Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Analyzing last 18 year's year-on-year earnings growth patterns, we conclude that Asian earnings are highly cyclical, with average peak-to-trough length of 24-30 months, unless driven by a sharp liquidity spike.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese earnings cycles are at their peaks and HK/China is close. Among the large markets, only India is at the bottom of its earnings growth cycle. </li>
<li>Onshore China valuations could stay flat; Taiwan PE could correct more. HK and Korean PE should rise. Indian valuations could correct slightly, in line with previous earnings cycle bottoms.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing last 18 year's year-on-year earnings growth patterns, we conclude that Asian earnings are highly cyclical, with average peak-to-trough length of 24-30 months, unless driven by a sharp liquidity spike.
Korean and Taiwanese earnings cycles are at their peaks and HK/China is close. Among the large markets, only India is at the bottom of its earnings growth cycle. 
Onshore China valuations could stay flat; Taiwan PE could correct more. HK and Korean PE should rise. Indian valuations could correct slightly, in line with previous earnings cycle bottoms.


Asian Equities: Earnings Cycles Are at Different Stages in Different Asian Markets

<ul>
<li>Recent spike in oil prices and US yields is not deterring foreigners from buying Asian equities. After buying US$4.8bn of Asian Equities in August, FIIs have bought US$1.8bn in September.</li>
<li>In August FIIs bought Taiwan (US$11bn) and India (US$3.1bn) and sold Korea (-US$8.5bn). In September they have bought Taiwan (US$2bn) and Korea (US$1bn) and have sold India (-US$1.25bn).</li>
<li>We believe foreign buying shall bounce back in tech-heavy Korea and Taiwan. FIIs would likely buy India too, but in smaller measure than North Asia. We are cautious about ASEAN.</li>
</ul>


Recent spike in oil prices and US yields is not deterring foreigners from buying Asian equities. After buying US$4.8bn of Asian Equities in August, FIIs have bought US$1.8bn in September.
In August FIIs bought Taiwan (US$11bn) and India (US$3.1bn) and sold Korea (-US$8.5bn). In September they have bought Taiwan (US$2bn) and Korea (US$1bn) and have sold India (-US$1.25bn).
We believe foreign buying shall bounce back in tech-heavy Korea and Taiwan. FIIs would likely buy India too, but in smaller measure than North Asia. We are cautious about ASEAN.


Asian Equities: Foreigners Are Buying Korea and Taiwan Again; India and Thailand Being Sold

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>In Depth: China’s Transport Price War Shows What Happens When Trains Catch Up to Planes When confronted with the choice of flying or taking the train across China, a growing chorus of travelers is defaulting to a single answer: “whichever is cheaper.”</li><li>This encapsulates a profound shift underway in China’s transportation market.</li><li>Analysis: Why China Is Rewriting Its Stock Market Refinancing Rules</li></ul>

In Depth: China’s Transport Price War Shows What Happens When Trains Catch Up to Planes When confronted with the choice of flying or taking the train across China, a growing chorus of travelers is defaulting to a single answer: “whichever is cheaper.”This encapsulates a profound shift underway in China’s transportation market.Analysis: Why China Is Rewriting Its Stock Market Refinancing Rules

CX Daily: China’s Transport Price War Shows What Happens When Trains Catch Up to Planes 

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We screen for HSI ADD candidates ahead of the review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.</li>
<li>Four stocks are screened as mid-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.</li>
<li>Three of the four are in the most underweight industry group, and the fourth is in Healthcare.</li>
</ul>


We screen for HSI ADD candidates ahead of the review result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.
Four stocks are screened as mid-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.
Three of the four are in the most underweight industry group, and the fourth is in Healthcare.


<ul>
<li>Record high US yields could impact Asia through rising cost of capital dampening growth and valuations. Besides, foreign money could continue to move towards safe haven US treasuries.</li>
<li>The Asian markets where central banks are forced to hike policy rates, and the markets that are steeply valued relative to earnings growth or ROEs could be particularly vulnerable.</li>
<li>Korea, Indonesia and Philippines are hiking rates. Judging by inflation trajectories and real rates, India and Thailand could join later this year. India and Taiwan appear overvalued relative to ROEs.</li>
</ul>


Record high US yields could impact Asia through rising cost of capital dampening growth and valuations. Besides, foreign money could continue to move towards safe haven US treasuries.
The Asian markets where central banks are forced to hike policy rates, and the markets that are steeply valued relative to earnings growth or ROEs could be particularly vulnerable.
Korea, Indonesia and Philippines are hiking rates. Judging by inflation trajectories and real rates, India and Thailand could join later this year. India and Taiwan appear overvalued relative to ROEs.


Asian Equities: Watch Interest Rates, Inflation Trajectories and Valuations

China

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited operates metal mineral resources exploration and mining businesses. The Company produces gold, copper, zinc, iron, and other base metals. Zijin Mining Group also conducts metal trade and investment businesses domestically and internationally.

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Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)

Asian Equities: Earnings Cycles Are at Different Stages in Different Asian Markets

Asian earnings growth is cyclical. KR & TW are at their cyclical peaks, HK/CN are close. Earnings growth cycle in India is at its trough. HK & KR...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Foreigners Are Buying Korea and Taiwan Again; India and Thailand Being Sold

Recent spike in oil prices & US yields is not deterring FIIs from buying Asian equities. After buying US$4.8bn in Aug, FIIs have bought US$1.8bn in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CX Daily: China’s Transport Price War Shows What Happens When Trains Catch Up to Planes

In Depth: China’s Transport Price War Shows What Happens When Trains Catch Up to Planes When confronted with the choice of flying or...

Caixin Global

HSI Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect 4 mid-conviction ADDs with no DELETE, and Energy, Materials, Industrials, Conglomerates remains the most underweight industry group in...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Watch Interest Rates, Inflation Trajectories and Valuations

Record high US yields could depress Asian growth & valuations. Besides KR, ID & PH who are hiking rates, India & TH could join later. India & TW...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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