Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan's banks</li>
<li>Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank's income</li>
<li>Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore</li>
</ul>


Comments today from BOJ suggest we are nearing the end of negative interest rates in Japan, which can mean an immediate boost to net interest income for Japan's banks
Many banks have cash and deposits with the BOJ at high levels, where yields are negative, and this can be the first big positive delta to bank's income
Credit metrics in Japan are improving and loan growth is accelerating, this is generally at odds with other major banking systems, US, UK, Singapore


Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

<ul>
<li>We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. </li>
<li>Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.</li>
</ul>


We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. 
Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. 
Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.


Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. </li>
<li>More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. </li>
<li>The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. </li>
</ul>


About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. 
More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. 
The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. 


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation</li>
<li>This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD</li>
<li>The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates</li>
</ul>


New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation
This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD
The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

The BOJ finally raised short term rates today from 25bps to 50bps. This is an historic rate rise. Japan's banks can see better income from JGBs,...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

Banking on the BoJ

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

The BOJ finally raised short term rates today from 25bps to 50bps. This is an historic rate rise. Japan's banks can see better income from JGBs,...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

Banking on the BoJ

​New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market