Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Evening from Europe!What a bloodbath in long oil bets today, and we are bleeding alongside the crowd as we are down 5.7% in our long bets in the CLN4 future.</li><li>The OPEC+ meeting over the weekend did not fuel a bullish supply narrative as we can (at best) expect the status quo.</li><li>The supply cuts were prolonged (as was our base-case), but assuming that the cuts will actually be reversed by June or September 2025, which seems to be the forward guidance from OPEC now, we’d have to see a much stronger business cycle in Manufacturing for that to match with the demand side.</li></ul>

Evening from Europe!What a bloodbath in long oil bets today, and we are bleeding alongside the crowd as we are down 5.7% in our long bets in the CLN4 future.The OPEC+ meeting over the weekend did not fuel a bullish supply narrative as we can (at best) expect the status quo.The supply cuts were prolonged (as was our base-case), but assuming that the cuts will actually be reversed by June or September 2025, which seems to be the forward guidance from OPEC now, we’d have to see a much stronger business cycle in Manufacturing for that to match with the demand side.

Energy Cable: OPEC needs a big rebound on the demand side

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Commodities

<ul><li>Brent crude has weakened by $10 since early April, with the prompt time spread indicating plentiful supply relative to consumption</li><li>Demand for crude oil for combustive fuels like gasoline and diesel is expected to peak towards the end of the decade, while demand for natural gas liquids used in petrochemical production is set to rise</li><li>Preliminary demand data for April showed signs of improvement, with observable oil inventories increasing, particularly in China, due to lower oil prices prompting stockpiling</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Brent crude has weakened by $10 since early April, with the prompt time spread indicating plentiful supply relative to consumptionDemand for crude oil for combustive fuels like gasoline and diesel is expected to peak towards the end of the decade, while demand for natural gas liquids used in petrochemical production is set to risePreliminary demand data for April showed signs of improvement, with observable oil inventories increasing, particularly in China, due to lower oil prices prompting stockpilingThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Demand for Oil Is Good, Just Not for Crude

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>OPEC’s 12-members command 40% of the world's crude production. Combine that with Russia and its allies, the OPEC+ represents three-fifths of global oil production.</li>
<li>Although chances of OPEC+ keeping its supply cuts intact remain high, negotiations between the members are expected to be rocky.</li>
<li>On average, IV eases as the meeting approaches. Post-meeting, IV shrinks further. IV averaging hides extreme moves. Observations over the last 19 meetings exhibit a standard deviation of 10%.</li>
</ul>


OPEC’s 12-members command 40% of the world's crude production. Combine that with Russia and its allies, the OPEC+ represents three-fifths of global oil production.
Although chances of OPEC+ keeping its supply cuts intact remain high, negotiations between the members are expected to be rocky.
On average, IV eases as the meeting approaches. Post-meeting, IV shrinks further. IV averaging hides extreme moves. Observations over the last 19 meetings exhibit a standard deviation of 10%.


Unpacking Crude Oil IV Behaviour During OPEC Meetings

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 5700 year end target remains intact after MONTHLY breakout. </li>
<li>Copper and silver rally to resume with dollar potentially falling.</li>
<li>Semis continue to lead tech and look for software to join.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P 5700 year end target remains intact after MONTHLY breakout. 
Copper and silver rally to resume with dollar potentially falling.
Semis continue to lead tech and look for software to join.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
<li>We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail </li>
</ul>


New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.
We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.
Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail 


Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Energy Cable: OPEC needs a big rebound on the demand side

Evening from Europe! What a bloodbath in long oil bets today, and we are bleeding alongside the crowd as we are down 5.7% in our long bets in the...

Steno Research

Global Commodities: Demand for Oil Is Good, Just Not for Crude

The decline in Brent crude prices due to weakening spreads and a shift in demand towards petrochemicals and natural gas, accompanied by signs of...

At Any Rate

Unpacking Crude Oil IV Behaviour During OPEC Meetings

OPEC+ controls 60% of global oil production, but negotiations for supply cuts may be challenging. Implied volatility of WTI tends to decrease post...

Mint Finance

Commodity Comeback

S&P 5700 year-end target remains intact after breakout, copper and silver rally expected as dollar falls, semis leading tech with software to follow.

Douglas Busch

Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

There are few things more bullish than Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs $ACWI $ACWX $EFA $EEM; Buys in Tech $TSM; Global Energy Sector...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Energy Cable: OPEC needs a big rebound on the demand side

Evening from Europe! What a bloodbath in long oil bets today, and we are bleeding alongside the crowd as we are down 5.7% in our long bets in the...

Steno Research

Global Commodities: Demand for Oil Is Good, Just Not for Crude

The decline in Brent crude prices due to weakening spreads and a shift in demand towards petrochemicals and natural gas, accompanied by signs of...

At Any Rate

Unpacking Crude Oil IV Behaviour During OPEC Meetings

​OPEC+ controls 60% of global oil production, but negotiations for supply cuts may be challenging. Implied volatility of WTI tends to decrease post...

Mint Finance

Commodity Comeback

​S&P 5700 year-end target remains intact after breakout, copper and silver rally expected as dollar falls, semis leading tech with software to follow.

Douglas Busch

Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

There are few things more bullish than Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs $ACWI $ACWX $EFA $EEM; Buys in Tech $TSM; Global Energy Sector...

Vermilion Research

OPEC+ controls 60% of global oil production, but negotiations for supply cuts may be challenging. Implied volatility of WTI tends to decrease post...

S&P 5700 year-end target remains intact after breakout, copper and silver rally expected as dollar falls, semis leading tech with software to follow.