Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 3 adds and 3 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 13.8% and will result in a one-way trade of US$174m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in some stocks over the next few days - especially where there is multiple days ADV.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 3 adds and 3 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.
Estimated one-way turnover is 13.8% and will result in a one-way trade of US$174m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in some stocks over the next few days - especially where there is multiple days ADV.


Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 28% Turnover & US$350m Trade

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Pony AI, a Chinese autonomous driving unicorn, is expected to price its IPO in November. Shares of WeRide, their primary competitor, end trading up ~7% in market debut on Friday.</li>
<li>Businesses of both self-driving technology companies have much in common: heavy operating losses, no defined break-even timeline and low revenue growth rates.</li>
<li>In their F-1, Pony AI has revised the minimum QIPO valuation from $8.5B to $4B, raising potential concerns of lofty valuation in the public markets.</li>
</ul>


Pony AI, a Chinese autonomous driving unicorn, is expected to price its IPO in November. Shares of WeRide, their primary competitor, end trading up ~7% in market debut on Friday.
Businesses of both self-driving technology companies have much in common: heavy operating losses, no defined break-even timeline and low revenue growth rates.
In their F-1, Pony AI has revised the minimum QIPO valuation from $8.5B to $4B, raising potential concerns of lofty valuation in the public markets.


Pony AI IPO Valuation Analysis: Likely To Price IPO Below $4B Valuation Threshold

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Plans 2025E Price Hike of Up to 10% for Advanced Nodes—Exceeding Expectations</li>
<li>MediaTek Poised to Benefit from the ARM and Qualcomm Dispute</li>
<li>Is Splitting Intel Key for Its Survival? Intel Ex-Directors Pen Op-Ed Piece</li>
</ul>


TSMC Plans 2025E Price Hike of Up to 10% for Advanced Nodes—Exceeding Expectations
MediaTek Poised to Benefit from the ARM and Qualcomm Dispute
Is Splitting Intel Key for Its Survival? Intel Ex-Directors Pen Op-Ed Piece


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Earnings Imminent; New TSMC Price Hike; Mediatek Winner of QCOM/ARM Spat

<ul>
<li>WeRide, a Guangzhou-based autonomous driving unicorn, priced its IPO at $15.50 per ADS, a low-end of the price range, implying a market cap of ~$4.2B.</li>
<li>WeRide sold ~7.7M ADSs, of which Robert Bosch GmbH has acquired 6.5M ADSs, representing ~84% of the ADSs being offered in this IPO.</li>
<li>In addition, certain investors and existing shareholders purchased ~$321M worth of WeRide Class A shares in the concurrent private placements.</li>
</ul>


WeRide, a Guangzhou-based autonomous driving unicorn, priced its IPO at $15.50 per ADS, a low-end of the price range, implying a market cap of ~$4.2B.
WeRide sold ~7.7M ADSs, of which Robert Bosch GmbH has acquired 6.5M ADSs, representing ~84% of the ADSs being offered in this IPO.
In addition, certain investors and existing shareholders purchased ~$321M worth of WeRide Class A shares in the concurrent private placements.


WeRide Low Float US IPO: Pricing and Nasdaq Debut

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

<ul><li>For years, the company’s execution in the automotive hardware business has been disappointing.</li><li>The staler the product line-up got, the more margins got squeezed and growth expectations faltered.</li><li>This has put the FSD optionality front and center in the Tesla bull case. So much, that I had previously estimated that it commands north of 70% of the market capitalization.</li></ul>

For years, the company’s execution in the automotive hardware business has been disappointing.The staler the product line-up got, the more margins got squeezed and growth expectations faltered.This has put the FSD optionality front and center in the Tesla bull case. So much, that I had previously estimated that it commands north of 70% of the market capitalization.

The Most Surprising Thing About Tesla's 3Q24

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 28% Turnover & US$350m Trade

There are 3 adds/3 deletes for the Solactive Global Lithium Index resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 13.8% and in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

Pony AI IPO Valuation Analysis: Likely To Price IPO Below $4B Valuation Threshold

Pony AI is expected to IPO in November. In my insight, I focus on competitive landscape in the AD space, IPO valuation and key risks.

Andrei Zakharov

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Earnings Imminent; New TSMC Price Hike; Mediatek Winner of QCOM/ARM Spat

TSMC to raise prices even higher, MediaTek to benefit from ARM and Qualcomm dispute, former Intel directors suggest splitting Intel for survival.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

WeRide Low Float US IPO: Pricing and Nasdaq Debut

WeRide has successfully completed concurrent private placements and IPO in the United States. In my insight, I discuss pricing and first-day IPO...

Andrei Zakharov

The Most Surprising Thing About Tesla's 3Q24

For years, the company’s execution in the automotive hardware business has been disappointing. The staler the product line-up got, the more margins...

Fallacy Alarm

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 28% Turnover & US$350m Trade

There are 3 adds/3 deletes for the Solactive Global Lithium Index resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 13.8% and in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

Pony AI IPO Valuation Analysis: Likely To Price IPO Below $4B Valuation Threshold

Pony AI is expected to IPO in November. In my insight, I focus on competitive landscape in the AD space, IPO valuation and key risks.

Andrei Zakharov

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Earnings Imminent; New TSMC Price Hike; Mediatek Winner of QCOM/ARM Spat

​TSMC to raise prices even higher, MediaTek to benefit from ARM and Qualcomm dispute, former Intel directors suggest splitting Intel for survival.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

WeRide Low Float US IPO: Pricing and Nasdaq Debut

WeRide has successfully completed concurrent private placements and IPO in the United States. In my insight, I discuss pricing and first-day IPO...

Andrei Zakharov

The Most Surprising Thing About Tesla's 3Q24

For years, the company’s execution in the automotive hardware business has been disappointing. The staler the product line-up got, the more margins...

Fallacy Alarm

TSMC to raise prices even higher, MediaTek to benefit from ARM and Qualcomm dispute, former Intel directors suggest splitting Intel for survival.