New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL.</li><li>SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share, its ARPUs are already ahead of One NZ's, its recent price changes have been mixed and it under-indexes in the growing MVNO market.</li><li>While SPK may benefit from a cyclical recovery in some IT services, the endgame for this segment is unclear.</li></ul>

We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL.SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share, its ARPUs are already ahead of One NZ's, its recent price changes have been mixed and it under-indexes in the growing MVNO market.While SPK may benefit from a cyclical recovery in some IT services, the endgame for this segment is unclear.

Spark NZ Low Signal—Down To UNDERPERFORM

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>President Trump has indicated that he will lower tariffs on ASEAN countries in exchange for future supply commitments of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) to counter China's industry dominance.</li>
<li>Although the supply commitments of REEs to supplant China's production will take years to fulfill, the tariff relief will provide immediate benefits to Chinese textile manufacturers with Southeast Asian production.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)</a> ,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yue-yuen-industrial-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12281:1" rel="noopener">Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stella-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7610:1" rel="noopener">Stella International (1836 HK)</a> will benefit from the tariff relief.
</li>
</ul>


President Trump has indicated that he will lower tariffs on ASEAN countries in exchange for future supply commitments of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) to counter China's industry dominance.
Although the supply commitments of REEs to supplant China's production will take years to fulfill, the tariff relief will provide immediate benefits to Chinese textile manufacturers with Southeast Asian production.

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) , Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK) ,Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK) , and Stella International (1836 HK) will benefit from the tariff relief.



How Rare Earth Elements Helped China's Textile Companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and Longroad; as well as its most promising future growth platform, Gurin Energy.</li><li>The key updates were reiterations of medium-term targets from each of its three large investments.</li><li>CDC is now tracking to the bottom end of its FY26 guidance range, with timing delays the reason, but it retained confidence in its FY27 target, which now implies ~+70% year-on-year EBITDAF growth; we forecast ~+60% growth.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and Longroad; as well as its most promising future growth platform, Gurin Energy.The key updates were reiterations of medium-term targets from each of its three large investments.CDC is now tracking to the bottom end of its FY26 guidance range, with timing delays the reason, but it retained confidence in its FY27 target, which now implies ~+70% year-on-year EBITDAF growth; we forecast ~+60% growth.

Infratil Investor Day 2025—Reiterating Targets

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>While the 2H FY25 result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> does not look exciting, there are meaningful operating and financial improvements deep inside. </li>
<li>The HSI change is a good proxy for its investment gains, and the 5.9% gain since end-FY25 (Mar) should positively reflect on CNDX's 1H FY26 results. </li>
<li>The sports goods business is not expected to be a drag in FY26. Trading at a steep 76.5% discount, the stock stays highly undervalued.</li>
</ul>


While the 2H FY25 result of China Dongxiang (3818 HK) does not look exciting, there are meaningful operating and financial improvements deep inside. 
The HSI change is a good proxy for its investment gains, and the 5.9% gain since end-FY25 (Mar) should positively reflect on CNDX's 1H FY26 results. 
The sports goods business is not expected to be a drag in FY26. Trading at a steep 76.5% discount, the stock stays highly undervalued.


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Better than It Appears

<ul>
<li>1Q25 sales for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> continue the trend in 4Q24, with ANTA and FILA brands recording a healthy high-single-digit YoY increase.</li>
<li>With the US-China trade war, the negative impact on consumer appetite is uncertain. It is difficult to project the 2Q-4Q25 revenue and margin outlook. </li>
<li>Its associate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a>, has 36% of revenue from the Americas, while the Jack Wolfskin acquisition has limited contribution. Its 50% premium to sector caps upside.  </li>
</ul>


1Q25 sales for Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) continue the trend in 4Q24, with ANTA and FILA brands recording a healthy high-single-digit YoY increase.
With the US-China trade war, the negative impact on consumer appetite is uncertain. It is difficult to project the 2Q-4Q25 revenue and margin outlook. 
Its associate, Amer Sports (AS US), has 36% of revenue from the Americas, while the Jack Wolfskin acquisition has limited contribution. Its 50% premium to sector caps upside.  


Anta Sports (2020 HK): 1Q25 Stable, yet the Margin Remains Our Concern

China

361 Degrees International Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, markets and distributes sportswear products, including athletic footwear, apparel and accessories.

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361 Degrees International (1361 HK)

Spark NZ Low Signal—Down To UNDERPERFORM

We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL. SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share...

Forsyth Barr

How Rare Earth Elements Helped China's Textile Companies

President Trump will lower tariffs on ASEAN countries in exchange for future supply commitments of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) to counter China's...

David Mudd

Infratil Investor Day 2025—Reiterating Targets

Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and...

Forsyth Barr

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Better than It Appears

China Dongxiang Group shows promising operating and financial improvements despite unexciting 2H FY25 results. The stock remains highly...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): 1Q25 Stable, yet the Margin Remains Our Concern

Anta Sports has a healthy 1Q25, but uncertainty looms due to the US-China trade war and Amer Sports' exposure. The Jack Wolfskin acquisition will...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Spark NZ Low Signal—Down To UNDERPERFORM

We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL. SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share...

Forsyth Barr

How Rare Earth Elements Helped China's Textile Companies

President Trump will lower tariffs on ASEAN countries in exchange for future supply commitments of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) to counter China's...

David Mudd

Infratil Investor Day 2025—Reiterating Targets

Infratil (IFT) hosted a confident investor day with presentations from its three largest portfolio companies: CDC Data Centres, One NZ, and...

Forsyth Barr

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Better than It Appears

​China Dongxiang Group shows promising operating and financial improvements despite unexciting 2H FY25 results. The stock remains highly...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): 1Q25 Stable, yet the Margin Remains Our Concern

​Anta Sports has a healthy 1Q25, but uncertainty looms due to the US-China trade war and Amer Sports' exposure. The Jack Wolfskin acquisition will...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Dongxiang Group shows promising operating and financial improvements despite unexciting 2H FY25 results. The stock remains highly...

Anta Sports has a healthy 1Q25, but uncertainty looms due to the US-China trade war and Amer Sports' exposure. The Jack Wolfskin acquisition will...