HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>'s strong FY24 result is masked by one-offs and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a>. Without them, its earnings would have declined by an alarming 5.4% in 2H24. </li>
<li>Its ANTA and FILA brands have seen YoY operating profit drop in 2H24, with heavy margin pressure. Their revenue growth has also showed meaningful slowdown sequentially.</li>
<li>The 18.6x PER for FY25 is at a 50% premium to the sector, but the market expectation of 15% growth looks challenging. The YTD rally has opened room for profit-taking.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)'s strong FY24 result is masked by one-offs and Amer Sports (AS US). Without them, its earnings would have declined by an alarming 5.4% in 2H24. 
Its ANTA and FILA brands have seen YoY operating profit drop in 2H24, with heavy margin pressure. Their revenue growth has also showed meaningful slowdown sequentially.
The 18.6x PER for FY25 is at a 50% premium to the sector, but the market expectation of 15% growth looks challenging. The YTD rally has opened room for profit-taking.


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Need to Exercise Caution

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a>'s share price change has not sufficiently reflected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. </li>
<li>Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.</li>
<li>Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.</li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK)'s share price change has not sufficiently reflected Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s movement. Their share price ratio is now at a historical low. 
Its SOTP value increased by HK$927m with the surge in its PE, unlisted and fixed-income investment value, but its market capitalisation has gone up by just HK$258m.
Holdings in unlisted assets like Ant Financial and JD Technology (JD Digital) will benefit from the AI bonanza and the better sentiment in the HK IPO market.


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Co Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong and China shares have outperformed most Asian markets over the last year.  In HK the consumer discretionary sector has lost strength and momentum over the last 4 weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cssc-hong-kong-shipping-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28068:1" rel="noopener">CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Co Ltd (3877 HK)</a> was rated BUY after reporting strong results.  Analysts have a target price of $2.50 on the stock.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)</a> has shown earnings growth exceeding revenue growth for the last seven years. Technically, the stock looks weak near term, but analysts project 60% upside.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong and China shares have outperformed most Asian markets over the last year.  In HK the consumer discretionary sector has lost strength and momentum over the last 4 weeks.

CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Co Ltd (3877 HK) was rated BUY after reporting strong results.  Analysts have a target price of $2.50 on the stock.

Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK) has shown earnings growth exceeding revenue growth for the last seven years. Technically, the stock looks weak near term, but analysts project 60% upside.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (January 10)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK)</a> turned around in 1H FY25 as it reported a net profit of Rmb137m, vs. losses of Rmb410m a year ago. Interim DPS increased 92.7% YoY.</li>
<li>Investment gain is the key driver, reaching Rmb171m in the period, compared with losses of Rmb497m previously. Most investment categories contributed positively. </li>
<li>CDNX trades on a 76.9% discount to its SOTP value and a P/B of just 0.22x. Net cash amounted to Rmb3.2bn, or 58.3% more than its market capitalisation. </li>
</ul>



China Dongxiang (3818 HK) turned around in 1H FY25 as it reported a net profit of Rmb137m, vs. losses of Rmb410m a year ago. Interim DPS increased 92.7% YoY.
Investment gain is the key driver, reaching Rmb171m in the period, compared with losses of Rmb497m previously. Most investment categories contributed positively. 
CDNX trades on a 76.9% discount to its SOTP value and a P/B of just 0.22x. Net cash amounted to Rmb3.2bn, or 58.3% more than its market capitalisation. 


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Investment Gain Remains the Driver

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.</li>
<li>Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health International (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.
</li>
</ul>


Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.
Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) , JD Health International (6618 HK) and Sands China (1928 HK) were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

China

361 Degrees International Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, markets and distributes sportswear products, including athletic footwear, apparel and accessories.

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361 Degrees International (1361 HK)

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Need to Exercise Caution

Anta's strong FY24 result was overshadowed by one-offs and Amer's impact, with earnings declining by 5.4% in 2H24. ANTA and FILA brands facing...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (January 10)

HK/China markets have outperformed other Asian markets since the beginning of 2024. In HK the consumer discretionary sector has lost momentum as...

David Mudd

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Investment Gain Remains the Driver

China Dongxiang turned around in 1H FY25 with a net profit of Rmb137m, driven by investment gains. CDNX trades at a significant discount to its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

Healthcare sector gains momentum in HK and materials and energy lag. Anta is appealing to the mass market with new megastores. JDH benefits from...

David Mudd

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Anta Sports (2020 HK): Need to Exercise Caution

​Anta's strong FY24 result was overshadowed by one-offs and Amer's impact, with earnings declining by 5.4% in 2H24. ANTA and FILA brands facing...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): More than Just BABA

​CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (January 10)

HK/China markets have outperformed other Asian markets since the beginning of 2024. In HK the consumer discretionary sector has lost momentum as...

David Mudd

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Investment Gain Remains the Driver

​China Dongxiang turned around in 1H FY25 with a net profit of Rmb137m, driven by investment gains. CDNX trades at a significant discount to its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

Healthcare sector gains momentum in HK and materials and energy lag. Anta is appealing to the mass market with new megastores. JDH benefits from...

David Mudd

Anta's strong FY24 result was overshadowed by one-offs and Amer's impact, with earnings declining by 5.4% in 2H24. ANTA and FILA brands facing...

CNDX's share price has not reflected BABA's, and the price ratio is at a historical low. The change in market cap has not kept pace with SOTP. Its...

China Dongxiang turned around in 1H FY25 with a net profit of Rmb137m, driven by investment gains. CDNX trades at a significant discount to its...