Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. </li>
<li>Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? </li>
<li>Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.</li>
</ul>


Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. 
Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? 
Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.


Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>China momentum continues with KWEB breaking out above WEEKLY double-bottom base</li>
<li>Stocks REPORTING this week that look technically sound include PDD BZ and EH</li>
<li>In-Depth look at individual leaders in Tencent Holdings, Futu Holdings, and Sony Group</li>
</ul>


China momentum continues with KWEB breaking out above WEEKLY double-bottom base
Stocks REPORTING this week that look technically sound include PDD BZ and EH
In-Depth look at individual leaders in Tencent Holdings, Futu Holdings, and Sony Group


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Tesla Inc.'s accomplishments in 2023 were substantial, with record production and shipments of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, per the company's Q4 2023 earnings call transcript.</li><li>As well, in Q4, it was manufacturing vehicles at nearly 2 million cars per year, a remarkable achievement.</li><li>Tesla's Fremont factory alone produced 560,000 cars, solidifying its status as the highest production automotive plant in North America.</li></ul>

Tesla Inc.'s accomplishments in 2023 were substantial, with record production and shipments of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, per the company's Q4 2023 earnings call transcript.As well, in Q4, it was manufacturing vehicles at nearly 2 million cars per year, a remarkable achievement.Tesla's Fremont factory alone produced 560,000 cars, solidifying its status as the highest production automotive plant in North America.

Tesla Inc: What Factors Will Help It Survive The Rising Competition & Tapering EV Demand? - Major Drivers

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

<ul>
<li>As I warned, troubled Q4 results were worse than investors expected, even with further drops in already plunging market expectations following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a "beat."</li>
<li>Even numbers as reported were weaker than reported when I stripped out subsidies and accounting boosts which mask underlying trouble—as is typical with Tesla (see attached model).</li>
<li>Tesla continues to foster the false impression that it's healthier, more profitable and more successful than it is, which greatly overstates its ability to weather the storm already upon it.</li>
</ul>


As I warned, troubled Q4 results were worse than investors expected, even with further drops in already plunging market expectations following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a "beat."
Even numbers as reported were weaker than reported when I stripped out subsidies and accounting boosts which mask underlying trouble—as is typical with Tesla (see attached model).
Tesla continues to foster the false impression that it's healthier, more profitable and more successful than it is, which greatly overstates its ability to weather the storm already upon it.


Tesla: Moving The Goalposts Works Until It Doesn't

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.</li><li><p>I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.</p></li><li><p>For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future</p></li></ul><div data-component-name="DigestPostEmbed"><a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/chinese-evs-and-the-lagging-edge" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></div>

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

Red Dragon Awakening

Focusing on Chinese names that have already been leading, and these are the ones most likely to continue to do so going forward. Very specific...

Douglas Busch

Tesla Inc: What Factors Will Help It Survive The Rising Competition & Tapering EV Demand? - Major Drivers

Tesla Inc.'s accomplishments in 2023 were substantial, with record production and shipments of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, per the...

Baptista Research

Tesla: Moving The Goalposts Works Until It Doesn't

As I warned, troubled Q4 results tracked my ests but were worse than even plunging market ests following disappointing deliveries dubiously called...

Vicki Bryan

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

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