite KKR’s gamesmanship, it has not declared its offer final. A bump remains necessary as Bain remains resolute in launching its offer. The...

Arun George

Japanese equities rose due to global risk-on sentiment and a weaker yen, Services PMI increased despite falling business confidence, and NTT Data...