Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> - this is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?</li>
</ul>


Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. 

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) - this is done.

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

<ul>
<li>I tally 54 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma (possible four): Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/superloop-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23604:1" rel="noopener">Superloop (SLC AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantm-intellectual-property" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24317:1" rel="noopener">Qantm Intellectual (QIP AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a>'s rumoured approaches. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weiqiao-textile-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3690:1" rel="noopener">Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 54 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma (possible four): Offers for Alumina (AWC AU), Superloop (SLC AU) &amp; Qantm Intellectual (QIP AU); Samsonite (1910 HK)'s ESR (1821 HK)'s rumoured approaches. 
Key updates took place on APM Human Services Internation (APM AU), Adbri (ABC AU), CSR Ltd (CSR AU), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), and Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Alumina, Superloop, Qantm, Samsonite, ESR, APM , Adbri, CSR, Outsourcing

<ul>
<li>For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

<ul>
<li>The hunter becomes the hunted. After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/superloop-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23604:1" rel="noopener">Superloop (SLC AU)</a> failed to clinch <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a> last year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aussie-broadband-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30812:1" rel="noopener">Aussie Broadband (ABB AU)</a> has now made an Offer for Superloop.</li>
<li>ABB's indicative Offer provides Superloop shareholders with 0.21 new ABB shares for each Superloop share held, or an indicative Offer price of A$0.95/share, a 33.2% premium to the three-month VWAP.</li>
<li>ABB has picked up 19.9% in Superloop, also at A$0.95/share. Superloop has yet to respond.  </li>
</ul>


The hunter becomes the hunted. After Superloop (SLC AU) failed to clinch Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) last year, Aussie Broadband (ABB AU) has now made an Offer for Superloop.
ABB's indicative Offer provides Superloop shareholders with 0.21 new ABB shares for each Superloop share held, or an indicative Offer price of A$0.95/share, a 33.2% premium to the three-month VWAP.
ABB has picked up 19.9% in Superloop, also at A$0.95/share. Superloop has yet to respond.  


ABB Targets Superloop After Taking Out Symbio

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Right on the heels of acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aussie-broadband-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30812:1" rel="noopener">Aussie Broadband (ABB AU)</a> has made a non-binding indicative offer to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/superloop-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23604:1" rel="noopener">Superloop (SLC AU)</a> private.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/superloop-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23604:1" rel="noopener">Superloop (SLC AU)</a> had initiated the proposal to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a> private before <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aussie-broadband-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30812:1" rel="noopener">Aussie Broadband (ABB AU)</a> swooped in. Now ABB has SLC in its sights.</li>
<li>The offer is a small premium and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aussie-broadband-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30812:1" rel="noopener">Aussie Broadband Pty Ltd (ABB AU)</a>'s 33.2% premium claim is disingenuous at best. Expect pushback from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/superloop-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23604:1" rel="noopener">Superloop Ltd (SLC AU)</a> Board.</li>
</ul>


Right on the heels of acquiring Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Aussie Broadband (ABB AU) has made a non-binding indicative offer to take Superloop (SLC AU) private.

Superloop (SLC AU) had initiated the proposal to take Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) private before Aussie Broadband (ABB AU) swooped in. Now ABB has SLC in its sights.
The offer is a small premium and Aussie Broadband Pty Ltd (ABB AU)'s 33.2% premium claim is disingenuous at best. Expect pushback from the Superloop Ltd (SLC AU) Board.


Aussie Broadband's Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Superloop

Australia

Superloop Limited operates as a telecommunications infrastructure company. The Company designs, constructs, and operates underground fibre-optic cable network. Superloop conducts business throughout the Asia Pacific region.

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Superloop Ltd (SLC AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Alumina, Superloop, Qantm, Samsonite, ESR, APM , Adbri, CSR, Outsourcing

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

ABB Targets Superloop After Taking Out Symbio

Trading tight at a gross spread of ~0.5%. Unless you believe this warrants a bump - I'm not convinced it does - there's probably not much to do...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Broadband's Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Superloop

ABB has made an NBIO to acquire Superloop. SLC shareholders will receive 0.21 ABB shares for each SLC share. Premium is low and the SLC Board is...

Brian Freitas

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