Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI from hereon) aims to raise around US$500m in its Australian listing. It is owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-asset-manage-cl-a-0483cfb5-71a5-4931-af80-901e5f30aace" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23741:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield Asset Management (BAM US)</a>. </p><p>It holds a 99-lease for Dalrymple Bay Terminal (DBT), a coal export terminal. DBT was commissioned in 1983 and is located close to Bowen Basin, the world’s largest met coal export region, in Queensland.  </p><p>The terminal is a common-user facility providing services to a large number of mining customers. Approximately 80% of the coal shipped through DBT in 2019 was metallurgical (met) coal. It is the largest met coal terminal, handling 15% of global met coal in 2019 and 30% of Queensland coal exports. </p><p>While the current revenue for DBI is regulated and hence, fairly stable, it has been trying to change that so that it can set its own tariffs directly with clients. However, even if it manages to do that the upside might be limited.</p><p>As per my calculations, if it doesn’t manage to succeed in doing so, its revenue could drop by an amount far exceeding the projected upside. This doesn’t make DBI appear particularly attractive.</p>

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI from hereon) aims to raise around US$500m in its Australian listing. It is owned by Brookfield Asset Management (BAM US). It holds a 99-lease for Dalrymple Bay Terminal (DBT), a coal export terminal. DBT was commissioned in 1983 and is located close to Bowen Basin, the world’s largest met coal export region, in Queensland.  The terminal is a common-user facility providing services to a large number of mining customers. Approximately 80% of the coal shipped through DBT in 2019 was metallurgical (met) coal. It is the largest met coal terminal, handling 15% of global met coal in 2019 and 30% of Queensland coal exports. While the current revenue for DBI is regulated and hence, fairly stable, it has been trying to change that so that it can set its own tariffs directly with clients. However, even if it manages to do that the upside might be limited.As per my calculations, if it doesn’t manage to succeed in doing so, its revenue could drop by an amount far exceeding the projected upside. This doesn’t make DBI appear particularly attractive.

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure - Highly Curious Timing

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>TMI's short-term iron ore sentiment indicator has turned negative while steel sentiment holds up; a divergence of this magnitude hasn't been observed since 2018</li>
<li>This dynamic appears to be driven by recent Chinese steel shutdowns on environmental grounds, which the market perceives as aimed at cooling the iron ore price more so than the typical "anti-pollution" measures</li>
<li>Text mining shows a recent +2x STDEV increase in Chinese media mentions of steel in an environmental context, seen as supportive for steel prices but potentially negative for iron ore</li>
<li>More alarmingly, we are seeing a +2x STDEV spike in discussion of iron ore in a policy context, as Chinese authorities appear to be more attuned to CISA's complaint that foreign iron ore miners are disproportionately benefiting from the recovery while Chinese steelmakers suffer</li>
<li>Although underlying activity levels remain strong, the combination of punitive policies and an improving supply picture suggests tightness in iron ore may have peaked</li>
</ul><section><div id="ember4041"><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div></div></div></div></section>


TMI's short-term iron ore sentiment indicator has turned negative while steel sentiment holds up; a divergence of this magnitude hasn't been observed since 2018
This dynamic appears to be driven by recent Chinese steel shutdowns on environmental grounds, which the market perceives as aimed at cooling the iron ore price more so than the typical "anti-pollution" measures
Text mining shows a recent +2x STDEV increase in Chinese media mentions of steel in an environmental context, seen as supportive for steel prices but potentially negative for iron ore
More alarmingly, we are seeing a +2x STDEV spike in discussion of iron ore in a policy context, as Chinese authorities appear to be more attuned to CISA's complaint that foreign iron ore miners are disproportionately benefiting from the recovery while Chinese steelmakers suffer
Although underlying activity levels remain strong, the combination of punitive policies and an improving supply picture suggests tightness in iron ore may have peaked
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>The prospective <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22202:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Resources (VED LN)</a> Delisting Offer for its subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> is nearing its end-game.</p>
<p>In my last insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/putting-sightlines-on-the-vedanta-delisting-offer-timing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42260" rel="noopener">Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Delisting Offer TIMING</a> I suggested that Vedanta Limited was a short-timer. I expect it is now very much one. I expect an Approval In-Principle from the Exchange shortly, if not imminently.</p>
<p>For a variety of reasons, the shares actually closed down at INR 125.95 - down INR 2.00 from the price at which they were trading 18 August, having visited the mid INR 130s in the interim. </p>
<p>The reporting of the "book value" of Vedanta Limited at INR 89.38/share this past week by parent Vedanta Resources is something of a farce, albeit one grounded in a legal technicality. Investors and traders who watched the Vedanta share price fall after that, then continue to fall into the end of the week because of US tech valuation and options shenanigans have had the opportunity to buy or add to a position more inexpensively than they should have expected. </p>
<p>As of now, the parent has raised approximately US$3.15bn in funds explicitly for the take-private but there is more money on tap and investors should understand the parameters which exist or have been explained. This event is big and interesting and should still hold more value for investors, but it is not without risk. </p>
<p>More on the money, timing, legal, and risk parameters below.</p>
<hr>
<p>Insights previously published in the timeline of the Vedanta Delisting Offer are listed below.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" style="width: 724.8px;">
<h3>Relevant Insights To Date</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;"><strong>Theme or Ticker</strong></td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;"><strong>Insight Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">2019</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">Indian M&amp;A Guide</td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-india-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30885" rel="noopener">Quiddity India M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">24 May 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">Delisting Offers</td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indian-delisting-exit-offers-know-your-process-and-the-games-played" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39683" rel="noopener">Indian Delisting/Exit Offers - Know Your Process and The Games Played</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">19 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">Failed Exit Offers</td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/failed-exit-offers-in-india-lessons-for-vedl-adani-and-hexw" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40492" rel="noopener">Failed Exit Offers in India: Lessons for VEDL, ADANI, and HEXW?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">27 May 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-delisting-offer-how-it-goes-from-here" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39761" rel="noopener">Vedanta Delisting Offer - How It Goes From Here</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">22 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">Vedanta Limited</td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-delisting-offer-opportunities-and-timing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40528" rel="noopener">Vedanta Delisting Offer: Opportunities and Timing</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">25 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">Vedanta Limited</td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-buyout-loan-huge-hindustan-zinc-div-but-may-change-vedanta-rbb-timing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40653" rel="noopener">Vedanta Buyout Loan = HUGE Hindustan Zinc Div But May Change Vedanta RBB Timing</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">14 Jul 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">Vedanta Limited</td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/putting-sightlines-on-the-vedanta-discovered-price" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41236" rel="noopener">Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Discovered Price</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">18 Aug 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">Vedanta Limited</td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/putting-sightlines-on-the-vedanta-delisting-offer-timing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42260" rel="noopener">Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Delisting Offer TIMING</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

The prospective Vedanta Resources (VED LN) Delisting Offer for its subsidiary Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) is nearing its end-game.
In my last insight Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Delisting Offer TIMING I suggested that Vedanta Limited was a short-timer. I expect it is now very much one. I expect an Approval In-Principle from the Exchange shortly, if not imminently.
For a variety of reasons, the shares actually closed down at INR 125.95 - down INR 2.00 from the price at which they were trading 18 August, having visited the mid INR 130s in the interim. 
The reporting of the "book value" of Vedanta Limited at INR 89.38/share this past week by parent Vedanta Resources is something of a farce, albeit one grounded in a legal technicality. Investors and traders who watched the Vedanta share price fall after that, then continue to fall into the end of the week because of US tech valuation and options shenanigans have had the opportunity to buy or add to a position more inexpensively than they should have expected. 
As of now, the parent has raised approximately US$3.15bn in funds explicitly for the take-private but there is more money on tap and investors should understand the parameters which exist or have been explained. This event is big and interesting and should still hold more value for investors, but it is not without risk. 
More on the money, timing, legal, and risk parameters below.

Insights previously published in the timeline of the Vedanta Delisting Offer are listed below.




Relevant Insights To Date



Date
Theme or Ticker
Insight Title


2019
Indian M&amp;A Guide

Quiddity India M&amp;A Guide 2019 


24 May 2020
Delisting Offers

Indian Delisting/Exit Offers - Know Your Process and The Games Played 


19 Jun 2020
Failed Exit Offers

Failed Exit Offers in India: Lessons for VEDL, ADANI, and HEXW? 


27 May 2020

Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

Vedanta Delisting Offer - How It Goes From Here 


22 Jun 2020
Vedanta Limited

Vedanta Delisting Offer: Opportunities and Timing 


25 Jun 2020
Vedanta Limited

Vedanta Buyout Loan = HUGE Hindustan Zinc Div But May Change Vedanta RBB Timing 


14 Jul 2020
Vedanta Limited

Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Discovered Price 


18 Aug 2020
Vedanta Limited

Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Delisting Offer TIMING 




<p>On Friday 23 August 2019, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> shareholders <a href="https://www.newglobaltechgroup.com/media/1080/sens-results-of-egm-23-august-2019.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> (with the requisite majority 100% of A shares FOR, 95.51% of N Shares FOR) the special resolution as set out in the notice of the EGM pertaining to the approval of matters relating to the implementation of the Proposed Transaction, which is to form a new global consumer internet group, listing its global consumer internet assets held by Myriad International Holdings N.V. (previously referred to as NewCo and to be renamed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>, a subsidiary of Naspers, incorporated in accordance with Dutch laws, on Euronext Amsterdam with a secondary, inward listing on the Main Board of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.</p>
<p>So that's done. </p>
<p>Now we get down to the nitty gritty. And it is a little gritty. </p>
<p>First, the <a href="https://www.newglobaltechgroup.com/media/1083/amco-11006822-v1-prosus_n_v__prospectus.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prospectus</a> is out as of Monday at <a href="http://www.prosus.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">www.prosus.com</a>. </p>
<p>This is a situation which deserves a bit of thinking and a bit of arithmetic. So we have both below.</p>
<p>I'll have more in the follow-up piece out shortly which will look at indices, flows, ownership, and some of the more subtle details of the mechanics of the listings and future flows. </p>

On Friday 23 August 2019, Naspers (NPN SJ) shareholders approved (with the requisite majority 100% of A shares FOR, 95.51% of N Shares FOR) the special resolution as set out in the notice of the EGM pertaining to the approval of matters relating to the implementation of the Proposed Transaction, which is to form a new global consumer internet group, listing its global consumer internet assets held by Myriad International Holdings N.V. (previously referred to as NewCo and to be renamed Prosus (PRX NA), a subsidiary of Naspers, incorporated in accordance with Dutch laws, on Euronext Amsterdam with a secondary, inward listing on the Main Board of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
So that's done. 
Now we get down to the nitty gritty. And it is a little gritty. 
First, the Prospectus is out as of Monday at www.prosus.com. 
This is a situation which deserves a bit of thinking and a bit of arithmetic. So we have both below.
I'll have more in the follow-up piece out shortly which will look at indices, flows, ownership, and some of the more subtle details of the mechanics of the listings and future flows. 

Naspers & Prosus - Another Think Part I:  About The Discount

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a> is a pure play on the uranium price</li>
<li>Spot Price $28.90/lb U<sub>3</sub>O<sub>8</sub> &amp; L.T. Price remains $32/lb U<sub>3</sub>O<sub>8</sub>
</li>
<li><strong>Share price trading at ~2% discount to NPV</strong></li>
<li>Despite recent production cuts, primary &amp; secondary supplies cover world demand</li>
<li>Est. surplus ~500ktU, representing six years of global primary production</li>
<li>Global nuclear generation peaked in 2006</li>
<li><strong>Forecast world uranium demand to decline between 25% and 40% by 2050</strong></li>
<li>
<strong>1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 p</strong>s NPV<sub>4%</sub> assuming $24/lb U<sub>3</sub>O<sub>8</sub>
</li>
<li>
<strong>3-year Target Price £1.57-1.77 ps</strong> NPV<sub>4%</sub> assuming $21/lb U<sub>3</sub>O</li>
</ul>



Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN) is a pure play on the uranium price
Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 &amp; L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8

Share price trading at ~2% discount to NPV
Despite recent production cuts, primary &amp; secondary supplies cover world demand
Est. surplus ~500ktU, representing six years of global primary production
Global nuclear generation peaked in 2006
Forecast world uranium demand to decline between 25% and 40% by 2050

1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8


3-year Target Price £1.57-1.77 ps NPV4% assuming $21/lb U3O


Yellow Cake (YCA) - Great Idea, Wrong Time!

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto is a leading British-Australian multinational mining and metals company that specializes in the exploration, mining, and processing of mineral resources. Its core products include iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, England.

Price Gauge
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Rio Tinto (RIO LN)

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure - Highly Curious Timing

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure aims to raise around US$500m in its Australian IPO. DBI is owned by Brookfield Asset Management.

Sumeet Singh

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

TMI

Elan Gore

Vedanta: Reaching The End Game

The prospective Vedanta Resources (VED LN) Delisting Offer for its subsidiary Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) is nearing its end-game. In my last insight...

Travis Lundy

Naspers & Prosus - Another Think Part I: About The Discount

On Friday 23 August 2019, Naspers (NPN SJ) shareholders approved (with the requisite majority 100% of A shares FOR, 95.51% of N Shares FOR) the...

Travis Lundy

Yellow Cake (YCA) - Great Idea, Wrong Time!

Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN) is a pure play on the uranium price Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 & L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8 Share price trading...

Boost Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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