Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A double dose of StubWorld this week. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</strong></a>'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a></strong> tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Japan Post are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


A double dose of StubWorld this week. Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as Cathay Pacific (293 HK) tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants.
Preceding my comments on Japan Post are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire Drifts Lower As Cathay Faces Discrimination Claim

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>Given constrained outbound air capacity, we're surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY</li>
<li>If planes don't begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China's travel recovery </li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels
Given constrained outbound air capacity, we're surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY
If planes don't begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China's travel recovery 


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On Monday evening in the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> reported Q422 results that beat low expectations, but shares in the US traded down about 3% in Tuesday's session</li>
<li>As for guidance, management offered few specifics but noted a sharp improvement in booking activity early in 2023, but also highlighted an outbound capacity bottleneck at the airlines</li>
<li>Just as Covid's negative impacts papered over the secular challenges facing Trip.com, the dramatic near-term recovery in travel activity also obscures longstanding threats</li>
</ul>


On Monday evening in the US, Trip.com (TCOM US) reported Q422 results that beat low expectations, but shares in the US traded down about 3% in Tuesday's session
As for guidance, management offered few specifics but noted a sharp improvement in booking activity early in 2023, but also highlighted an outbound capacity bottleneck at the airlines
Just as Covid's negative impacts papered over the secular challenges facing Trip.com, the dramatic near-term recovery in travel activity also obscures longstanding threats


Trip.com Q4/2022 Results: Back to Reality?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Sa Sa International Hldgs / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We observed that businesses at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sa-sa-international-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20143:1" rel="noopener">Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)</a> have picked up during the Chinese New Year, but a significant overall significant recovery is still lacked.</li>
<li>The full relaxation of mainland-HK border control has brought about a 110% surge in mainland arrival between 6 Feb and 11 Feb. This suggests that momentum is clearly building up. </li>
<li>Sa Sa has embarked on strategies like re-opening important stores, selectively increase store counts and re-adjusting staff arrangement and opening hours to capture the opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We observed that businesses at Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK) have picked up during the Chinese New Year, but a significant overall significant recovery is still lacked.
The full relaxation of mainland-HK border control has brought about a 110% surge in mainland arrival between 6 Feb and 11 Feb. This suggests that momentum is clearly building up. 
Sa Sa has embarked on strategies like re-opening important stores, selectively increase store counts and re-adjusting staff arrangement and opening hours to capture the opportunities.


Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): On-Ground Observations and Outlook

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com</li>
<li>But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com
But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y
We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive


Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

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Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

StubWorld: Swire Drifts Lower As Cathay Faces Discrimination Claim

I prefer Pac here over Props, but it's not a high-conviction trade. Given the rebound, you could probably look to unwind a long Swire Pac (B) vs...

David Blennerhassett

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

Jan-Feb air traffic shows the beginnings of a recovery in Chinese travel activity, but we're surprised to see outbound flights with load factors of...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q4/2022 Results: Back to Reality?

As China emerges from Covid, old challenges remain for Trip.com. After posting solid Q422 results and pointing to signs of a strong recovery, these...

Daniel Hellberg

Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): On-Ground Observations and Outlook

Sa Sa's businesses have picked up during the Chinese New Year and we believe the momentum will further improve with the complete relaxation of...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

Trip.com reported Q3 results on Monday after the US close. Revenue growth was fine, but core margins continue to fall. We view the shares as...

Tracking Traffic

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