Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. </li>
<li>Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? </li>
<li>Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.</li>
</ul>


Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. 
Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? 
Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.


Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>The fact that Tesla Korea is losing its market share significantly in Korea portends increased challenges for Tesla Motors on a global basis. </li>
<li>The number of new Tesla vehicles registered in Korea was 1,303 units in 1Q 2023, down 52% YoY. </li>
<li>In this insight, we provide three major reasons for Tesla's market share losses in Korea. We also provide Tesla Korea's 2022 results analysis.</li>
</ul>


The fact that Tesla Korea is losing its market share significantly in Korea portends increased challenges for Tesla Motors on a global basis. 
The number of new Tesla vehicles registered in Korea was 1,303 units in 1Q 2023, down 52% YoY. 
In this insight, we provide three major reasons for Tesla's market share losses in Korea. We also provide Tesla Korea's 2022 results analysis.


Market Share Loss for Tesla Korea Accelerating in 1Q 2023

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

<ul>
<li>Tesla reported a 6% Q4 EPS beat, but stripping out a one-off deferred revenue booking &amp; higher than expected regulatory credits, Q4 results missed by 9%.  </li>
<li>Tesla rose +5.5% post market close after Musk said YTD orders are "2x" output. None of the data we have seen implies such demand, especially weekly China sales. </li>
<li>What went unnoticed on the earnings call is that Tesla created a $7bn credit facility this month, which should dash all hopes of them doing a share buyback in 2023. </li>
</ul>


Tesla reported a 6% Q4 EPS beat, but stripping out a one-off deferred revenue booking &amp; higher than expected regulatory credits, Q4 results missed by 9%.  
Tesla rose +5.5% post market close after Musk said YTD orders are "2x" output. None of the data we have seen implies such demand, especially weekly China sales. 
What went unnoticed on the earnings call is that Tesla created a $7bn credit facility this month, which should dash all hopes of them doing a share buyback in 2023. 


Tesla Q4 Miss Is Big & Sets the Stage for a Drop in 2023 Profits

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>2025 has been a tumultuous year for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a>, the stock struggled due to weakening sales, and CEO Elon Musk's role in the US government has damaged the brand.</li>
<li>
Rumors of Tesla’s board seeking to replace Elon Musk are likely unfounded. A leadership change could backfire. The stock is up 26% since Musk signaled reduced involvement in government affairs.
</li>
<li>Despite rising competition from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and others, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a>  remains a top pure-play EV maker. The current pullback could present a potential buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


2025 has been a tumultuous year for Tesla (TSLA US), the stock struggled due to weakening sales, and CEO Elon Musk's role in the US government has damaged the brand.

Rumors of Tesla’s board seeking to replace Elon Musk are likely unfounded. A leadership change could backfire. The stock is up 26% since Musk signaled reduced involvement in government affairs.

Despite rising competition from BYD (1211 HK) and others, Tesla (TSLA US)  remains a top pure-play EV maker. The current pullback could present a potential buying opportunity.


TESLA (TSLA US) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Elon Musk's Replacement

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Tesla's first quarter of 2025 earnings revealed a company navigating immediate difficulties while maintaining focus on long-term opportunities.</li><li>Despite declines in sales, operating income, and profit margins compared to the previous year, Tesla's stock surged 5.4%, largely because investors had anticipated weak results after a 13% year-over-year drop in deliveries.</li><li>Critical to the stock's resilience was the reaffirmation that Tesla’s timeline for launching a lower-priced vehicle remains intact, with production expected to begin in the first half of 2025.</li></ul>

Tesla's first quarter of 2025 earnings revealed a company navigating immediate difficulties while maintaining focus on long-term opportunities.Despite declines in sales, operating income, and profit margins compared to the previous year, Tesla's stock surged 5.4%, largely because investors had anticipated weak results after a 13% year-over-year drop in deliveries.Critical to the stock's resilience was the reaffirmation that Tesla’s timeline for launching a lower-priced vehicle remains intact, with production expected to begin in the first half of 2025.

Tesla’s Bold New Move: Affordable Cars, Robotaxis, and a Stock Surge Investors Didn’t Expect!

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

Tesla Q4 Miss Is Big & Sets the Stage for a Drop in 2023 Profits

Tesla sees a 9% earnings miss and warns that raw material headwinds remain in 2023. Recent consensus estimates for 2023 now imply at least a 2%...

SC Capital

TESLA (TSLA US) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Elon Musk's Replacement

Tesla's had a tumultuous year so far, struggling sales and a damaged brand from CEO Elon Musk's government involvement, but we see a potential...

Nico Rosti

Tesla’s Bold New Move: Affordable Cars, Robotaxis, and a Stock Surge Investors Didn’t Expect!

Tesla's first quarter of 2025 earnings revealed a company navigating immediate difficulties while maintaining focus on long-term...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

Market Share Loss for Tesla Korea Accelerating in 1Q 2023

In this insight, we provide three major reasons for Tesla's market share losses in Korea. We also provide Tesla Korea's 2022 results analysis.

Douglas Kim

Tesla Q4 Miss Is Big & Sets the Stage for a Drop in 2023 Profits

Tesla sees a 9% earnings miss and warns that raw material headwinds remain in 2023. Recent consensus estimates for 2023 now imply at least a 2%...

SC Capital

TESLA (TSLA US) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Elon Musk's Replacement

​Tesla's had a tumultuous year so far, struggling sales and a damaged brand from CEO Elon Musk's government involvement, but we see a potential...

Nico Rosti

Tesla’s Bold New Move: Affordable Cars, Robotaxis, and a Stock Surge Investors Didn’t Expect!

Tesla's first quarter of 2025 earnings revealed a company navigating immediate difficulties while maintaining focus on long-term...

Baptista Research

Tesla's had a tumultuous year so far, struggling sales and a damaged brand from CEO Elon Musk's government involvement, but we see a potential...